KLCI closes 11.83 points lower at 1246.58 . KLK down 30 sen to RM 16.20
Hang Seng index dropped 3%, shanghai A also down by 3 %. Nikkei 225 also dropped by 2.3%.
Barron’s says commodity prices may fall by half as value of corn, wheat, copper overshoot on speculation. CPO fell RM 148 to RM3402 at 4pm.
MAS places order for 35 Boeing B 737-800 aircraft, option for 30 more, at total cost of US$4.2 bil(RM13.4bil).
Kub sells Kub.Com building in KL to Park Residence Development for RM 86.5 m. Kub bought it in 1999 for RM62.3 M.
Multi-Code lodges police report over certain transaction of bank accounts without supporting documents by ex-MD, certain ex-directors.
Proton is recalling all 34,000 Savvy cars for free inspection over possible problem with rear-wheel bearing,
Fish rearer Xian Leng FY Jan 31 net profit at RM 1.7m, down 75% from RM 7 m a year ago. Quarter 4 loss RM 701,000 from RM 2.28 m profit a year ago.
Bursa Securities allows OCI appeal against delisting. OCI has until April 30 to submit regularization plan.
Kookmin Bank says to sell 25 % stake in Singapore’s Sorak to Maybank for US$378m(RM1.2 b). Sorak own 56% of Bank International Indonesia.
There is no plan to raise the price of rice in view of surging prices of commodities, says DPM. He said that the government is monitoring and stepping up efforts to increase supply.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Market reading for Monday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 86 points(0.7% to close at 12216.40, the S&P 500 Index lost 11 points(0.8) to 1315, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 20 points (0.9%) to 2261.
This might affect our market on Monday.
Malaysian market seems to be turning to an uptrend cycle on March 18, 2008 at 1166.83. And it would normally take a while before declining. It will not be affected by the external factors if uptrend is ascertain.
There is a piece of news saying that PKR defacto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim
will create a by-election after April 20 so that when he gets elected, he will become the opposition leader in Parliament.
Please refer to Guang Ming Daily on Monday for the complete report.
This might affect our market on Monday.
Malaysian market seems to be turning to an uptrend cycle on March 18, 2008 at 1166.83. And it would normally take a while before declining. It will not be affected by the external factors if uptrend is ascertain.
There is a piece of news saying that PKR defacto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim
will create a by-election after April 20 so that when he gets elected, he will become the opposition leader in Parliament.
Please refer to Guang Ming Daily on Monday for the complete report.
Friday, March 28, 2008
KLCI going up again
KLCI closes 4.38 points up at 1258.4, boosted by Sime +20sen to RM 9.45; MISC + 40 sen to RM 9.40; Maybank +15 sen to RM8.55. All Asian markets also went up higher.
Transmile MD Wong Yoke Ming resigns today and the director Liu Tai Shin takes over as new MD. The company share price dropped 7 sen to RM 2.33.
Bank Rakyat’s personal financing pawnbroking assets to be sold or transferred to Cagamas in returns for more financing under news Islamic deal.
PA Resources MD Chong Sze San buy 1.84% or 2.23 m more PA shares for RM 2 mil or 89.6 sen each, up stake to 27.75% or 33.7 m shares.
New substantial shareholder for Supercomal with Kong Kok Keong, who bought 21.32 m shares or 8.77 % from open market on March 21.
Malaysia’s economy will grow at a slower pace at 5.8% from 6.3% last year, says UN survey report. Main drag is weaker E&E demand from US.
Ewein Bhd debuts at RM 0.80, up 10 sen against its IPO price of RM 0.70.
Transmile MD Wong Yoke Ming resigns today and the director Liu Tai Shin takes over as new MD. The company share price dropped 7 sen to RM 2.33.
Bank Rakyat’s personal financing pawnbroking assets to be sold or transferred to Cagamas in returns for more financing under news Islamic deal.
PA Resources MD Chong Sze San buy 1.84% or 2.23 m more PA shares for RM 2 mil or 89.6 sen each, up stake to 27.75% or 33.7 m shares.
New substantial shareholder for Supercomal with Kong Kok Keong, who bought 21.32 m shares or 8.77 % from open market on March 21.
Malaysia’s economy will grow at a slower pace at 5.8% from 6.3% last year, says UN survey report. Main drag is weaker E&E demand from US.
Ewein Bhd debuts at RM 0.80, up 10 sen against its IPO price of RM 0.70.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Market up again
KLCI closed 8.6 points up at 1254.03. There are 801 million shares changed hand valued at RM1.5 billion. There are 473 counters up and 251 counters down.
Counters to monitor are:
MISC + 75 sen to RM 9.00; Public bank-F + 60 sen to RM 11.00; however, Maybank was down 55 sen to RM 8.40.
Shanghai A shares fell 5.43%
Sp Setia quarter net profit RM 48.52 m vs RM 46.74 m a year ago. Revenue RM 303.65 m vs RM 255.2m. EPS 4.81 sen vs 4.65 sen. No dividend declared.
Frontken seeks SC nod for 6-month extension to Oct 11 to place out 47.5 m shares. Shares fell 2 sen to close at 51 sen.
Fitch says Maybank’s BII purchase is slightly negative near term but it brings diversification benefits in longer term to become a regional bank.
Kumpulan Darul Ehsan bought 18.8 m KPS shares or 3.9 % on March 21, upped stake to 285 m or 60%. KPS fell recently on water project concern.
Transmile is up 36 sen to RM 2.47 at 9.17 am, rose 45 sen yesterday. Bursa queried the company but it said it is unaware of the surge. It has announced a net loss of RM 279 million in FY 07.
Tanjong posts RM 554.46 m net profit for FY ended Jan 31, 2008, up from
RM 509.53m a year ago. Final dividend is 34 sen and special dividend is 14 sen.
26/3 AMMB is to roll out Islamic stockbroking ops in Malaysia by June-July, also it is eyeing Vietnam for investment banking.
Counters to monitor are:
MISC + 75 sen to RM 9.00; Public bank-F + 60 sen to RM 11.00; however, Maybank was down 55 sen to RM 8.40.
Shanghai A shares fell 5.43%
Sp Setia quarter net profit RM 48.52 m vs RM 46.74 m a year ago. Revenue RM 303.65 m vs RM 255.2m. EPS 4.81 sen vs 4.65 sen. No dividend declared.
Frontken seeks SC nod for 6-month extension to Oct 11 to place out 47.5 m shares. Shares fell 2 sen to close at 51 sen.
Fitch says Maybank’s BII purchase is slightly negative near term but it brings diversification benefits in longer term to become a regional bank.
Kumpulan Darul Ehsan bought 18.8 m KPS shares or 3.9 % on March 21, upped stake to 285 m or 60%. KPS fell recently on water project concern.
Transmile is up 36 sen to RM 2.47 at 9.17 am, rose 45 sen yesterday. Bursa queried the company but it said it is unaware of the surge. It has announced a net loss of RM 279 million in FY 07.
Tanjong posts RM 554.46 m net profit for FY ended Jan 31, 2008, up from
RM 509.53m a year ago. Final dividend is 34 sen and special dividend is 14 sen.
26/3 AMMB is to roll out Islamic stockbroking ops in Malaysia by June-July, also it is eyeing Vietnam for investment banking.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Market continued to surge
Market continues to surge. KLCI closed 15.47 points up at 1245.42. There are 760 million shares changed hand valued at 1.2 billion. There are 409 counters up and 311 counters down.
Counters under watch-list are: Tanjong + RM 1 to RM 16.90; Transmile +45c to RM2.11, Pos +34 c to RM 2.08.
Gamuda quarter two earnings surged to RM 90.1 m from RM 46.6m a year ago. Revenue is RM 485m versus RM 331m. EPS 4.51c versus 2.93 c. No dividend versus 23c a year ago.
SapuraCrest Petroleum FY net profit is RM78 m versus net loss RM 17.7 m a year ago. Revenue is RM 2.26b versus RM 1.76 b. Q4 net profit is RM 33.3m versus RM7.3m a year ago.
Total deposits mobilized by banking sector RM869.9b or 135.6% GDP. Loans, financing by banking sector increased 8.6% to RM 644.2b or 100.4% of GDP.
Bank Negara(Central bank of Malaysia): Economy will grow by 5-6% this year, less than that of 2007 which is 6.3%. Construction will be up by 5.5%; agriculture up 3.4%; mining 6%; manufacturing 1.8% ; services 7.7%.
Inflation forecast is at 2.5% to 3% in 2008 from 2% last year.
Manufactured exports will fall by 1.6% this year due to weak E&E demand from US.
Banking system’s pre-tax profit is up by 36.4% to RM 17.7b in 2007 on diversified income sources. Return on average equity at 19.7%.
Vehicles sales in February is at 38,587, down 7,241 units from January, says MAA. It expects March sales to pick up with new models launching.
Counters under watch-list are: Tanjong + RM 1 to RM 16.90; Transmile +45c to RM2.11, Pos +34 c to RM 2.08.
Gamuda quarter two earnings surged to RM 90.1 m from RM 46.6m a year ago. Revenue is RM 485m versus RM 331m. EPS 4.51c versus 2.93 c. No dividend versus 23c a year ago.
SapuraCrest Petroleum FY net profit is RM78 m versus net loss RM 17.7 m a year ago. Revenue is RM 2.26b versus RM 1.76 b. Q4 net profit is RM 33.3m versus RM7.3m a year ago.
Total deposits mobilized by banking sector RM869.9b or 135.6% GDP. Loans, financing by banking sector increased 8.6% to RM 644.2b or 100.4% of GDP.
Bank Negara(Central bank of Malaysia): Economy will grow by 5-6% this year, less than that of 2007 which is 6.3%. Construction will be up by 5.5%; agriculture up 3.4%; mining 6%; manufacturing 1.8% ; services 7.7%.
Inflation forecast is at 2.5% to 3% in 2008 from 2% last year.
Manufactured exports will fall by 1.6% this year due to weak E&E demand from US.
Banking system’s pre-tax profit is up by 36.4% to RM 17.7b in 2007 on diversified income sources. Return on average equity at 19.7%.
Vehicles sales in February is at 38,587, down 7,241 units from January, says MAA. It expects March sales to pick up with new models launching.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
KLCI Surged 24.34 points, market is getting better
KLCI surges 24.34 points or 2.03% to 1225.38 at midday. There are 506 million shares changed hand valued at RM 608 million.
Bursa is up 55sen to RM 8.80
The regional markets are rising as well, with Hang Seng Index up by 4.5%; Singapore STI rises 2.4%
CPO third-month futures surges RM 108 to RM 3,448 per tonne.
Malaysia PM Abdullah says that the stock markets are to be streamlined; Main and second Boards of Bursa Malaysia to be merged and Mesdaq is to be revamped.
The Government is to set up the third credit rating agency and allow foreign strategic partners to hold 49% equity interest.
Singapore’s GKG Investment emerges as a substantial shareholder in Lion Industries with 5.25% or 37.36 million shares on March 19.
Bursa is up 55sen to RM 8.80
The regional markets are rising as well, with Hang Seng Index up by 4.5%; Singapore STI rises 2.4%
CPO third-month futures surges RM 108 to RM 3,448 per tonne.
Malaysia PM Abdullah says that the stock markets are to be streamlined; Main and second Boards of Bursa Malaysia to be merged and Mesdaq is to be revamped.
The Government is to set up the third credit rating agency and allow foreign strategic partners to hold 49% equity interest.
Singapore’s GKG Investment emerges as a substantial shareholder in Lion Industries with 5.25% or 37.36 million shares on March 19.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Market seems to be coming back
Market seems to be coming back. KLCI closed at 1201.02, up11.96pts. BCHB up 35sens to 9.80; Public Bank up 25 sens to RM 10.20; Puncak +45 sens to 2.96, Ringgit is at 3.206 to US$1.
CPO futures surge 5% or RM183 to RM3,518 per tonne for April delivery. US crude oil at US$100.98 per barrel.
Hicom extends VGO for remaining 20.95% stake in EON or 52.14m shares for RM 109.51m or at offer price of RM2.10 per share.
CPO futures surge 5% or RM183 to RM3,518 per tonne for April delivery. US crude oil at US$100.98 per barrel.
Hicom extends VGO for remaining 20.95% stake in EON or 52.14m shares for RM 109.51m or at offer price of RM2.10 per share.
Friday, March 21, 2008
KL market is still uncertain
KLCI closed 2.52 points up at 1,189.06. Volume 385m valued at RM 646 m. Up counters: 285, down counters: 376. KLK +70 sen to RM 16, Kencana +16 sen to 1.39
EON Bank sees its credit card circulation increase by 20%-25% to 650,000 this year, in line with market growth. Now has 6% market share.
Konsortium Logistik sees 30% revenue growth for FY08, boost from construction division. In FY07, revenue RM 26.5 m vs RM 14.6 m in FY06.
ECM Libra’s 8.4 m shares or 1.01% done off-market at RM 5.76m or 68.5c a piece. Shares up 1.5 c to 63 sen at 4.02pm.
Crude oil futures at US$101.45, down US$1.10; gold US$916.60, off Monday high of US$1038; but CPO up RM 26 to RM 3,370.00
Maybank inks deal to buy 15% of Vietnam’s An Binh Commercial Joint Stock Bank for RM430m cash, may take up additional 5 % stake later.
EON Bank sees its credit card circulation increase by 20%-25% to 650,000 this year, in line with market growth. Now has 6% market share.
Konsortium Logistik sees 30% revenue growth for FY08, boost from construction division. In FY07, revenue RM 26.5 m vs RM 14.6 m in FY06.
ECM Libra’s 8.4 m shares or 1.01% done off-market at RM 5.76m or 68.5c a piece. Shares up 1.5 c to 63 sen at 4.02pm.
Crude oil futures at US$101.45, down US$1.10; gold US$916.60, off Monday high of US$1038; but CPO up RM 26 to RM 3,370.00
Maybank inks deal to buy 15% of Vietnam’s An Binh Commercial Joint Stock Bank for RM430m cash, may take up additional 5 % stake later.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
KLCI closed 6.52 pt up
KLCI closes 6.52 pts up to 1186.54 on late buying. Maybank up 20 sen to RM 6.70. AMMB +32 sen to RM 3.48.
Most key Asian markets closed higher because of Dow factor.
US Fed cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.25% . DJIA surged 3.51% or 420 points to 12392.66. At 8.31am, Nikkei 225 +2.8 %.
Astro net lossRM 6.16m for FY ended Jan 31, 2008 from net profit RM 160.43m year ago.
Most key Asian markets closed higher because of Dow factor.
US Fed cut interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.25% . DJIA surged 3.51% or 420 points to 12392.66. At 8.31am, Nikkei 225 +2.8 %.
Astro net lossRM 6.16m for FY ended Jan 31, 2008 from net profit RM 160.43m year ago.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
The market seems to be better after the PM announced its new cabinet line up. KLCI closed 2.49 pt up at 1180.02. There are 700 m shares changed hand valued at 1.48 b.
Risers 413 and there are 360 losers.
MRCB up 18 sen to 1.33, JAKS up 11 sens to 0.645,Equine up 13 sen to 0.885. KPS went limit up to close at 1.37(+27 sen).
CPO futures fell RaM 300 to RM 3300. IOIcorp down 25 sen to RM 6.65 and Sime down 25 sen to RM 9.15.
CPO 3-month futures hit limit down fell 10% or RM 360 to 3240 a tonne dragged down by sharp falls of global grain vegetable oils.
IOICorp buying oil palm companies owning 44350 ha in Sarawak for RM 439.85 m of
44350 ha, it said 13500 ha planted with oil palm.
SPSetia says it can meet RM 1.8 B original sales target in FY 08 despite earlier worst case scenario of RM 1.5 B due to local council delays.
Stan Chart Bank projects Malaysia GDP growth at 4.2 % this year due to concern of external factors. Government forecast 6% to 6.5%
Risers 413 and there are 360 losers.
MRCB up 18 sen to 1.33, JAKS up 11 sens to 0.645,Equine up 13 sen to 0.885. KPS went limit up to close at 1.37(+27 sen).
CPO futures fell RaM 300 to RM 3300. IOIcorp down 25 sen to RM 6.65 and Sime down 25 sen to RM 9.15.
CPO 3-month futures hit limit down fell 10% or RM 360 to 3240 a tonne dragged down by sharp falls of global grain vegetable oils.
IOICorp buying oil palm companies owning 44350 ha in Sarawak for RM 439.85 m of
44350 ha, it said 13500 ha planted with oil palm.
SPSetia says it can meet RM 1.8 B original sales target in FY 08 despite earlier worst case scenario of RM 1.5 B due to local council delays.
Stan Chart Bank projects Malaysia GDP growth at 4.2 % this year due to concern of external factors. Government forecast 6% to 6.5%
Monday, March 17, 2008
KLCI closed 17.3 pt down
KLCI closed 17.3 points down at 1177.5. Bursa down 50 sen to RM 8.40; KLK - 50 sen to RM 15. Hong Kong down 1,152 or 5.8%; Nikkei 225, down 3.7%
KLCI fell 16.2 pt or 1.35% to 1178.65 at noon. Nikkei 225 dropped 3.34%, Hang Seng Index -4%. KLK down 50 sen to RM 15, Bursa dropped 45 sen to RM 8.45.
US dollar falls to 12-yr low against yen at 95.76 yen, lowest since Aug 15, 1995. At 11.30 am, US$1 at 96.5 yen.
CIMB buys 19.99% China's Bank of Yingkou for RM156.2m, or 1.58 time book value. BCBH flat RM9.30 at 9.49 am.
KLCI fell 16.2 pt or 1.35% to 1178.65 at noon. Nikkei 225 dropped 3.34%, Hang Seng Index -4%. KLK down 50 sen to RM 15, Bursa dropped 45 sen to RM 8.45.
US dollar falls to 12-yr low against yen at 95.76 yen, lowest since Aug 15, 1995. At 11.30 am, US$1 at 96.5 yen.
CIMB buys 19.99% China's Bank of Yingkou for RM156.2m, or 1.58 time book value. BCBH flat RM9.30 at 9.49 am.
Market Outlook for March 17
US market tumbled Friday after a plan to alleviate a liquidity crisis at Bear Stearns Cos. touched off concerns about the severity of credit troubles. The Dow Jones Industrial average dropped 194.65 points to 11951.09.
The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index closed down 27.34 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 51.12 to 2212.49.
The fell of US markets might affect the markets in our region today.
However, there are news coming out from the US financial circle that the Fed might further cut rates to rescue the markets. If it is true, the markets will stage a rebound.
Liquidities have flowed to the commodity markets because they felt that the latter are safe heavens.
It was reported that stock market investors Friday were eyeing dwindling dollar and events in the soaring commodities market. Gold prices touched another fresh record at US 1005.5.
Light, sweet crude, which set a fresh record Thursday, fell 12 cents to $110.21 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. At press time, it is reported at 110.15. Oil came close to its record of $111 set Thurday.
The original report is in Chinese and it is published in Guang Ming Daily on Monday(March 17,2008) Penang Edition.
The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index closed down 27.34 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 51.12 to 2212.49.
The fell of US markets might affect the markets in our region today.
However, there are news coming out from the US financial circle that the Fed might further cut rates to rescue the markets. If it is true, the markets will stage a rebound.
Liquidities have flowed to the commodity markets because they felt that the latter are safe heavens.
It was reported that stock market investors Friday were eyeing dwindling dollar and events in the soaring commodities market. Gold prices touched another fresh record at US 1005.5.
Light, sweet crude, which set a fresh record Thursday, fell 12 cents to $110.21 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. At press time, it is reported at 110.15. Oil came close to its record of $111 set Thurday.
The original report is in Chinese and it is published in Guang Ming Daily on Monday(March 17,2008) Penang Edition.
Friday, March 14, 2008
KLCI fell 6.51 on Mar 14
KLCI fell 6.51 points to close at 1194.84 as losers outnumbered risers 427 to 278; Turnover was 515 mil shares worth RM 1.2 b.
KLCI just up 0.54 point to 1201.8 noon. Major Asian markets down, Shanghai A share fell 1.07% to 4,121; Nikkei 225 – 0.79%;Hang Seng-0.64%
Earlier, KLCI was up 10.7 pt to 1212 at 9.30am. KLK+40 sen to RM 16, Sime +15 sen to 9.85. Singapore +1.5%;Nikkei 225 +0.57$, Shanghai A -0.46%
Bursa Securities suspends Wimems from trading next Wednesday after failing to submit revamp plan to SC, other authorities within timeframe.
Ingress unit gets RM20.9 m transmission line project from Mahkota Technologies for Puchong Perdana substation.
Litrak gets SC nod for RM1.56 Islamic debt notes proposal, to be used to repay RM 1.2 b loans and remaining RM 300 m for working capital.
Rio Tinto Alcan, CMSB’s proposed US$2 b (RM 7b) aluminium smelter project in Similajau, Sarawak gets manufacturing licence from MIDA.
Hitech Ventures sold 3.7m H-Display shares on March 4 and 7, cut stake to 98.3m or 46.8%. Koh Kin Lip bought 5m shares from March 7-12.
KLCI just up 0.54 point to 1201.8 noon. Major Asian markets down, Shanghai A share fell 1.07% to 4,121; Nikkei 225 – 0.79%;Hang Seng-0.64%
Earlier, KLCI was up 10.7 pt to 1212 at 9.30am. KLK+40 sen to RM 16, Sime +15 sen to 9.85. Singapore +1.5%;Nikkei 225 +0.57$, Shanghai A -0.46%
Bursa Securities suspends Wimems from trading next Wednesday after failing to submit revamp plan to SC, other authorities within timeframe.
Ingress unit gets RM20.9 m transmission line project from Mahkota Technologies for Puchong Perdana substation.
Litrak gets SC nod for RM1.56 Islamic debt notes proposal, to be used to repay RM 1.2 b loans and remaining RM 300 m for working capital.
Rio Tinto Alcan, CMSB’s proposed US$2 b (RM 7b) aluminium smelter project in Similajau, Sarawak gets manufacturing licence from MIDA.
Hitech Ventures sold 3.7m H-Display shares on March 4 and 7, cut stake to 98.3m or 46.8%. Koh Kin Lip bought 5m shares from March 7-12.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
KLCI tumbled
KLCI tumbled 31.24 points (-2.5%) to close at 1201.35 in line with sharp decliners elsewhere;Hang Seng down 4.8 %,Nikkei 225 fell 3.3%
KLCI falls 26 pts or 2.1% to 1206.50 midday; Tenaga -35c to RM6.85;Bursa -35c to RM 8.95. Singapore -2.48% Nikkei 225 -2.84%
Kencana Petroleum’s 46 million shares or 5.09% stake done off-market at RM 61.18 million or RM 1.33 a piece. At 3.30pm, share price dropped 4 sen to RM 1.38.
Dayang to issue 85.57 m new shares under IPO, pf which 17.6 m for public. Dayang order book at RM 627m, also tendered for RM 595 m contract.
Ringgit strengthens to RM 3.1617 against a weak US$ as it trades at lowest since 1995 to the yen at 100.59.
Mayland Parkview ups L&G stake to 91 shares or 15.22% after buying 2.15 m L&G shares from March 3-10.
CIMB Group in talks to acquire a strategic stake in China’s Bank of Yingkou, which has total assets of RM3.23 b.
Our market down is it more because of US factor or regional factors or because of our local politics?
KLCI falls 26 pts or 2.1% to 1206.50 midday; Tenaga -35c to RM6.85;Bursa -35c to RM 8.95. Singapore -2.48% Nikkei 225 -2.84%
Kencana Petroleum’s 46 million shares or 5.09% stake done off-market at RM 61.18 million or RM 1.33 a piece. At 3.30pm, share price dropped 4 sen to RM 1.38.
Dayang to issue 85.57 m new shares under IPO, pf which 17.6 m for public. Dayang order book at RM 627m, also tendered for RM 595 m contract.
Ringgit strengthens to RM 3.1617 against a weak US$ as it trades at lowest since 1995 to the yen at 100.59.
Mayland Parkview ups L&G stake to 91 shares or 15.22% after buying 2.15 m L&G shares from March 3-10.
CIMB Group in talks to acquire a strategic stake in China’s Bank of Yingkou, which has total assets of RM3.23 b.
Our market down is it more because of US factor or regional factors or because of our local politics?
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
CI closed 26.05 higher
CI closed 26.05 points higher to 1232.59 in line with regional gains. Rising stocks led losers 595 to 197. 866 million shares worth RM 2.11 billion were traded.
Khazanah Nasional bought 17 million BCHB shares or 0.5% stake from March 4-6 via open market, up BCHB stake to 700 million shares or 20.76%
Dotcom darling Google wins European commission approval to acquire online ad firm Doubleclick, immediately seals the US$3.1 B(RM 10 Billion) deal.
CPO futures down RM 104 to Rm 3734 at midday; but plantation stocks up.
EPF total income for 4Q 2007 at RM 3.8 b down 8.3% from RM 4.15 b in 3rdQ. Income from equity fell 27 % to RM 881 million in 4Q from 1.14 b in 3Q.
China's yuan at 7.107 to US $1 highest since link ended in July 2005. It plans to se several measures to check 11-year high inflation.
Khazanah Nasional bought 17 million BCHB shares or 0.5% stake from March 4-6 via open market, up BCHB stake to 700 million shares or 20.76%
Dotcom darling Google wins European commission approval to acquire online ad firm Doubleclick, immediately seals the US$3.1 B(RM 10 Billion) deal.
CPO futures down RM 104 to Rm 3734 at midday; but plantation stocks up.
EPF total income for 4Q 2007 at RM 3.8 b down 8.3% from RM 4.15 b in 3rdQ. Income from equity fell 27 % to RM 881 million in 4Q from 1.14 b in 3Q.
China's yuan at 7.107 to US $1 highest since link ended in July 2005. It plans to se several measures to check 11-year high inflation.
Hong Kong Kindergartens and primary schools closed for two weeks amid a flu outbreak
The wire reported on March 12 that Hong Kong’s government ordered Wednesday that all kindergartens and primary schools be closed for two weeks amid a flu outbreak, shutting down classes for more than a half million students.
The government also asked one of its top scientists to study three child deaths over the past week.
The Education Bureau said all kindergartens, primary schools and special schools would begin the Easter holiday early to prevent the spread of influenza in schools.
The order affected 1,745 schools, which had 559,019 students enrolled in the 2006-07 school year.
This news might affect the performance of stock market also.
The government also asked one of its top scientists to study three child deaths over the past week.
The Education Bureau said all kindergartens, primary schools and special schools would begin the Easter holiday early to prevent the spread of influenza in schools.
The order affected 1,745 schools, which had 559,019 students enrolled in the 2006-07 school year.
This news might affect the performance of stock market also.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
market rebounded
KLCI jumped 33.32 points (+2.8%) to close at 1206.54 with 709 rising stocks leading 159 losers. Volumbe was 1.09 billion shares worth RM 2.653 billion.
Court of Appeal gives Indian Corridor, Qualicare 14 days, wef March 7 to hold EGM to seek removal of several Golden Plus directors.
PPB Group allocates RM 300 million mainly for FY08 to expand core business of sugar, flour, for challenging FY08.
JAKS 56 million shares or 1.27% stake done off market at RM 3.64 million or 65 sen each. At 3.30 pm JAKS up 7.5 sen to 69.5 sen.
Wire reported that IOICorp eyes large tracks of plantation land in Sarawak and also plans to build refinery in Europe to boost revenues.
Court of Appeal gives Indian Corridor, Qualicare 14 days, wef March 7 to hold EGM to seek removal of several Golden Plus directors.
PPB Group allocates RM 300 million mainly for FY08 to expand core business of sugar, flour, for challenging FY08.
JAKS 56 million shares or 1.27% stake done off market at RM 3.64 million or 65 sen each. At 3.30 pm JAKS up 7.5 sen to 69.5 sen.
Wire reported that IOICorp eyes large tracks of plantation land in Sarawak and also plans to build refinery in Europe to boost revenues.
Monday, March 10, 2008
KLCI closed 123.11
KLCI closed 123.11 pts or 9.5% down at 1173.22. Sime fell RM 1.60 to RM 9.40; Tenaga -RM 1.30 to RM 7.35. Losers 905,gainers 26. 1.1 Billion shares were traded valued at RM 3.2 billion.
At this point, the market seems to be stablize because after it hit the low at 1157.47, it rebound to 1173.22.
They said this market is for bargain hunters and those who can hold for longer term.
At this point, the market seems to be stablize because after it hit the low at 1157.47, it rebound to 1173.22.
They said this market is for bargain hunters and those who can hold for longer term.
Market hit circuit breaker down 130.01
We have just faced a political TSUNAMI in the general election when the result announced on Sunday morning, before we could recover from the shock, we encounter stock market tsunami. The market was down 130.01(10.03%) to 1166.32 to hit the circuilt breaker this afternoon and stopped trading for an hour.
The Bursa said, "The circuit breaker has been triggered due to the decline of the KLCI by 10% based on previous day's closing value.
This is the first time circuit breaker was hit after implementation.
Bursa, SC assures public that market integrity intact, in spite of market-wide circuit breaker from 2.58pm to 3.58pm, when KLCI fell 10%
Trading halt is for 1 hour and will be reopened at 3.58pm In addition, upon market resumption at 3.58pm if KLCI falls by an aggregate of equal or to more than 15% of the previous market closing index the market will be closed for the rest of the trading session. During circuit breaker, you are able to enter, modify and cancel orders. However, market order are not allowed."
Who can help the market?
Maybe the PM should come out and say our economy is still intact, we are still in control.
Maybe Lim Kit Siang should come out and say will work toward the stability of the country and economy.
Maybe Anwar should come out and say our economy is in tact, and he sees value in many companies and would encourage real investors to start buying.
Maybe Tun Mahathir should say that the market is overreacting. The market is rock bottom.
The market open at 3.58pm still down 137.12 to 1159.21.
Fitch, Moody's maintain sovereign ratings on Malaysia; economy still on sound footing despite uncertainty has risen, says wire report.
Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) avowed their support to Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to lead BN and government.
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was sworn in as Prime Minister before the King this morning, following Barisan's victory in Saturday's general election.
The Bursa said, "The circuit breaker has been triggered due to the decline of the KLCI by 10% based on previous day's closing value.
This is the first time circuit breaker was hit after implementation.
Bursa, SC assures public that market integrity intact, in spite of market-wide circuit breaker from 2.58pm to 3.58pm, when KLCI fell 10%
Trading halt is for 1 hour and will be reopened at 3.58pm In addition, upon market resumption at 3.58pm if KLCI falls by an aggregate of equal or to more than 15% of the previous market closing index the market will be closed for the rest of the trading session. During circuit breaker, you are able to enter, modify and cancel orders. However, market order are not allowed."
Who can help the market?
Maybe the PM should come out and say our economy is still intact, we are still in control.
Maybe Lim Kit Siang should come out and say will work toward the stability of the country and economy.
Maybe Anwar should come out and say our economy is in tact, and he sees value in many companies and would encourage real investors to start buying.
Maybe Tun Mahathir should say that the market is overreacting. The market is rock bottom.
The market open at 3.58pm still down 137.12 to 1159.21.
Fitch, Moody's maintain sovereign ratings on Malaysia; economy still on sound footing despite uncertainty has risen, says wire report.
Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) avowed their support to Abdullah Ahmad Badawi to lead BN and government.
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was sworn in as Prime Minister before the King this morning, following Barisan's victory in Saturday's general election.
KLCI fell nearly 100 pt but is about time to buy
KLCI fell nearly 100 pts or 7.6% to 1,197 at 12.30pm: BCHB-RM1.55 to RM 8.65
Jakarta CI -4.3%;Singapore -2.07%, Shanghai A-2.57%
The regional markets are down because Dow was down 146.70 to 11,893.69 last Friday.
The US market was not performing after the government surprised investors with a report that employers eliminated 63,000 jobs last month.
Our market was down because BN lost 5 states in the general election on March 8 but still obtained 140 parliamentary seats to form the new government.
Malaysia market is over-reacting. Many stocks have dropped to the very low and investors who are cash-rich should consider buying.
If you are pessimistic, then you should read what stock market specialist Tan Teng Boo had said that things in US are really no as bad as envisaged.
He said that the corporate insiders, the officers, directors, and the largest shareholders of the listed corporations, are not buyers of equity.
He said,"do not look for precise bottoms, invest for the long term."
Jakarta CI -4.3%;Singapore -2.07%, Shanghai A-2.57%
The regional markets are down because Dow was down 146.70 to 11,893.69 last Friday.
The US market was not performing after the government surprised investors with a report that employers eliminated 63,000 jobs last month.
Our market was down because BN lost 5 states in the general election on March 8 but still obtained 140 parliamentary seats to form the new government.
Malaysia market is over-reacting. Many stocks have dropped to the very low and investors who are cash-rich should consider buying.
If you are pessimistic, then you should read what stock market specialist Tan Teng Boo had said that things in US are really no as bad as envisaged.
He said that the corporate insiders, the officers, directors, and the largest shareholders of the listed corporations, are not buyers of equity.
He said,"do not look for precise bottoms, invest for the long term."
Sunday, March 9, 2008
瑞士信贷对于美国决策者颇有信心, 认为尽管在全球整体软着陆的情况下，局部地区会隐隐作痛, 但政策面发挥积极作用. 因此, 依然看好股市.
如果美国股市被看好的话, 那么, 亚洲新兴市场应该不会坏到那里, 大马股市也是以美国马首是瞻, 应该还有表现机会.
美国联邦储备局在正月30日又宣布降息50基点至3%, 以把美国排除在经济萧条的门外.
之前一周, 美国联储局才减息75个?点, 换句话说, 在短短8天内, 联储局已减息1.25%；这是美国联储备局自1982年以来最严重的减息手法.
美国联储备局不排除还会继续减息, 如果有这个需要的话.
人们认为美国联储局减息不是一个立即可以见到效果的方案, 我们需要等待6个月的时间, 如果是这样的话, 那么美国经济会在下半年才会见到明显的回稳现象.
2月18日,英国政府宣布把陷入困境的抵押贷款发放机构北石 (Northern Rock) 收归国有。
英国政府认为, 私人界提出的收购北石方案未能给英国纳税人提供足够的价值.
西方国家一路反对政府干预私人企业, 但, 在必要时, 政府仍旧伸出援手, 尤其像北石银行这种涉及人民存款的金融机构.
自去年9月份以来, 北石一直依赖英国政府的支持.
该银行当时透露, 英国中行已对其施以援手,此举引发了一个多世纪以来英国银行的首次挤提事件.
过去5个月, 英国政府一直主张将北石出售给私人界, 如获成功, 将使英国中行收回共所提供的250亿英磅(约490亿美元)贷款.
不过, 英国财政部长达林表示, 两份私人公司收购报价——一份来自布朗寺的维珍集团 (Virgin Group), 另一份来由该银行的管理层所提出, 但条件不合适.因此, 英国政府遂管北石.
达林说: “ 因为我对英国纳税人负有责任.”
北石 “暂时”国有化, 英国政府必须找到一个愿意出价的机构, 才会让它私有化, 这可能需要一些时间.
2月18日,国际货币基金组织( IMF) 董事经理卡恩指出, 次贷危机最坏的阶段尚未过去, 必须做好准备, 今年的经济增长情况不会很好.
过去人们常说, 美国经济下降1%, 将导致新兴市场经济下降0.5%至1%,情况取决于该新兴市场与美国贸易联系的强度,况且，今天又多了一些新的更复杂的金融联系, 比如股市,海外直接投资等.
2月18日的报导指出,英国两大银行巴克莱及莱斯银行将公布业绩, 巴克莱获利丰厚达71 亿英磅, 莱斯银行则有税前盈利44亿英磅.
巴克莱将为投资次贷的损失拨备15亿英磅.
虽然金融业已宣布的拨备高达1千500亿美元, 这笔数额超越我国外汇储备的1013亿美元.但相信拨备行动未停止.
瑞银分析员预测, 银行需为债务抵押债券及次贷相关投资, 额外再拨备400亿美元至1千200亿美元.
2月15日, 根据美国银行公布的一份报告指出, 美国在去年10月爆发次级房地产贷款信贷危机以来, 已经使得全球股市损失越过7万7千亿 ( 24万9千480 亿令吉), 相等于我国外汇储备的76倍.
美国银行首席市场策略分析家昆兰在报告中说, 这场从美国境内延烧到世界各国的危机,是金融业有史以来最严重的一场灾难之一.
昆兰指出, 这次的损失比过去几十年所发生的金融市场危机, 包括1987年的华尔街黑色星期一, 1999年巴西金融危机,以及1998年长期资本管理公司 (LTCM)避险基金倒闭等事件,都要来得严重.
将房地产贷款借给信贷不稳定的投资人的次级房贷,或称进行高风险性房贷的结果, 使得全球资本市场从去年10月以来, 3个月内缩水14.7%.
次级房贷造成的损失也比2001年爆发的911恐怖攻击活动, 1997亚洲金融危机,2001年阿根廷金融风暴和1994年的墨西哥货币危机所造成的损失要大得多.
昆兰认为: “ 华尔街和其它金融界可能要再过好几个月, 甚至好几年才能熬过次级房贷危机的冲击.”
如果是好几个月, 那么,下半年就可以见到端倪, 如果要好几年,那么要等多久呢? 昆兰就没有作出交代.
难怪有人预期, 联储备局3月18日会降息0.5%, 以释放更多资金进入市场.
现在又面对一个问题,银行有了资金, 但却不敢借贷, 因为受到次贷问题影响后的银行业，已鼓励严厉管制借贷, 这又与美国联邦储备局的减息作风所要取得的效果背道而驰.
减息对银行来说是短期资金,次贷问题所需要的是长期资金, 因此,美国财政部应该插手此事.
有人说, 长期债券特别拍卖以让银行可以借到低廉资金措施也不是很成功, 虽然联邦储备局在去年12 月展开 “特别拍卖”时招来一股热潮, 但最近的拍卖却反应不佳,使到30年财政部债券价格大泻.
分析员说, 也许需要时间及耐心, 才可以解决次贷所引起的问题.
华尔街银行投资什么?
过去藉金融衍生产品获利可观的投资银行, 在遭受次级房贷风暴重创后, 已开始把注意力转向发电厂, 油气管线与炼油厂这类实体投资目标, 且许多银行扩增商品交易部门.
因此, 注重油气股, 能源股,仍是一个可行的路.跟着钱的流向走是不会错的, 钱流向那里, 那里便是机会.
国际油价高涨,令通膨加剧.
2月20日, 国际油价大幅飈升, 纽约原油期贷价格上涨4.51美元, 收报每桶100.01美元, 创收市新高.
纽约原油期货价格一度达到每桶100.1美元, 收报每桶100.01美元, 盤中价和收市价均创历史新高.
投资者担心高油价将影响个人消费,而通货膨胀压力加剧将使美国经济状况更为不利.
美国道琼斯工业指数因为国际油价创新高而跌掉稍早上涨的150多点, 终场下跌10.99, 收在12,337.27.
国际原油的上涨, 主要是投机者所为, 人们说事际上的价钱应该在每桶60美元左右. 人们不敢奢望原油会回到每桶60美元的价格, 人们期望假如可以保持在每桶90美元以下,就已经谢天谢地了.
原油价格也有其周期, 只要原油晋入下跌周期, 相信你即使不要它下跌, ,它还是会下跌的.当然, 原油是一个不可以被替代的能源, 它只会一天一天的减少, 而不会一天一天的增加.
刺激美国经济
美国的经济在出现萧條时, 可以通过减息或减税,来刺激成长 “经济刺激”就是通过减税或提高政府支出，以加速经济增长, 创造就业机会，支持这种做法的人说, 现在美国正需要这样的政策,因为美国的经济频临衰退,或者说,已经进入了衰退.
众议院民主党正讨论一揽子计划，短期内削减税1千亿美元（约3千236亿5千万令吉），按比例分给各州。
今年是大选年，我国大选有派糖果，美国大选也一样有派糖果，他们称之为「棒棒糖经济学」。
为了不被别人抢功，布什政府提出自己的计划，比如大多数家庭减税500美元，让选民感觉好点，表明政府努力改善经济的决心。
美国是一个经济生产总值达14万亿美元（45万3千100亿令吉）的庞大经济体，一次性给予750亿美元或1千亿美元的刺激经济配套，显得太少了。
因此，有人说，那麽温和的经济刺激计划，只有政治象徵意义，作用不大。
经济到底会好还是坏？
由於原油价格高企，投资者的注意力将集中在上升的通货膨胀。
市面上的一种看法是，全球经济扩张是一个长期的发展，它可能会持续几十年，而不是几年。
人们认为中国可能会从引发全球通货紧缩的国家，变为引发全球通货膨胀的源头，因为中国的成本，如工资以及原材皆已上涨。
但，印度丶孟加拉丶越南丶印尼等低工资国家，也将加入世界工厂的行列，将会把全球定价环境重新拉回通缩的状态。这些国家拥有大量的低薪工人，他们将能承担起不能在中国进行的生产。
也就是说，全球通缩压力的下一个泉源将源自於如印度丶越南丶孟加拉丶印尼丶菲律宾等国家，这些国家将刺激另一轮的全球经济扩张，而在同时释放通缩力量。
经济不好，人们仍会继续消费，他们仍要买衣服，仍必须上班丶吃饭丶驾车，可能必须寻找更廉宜的商品或物品。他们如果认为中国货比较贵，则可以向印度或越南购买。
换句话说，美国可以通过向印度或越南购买消费品，而保持低通膨，从而保持经济的成长。
经济是一个简单但复杂的问题，所谓「牵一发而动全身」，基本上，美国联储局是担心通缩性萧条，它不断的减息，其实是为通缩性萧条的可能性寻求庇护。
人们担心通缩，是因为它是有自我加强的效应。如果人们预计明天物价会下跌，那麽大家今天就会控制消费；如果投资者预计回报率将不断下滑，他们将维持观望，这也称之为流动性陷阱。正如股票一样，当股价一直下跌时，很多人都会在场外观望，直到股价稳定或回升时才会进场。他们会追高，但不愿买跌。
如果债务危机与严重通缩同时出现，那麽即使偿还债务，未偿清债务的价值也会上升；在所有这一切发生的同时，央行以面值零利率刺激经济的能力，也受到限制。
在大萧条期间，美国批发价格指数下跌了33%。在我们目前的全球化世界中，不太可能出现如此大的降幅。
在欧元区，也不太可能出现通缩。这里没有美国那样的负债问题，西班牙除外；没有出现房地产市场崩盘；拥有一个相对稳健的金融业。当然，欧元区并未与全球经济脱勾，如果全球出现通缩性萧条，欧元区不可能独善其身。
英国可能比较脆弱，因为在该国经济中，金融业规模相对较大，过度依赖即将出现紧缩的地产市场，同时长期以来，非金融行业生产率增幅较低。英国显然有可能出现严重长期衰退，然後是长期的低增长。
因此，全球出现通缩性萧条的风险较小，但，我们还是要提高警惕，假如利率上调丶债券市场垮台丶全球可能仍会出现通缩性萧条。
伯南克的谈话
2月15日，美国联储局（FED）主席伯南克说，由於房市丶信用市场和就业市场的景气疲软，美国经济仍有走下坡的风险，未来不排除进一步调降利率。
伯南克是在14日赴美国国会作证，他对今明两年的经济展望似乎感到乐观。理由是美国推动宽松的财政与货币措施，振兴经济的效应可望逐渐展现。
他说，「目前，我的基本看法是，会先有一段成长缓慢期，接下来，今年稍後的成长步调将稍微转强，反映货币与财政刺激措施的效果开始浮现。」
他虽然认为经济情势会日渐改善，但也不忘提醒「不利成长的风险仍在」，包括房市或劳动市场可能恶化到超乎目前预想情况的程度，或是信用条件进一步大幅紧缩。
他说，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）「会在必要时适时采取行动支撑成长，并提供各种不利风险的足够保险。」
他暗示，将依Fed对成长与通膨的中期预测，以及各项风险评估，来决定进一步的政策行动。
经济学家预估，由於经济濒临衰退，接下来几个月美国应该还会继续降息。
美国就业和服务指数等最新经济数据，一直敲响经济衰退的警钟，然而，元月零售销售却优於预期，代表本季经济可望有一些成长。
理论上，美国假如再降息，会释放更多资金进入市场，并且会刺激美国经济成长。
假如你是乐观者，你自然相信美国经济会在下半年复苏，由於我国股市与美国仍有挂钩，因此，美国经济复苏，自然也会带旺我们经济和股市。
假如你是悲观者，那麽，你应手持现金，等到最糟的情况出现後，才作出决定。
看来，未来我们只有走一步，看一步。
大马第12届大选
当本文刊出时，大马第12届大选的成绩已经揭晓。
国阵继续执政，反对党这次有默契，取得大突破，在5个州取胜，成立州政府；人们形容这是政治的海啸。1990年国阵对垒反阵，前者获127席，反阵49席。1999年国阵获148席，替阵获42席。2008年，国阵140席，反对党82席。
这次反对党联成一线，因为反风关系，取得意想不到的突破，反对党也发生一些风波，在提名之前的7天，性格率直火爆的「小辣椒」冯宝君，以民主行动党霹雳州的内部斗争为由，声明弃选，这个举措在一定程度上打击了该党的形象。不过后来在提名前两天，经过各方面的劝告与于请下，终于改变初衷，接受回到回原区华都牙也竞选。 冯宝君在记者会上，对她之前的不参选决定，对支持者和党所造成的伤害致歉。冯宝君重回竞选队伍，对行动党有激励作用，人们支持冯宝君是一个不畏强权的斗士。
安华说，如果反对党夺得政权，在大选第二天就会宣布降低汽油价格。
在国际油价高企，加上政府逐步削减燃油补贴之际，降低汽油价格的言论极具吸引力，是反对党所派的「糖果」。
安华还说，反对党一旦执政，国民将享有小学至大学的免费教育，也让各源流小学恢复母教数理科。
当国际油价高企时，这次的选举，也与经济大有关系。 它涉及3个C，即生活成本（Cost of Living）丶犯罪问题（Crime）及贪污问题（Corruption）。
民生问题是关键性的，国阵政府在2006年2月尾宣布汽油起价30仙；同年5月20日的砂州大选，结果反对党的州议席从2席增加到9席，71席中，国阵只赢获62席。
我国经济经历了6个年头的成长，2007年的成长也超过5%，今年国民生产总值（GDP）则有可能达到6%至6.5%的成长。
观察我国2007年的第一季成长达到5.5%，第二季成长有5.8%，第三季有6.7%，造成前9个月的GDP成长是6%，超越了官方的预测。
我国股市的表现也颇出色，飙升32%，并且在今年正月11日，升至1516.22点的高点。这之後，我们股市陷入调整期，虽然国会解散之前及之後，股市有一些表现，但最後还是必须看美国的「脸色」。美国如果下跌，我国股市多少受到影响。
我国股市的市值也从2006年底的8千490亿令吉，提升至今天的1.1兆令吉。
国阵政府也派了不少糖果，包括提高公务员薪水丶生活津贴丶公积金会员在今年开始，可以每月提款，以缴付房屋贷款，这对消费用品丶娱乐丶旅游丶银行丶汽车及产业领域会有激励作用。
人们最担心的是美国的经济萧条会影响到我国经济。当然，我国经济已经建立起一定的适应力，以应付外国的影响。
2007年，出口不是主要的推动力，因为马币强稳，而美国的消费也转弱。大马的出口成长2.7%，2006年还有10.3%。
我国的成长，靠内需推动，原产品价格高涨，年中又有公务员加薪，还有其他激励因素，让我国经济取得成长。
我国对美国外贸的依赖日渐减低，但对中国的出口及进口却大幅度增加。
在2003年，我国的出口有20%是进口到美国，但2007年已经滑至16%，对中国的出口却从2006年的3.1%，增加到2007年的8.7%。
原产品棕油及原油的价格，相信在2008年会维持高价，让种植业及油气业受惠。
美国金融市场的次贷问题，没有直接影响到我们，因为我们没有购买到有关的衍生产品。
大马拥有丰厚的流动资金及高储蓄率，我国的金融机构自1998年的金融风暴後，已经强大起来，资产品质及风险衡量资本足够比例非常强。
更精彩的分析，请参阅最新的财经
如果美国股市被看好的话, 那么, 亚洲新兴市场应该不会坏到那里, 大马股市也是以美国马首是瞻, 应该还有表现机会.
美国联邦储备局在正月30日又宣布降息50基点至3%, 以把美国排除在经济萧条的门外.
之前一周, 美国联储局才减息75个?点, 换句话说, 在短短8天内, 联储局已减息1.25%；这是美国联储备局自1982年以来最严重的减息手法.
美国联储备局不排除还会继续减息, 如果有这个需要的话.
人们认为美国联储局减息不是一个立即可以见到效果的方案, 我们需要等待6个月的时间, 如果是这样的话, 那么美国经济会在下半年才会见到明显的回稳现象.
2月18日,英国政府宣布把陷入困境的抵押贷款发放机构北石 (Northern Rock) 收归国有。
英国政府认为, 私人界提出的收购北石方案未能给英国纳税人提供足够的价值.
西方国家一路反对政府干预私人企业, 但, 在必要时, 政府仍旧伸出援手, 尤其像北石银行这种涉及人民存款的金融机构.
自去年9月份以来, 北石一直依赖英国政府的支持.
该银行当时透露, 英国中行已对其施以援手,此举引发了一个多世纪以来英国银行的首次挤提事件.
过去5个月, 英国政府一直主张将北石出售给私人界, 如获成功, 将使英国中行收回共所提供的250亿英磅(约490亿美元)贷款.
不过, 英国财政部长达林表示, 两份私人公司收购报价——一份来自布朗寺的维珍集团 (Virgin Group), 另一份来由该银行的管理层所提出, 但条件不合适.因此, 英国政府遂管北石.
达林说: “ 因为我对英国纳税人负有责任.”
北石 “暂时”国有化, 英国政府必须找到一个愿意出价的机构, 才会让它私有化, 这可能需要一些时间.
2月18日,国际货币基金组织( IMF) 董事经理卡恩指出, 次贷危机最坏的阶段尚未过去, 必须做好准备, 今年的经济增长情况不会很好.
过去人们常说, 美国经济下降1%, 将导致新兴市场经济下降0.5%至1%,情况取决于该新兴市场与美国贸易联系的强度,况且，今天又多了一些新的更复杂的金融联系, 比如股市,海外直接投资等.
2月18日的报导指出,英国两大银行巴克莱及莱斯银行将公布业绩, 巴克莱获利丰厚达71 亿英磅, 莱斯银行则有税前盈利44亿英磅.
巴克莱将为投资次贷的损失拨备15亿英磅.
虽然金融业已宣布的拨备高达1千500亿美元, 这笔数额超越我国外汇储备的1013亿美元.但相信拨备行动未停止.
瑞银分析员预测, 银行需为债务抵押债券及次贷相关投资, 额外再拨备400亿美元至1千200亿美元.
2月15日, 根据美国银行公布的一份报告指出, 美国在去年10月爆发次级房地产贷款信贷危机以来, 已经使得全球股市损失越过7万7千亿 ( 24万9千480 亿令吉), 相等于我国外汇储备的76倍.
美国银行首席市场策略分析家昆兰在报告中说, 这场从美国境内延烧到世界各国的危机,是金融业有史以来最严重的一场灾难之一.
昆兰指出, 这次的损失比过去几十年所发生的金融市场危机, 包括1987年的华尔街黑色星期一, 1999年巴西金融危机,以及1998年长期资本管理公司 (LTCM)避险基金倒闭等事件,都要来得严重.
将房地产贷款借给信贷不稳定的投资人的次级房贷,或称进行高风险性房贷的结果, 使得全球资本市场从去年10月以来, 3个月内缩水14.7%.
次级房贷造成的损失也比2001年爆发的911恐怖攻击活动, 1997亚洲金融危机,2001年阿根廷金融风暴和1994年的墨西哥货币危机所造成的损失要大得多.
昆兰认为: “ 华尔街和其它金融界可能要再过好几个月, 甚至好几年才能熬过次级房贷危机的冲击.”
如果是好几个月, 那么,下半年就可以见到端倪, 如果要好几年,那么要等多久呢? 昆兰就没有作出交代.
难怪有人预期, 联储备局3月18日会降息0.5%, 以释放更多资金进入市场.
现在又面对一个问题,银行有了资金, 但却不敢借贷, 因为受到次贷问题影响后的银行业，已鼓励严厉管制借贷, 这又与美国联邦储备局的减息作风所要取得的效果背道而驰.
减息对银行来说是短期资金,次贷问题所需要的是长期资金, 因此,美国财政部应该插手此事.
有人说, 长期债券特别拍卖以让银行可以借到低廉资金措施也不是很成功, 虽然联邦储备局在去年12 月展开 “特别拍卖”时招来一股热潮, 但最近的拍卖却反应不佳,使到30年财政部债券价格大泻.
分析员说, 也许需要时间及耐心, 才可以解决次贷所引起的问题.
华尔街银行投资什么?
过去藉金融衍生产品获利可观的投资银行, 在遭受次级房贷风暴重创后, 已开始把注意力转向发电厂, 油气管线与炼油厂这类实体投资目标, 且许多银行扩增商品交易部门.
因此, 注重油气股, 能源股,仍是一个可行的路.跟着钱的流向走是不会错的, 钱流向那里, 那里便是机会.
国际油价高涨,令通膨加剧.
2月20日, 国际油价大幅飈升, 纽约原油期贷价格上涨4.51美元, 收报每桶100.01美元, 创收市新高.
纽约原油期货价格一度达到每桶100.1美元, 收报每桶100.01美元, 盤中价和收市价均创历史新高.
投资者担心高油价将影响个人消费,而通货膨胀压力加剧将使美国经济状况更为不利.
美国道琼斯工业指数因为国际油价创新高而跌掉稍早上涨的150多点, 终场下跌10.99, 收在12,337.27.
国际原油的上涨, 主要是投机者所为, 人们说事际上的价钱应该在每桶60美元左右. 人们不敢奢望原油会回到每桶60美元的价格, 人们期望假如可以保持在每桶90美元以下,就已经谢天谢地了.
原油价格也有其周期, 只要原油晋入下跌周期, 相信你即使不要它下跌, ,它还是会下跌的.当然, 原油是一个不可以被替代的能源, 它只会一天一天的减少, 而不会一天一天的增加.
刺激美国经济
美国的经济在出现萧條时, 可以通过减息或减税,来刺激成长 “经济刺激”就是通过减税或提高政府支出，以加速经济增长, 创造就业机会，支持这种做法的人说, 现在美国正需要这样的政策,因为美国的经济频临衰退,或者说,已经进入了衰退.
众议院民主党正讨论一揽子计划，短期内削减税1千亿美元（约3千236亿5千万令吉），按比例分给各州。
今年是大选年，我国大选有派糖果，美国大选也一样有派糖果，他们称之为「棒棒糖经济学」。
为了不被别人抢功，布什政府提出自己的计划，比如大多数家庭减税500美元，让选民感觉好点，表明政府努力改善经济的决心。
美国是一个经济生产总值达14万亿美元（45万3千100亿令吉）的庞大经济体，一次性给予750亿美元或1千亿美元的刺激经济配套，显得太少了。
因此，有人说，那麽温和的经济刺激计划，只有政治象徵意义，作用不大。
经济到底会好还是坏？
由於原油价格高企，投资者的注意力将集中在上升的通货膨胀。
市面上的一种看法是，全球经济扩张是一个长期的发展，它可能会持续几十年，而不是几年。
人们认为中国可能会从引发全球通货紧缩的国家，变为引发全球通货膨胀的源头，因为中国的成本，如工资以及原材皆已上涨。
但，印度丶孟加拉丶越南丶印尼等低工资国家，也将加入世界工厂的行列，将会把全球定价环境重新拉回通缩的状态。这些国家拥有大量的低薪工人，他们将能承担起不能在中国进行的生产。
也就是说，全球通缩压力的下一个泉源将源自於如印度丶越南丶孟加拉丶印尼丶菲律宾等国家，这些国家将刺激另一轮的全球经济扩张，而在同时释放通缩力量。
经济不好，人们仍会继续消费，他们仍要买衣服，仍必须上班丶吃饭丶驾车，可能必须寻找更廉宜的商品或物品。他们如果认为中国货比较贵，则可以向印度或越南购买。
换句话说，美国可以通过向印度或越南购买消费品，而保持低通膨，从而保持经济的成长。
经济是一个简单但复杂的问题，所谓「牵一发而动全身」，基本上，美国联储局是担心通缩性萧条，它不断的减息，其实是为通缩性萧条的可能性寻求庇护。
人们担心通缩，是因为它是有自我加强的效应。如果人们预计明天物价会下跌，那麽大家今天就会控制消费；如果投资者预计回报率将不断下滑，他们将维持观望，这也称之为流动性陷阱。正如股票一样，当股价一直下跌时，很多人都会在场外观望，直到股价稳定或回升时才会进场。他们会追高，但不愿买跌。
如果债务危机与严重通缩同时出现，那麽即使偿还债务，未偿清债务的价值也会上升；在所有这一切发生的同时，央行以面值零利率刺激经济的能力，也受到限制。
在大萧条期间，美国批发价格指数下跌了33%。在我们目前的全球化世界中，不太可能出现如此大的降幅。
在欧元区，也不太可能出现通缩。这里没有美国那样的负债问题，西班牙除外；没有出现房地产市场崩盘；拥有一个相对稳健的金融业。当然，欧元区并未与全球经济脱勾，如果全球出现通缩性萧条，欧元区不可能独善其身。
英国可能比较脆弱，因为在该国经济中，金融业规模相对较大，过度依赖即将出现紧缩的地产市场，同时长期以来，非金融行业生产率增幅较低。英国显然有可能出现严重长期衰退，然後是长期的低增长。
因此，全球出现通缩性萧条的风险较小，但，我们还是要提高警惕，假如利率上调丶债券市场垮台丶全球可能仍会出现通缩性萧条。
伯南克的谈话
2月15日，美国联储局（FED）主席伯南克说，由於房市丶信用市场和就业市场的景气疲软，美国经济仍有走下坡的风险，未来不排除进一步调降利率。
伯南克是在14日赴美国国会作证，他对今明两年的经济展望似乎感到乐观。理由是美国推动宽松的财政与货币措施，振兴经济的效应可望逐渐展现。
他说，「目前，我的基本看法是，会先有一段成长缓慢期，接下来，今年稍後的成长步调将稍微转强，反映货币与财政刺激措施的效果开始浮现。」
他虽然认为经济情势会日渐改善，但也不忘提醒「不利成长的风险仍在」，包括房市或劳动市场可能恶化到超乎目前预想情况的程度，或是信用条件进一步大幅紧缩。
他说，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）「会在必要时适时采取行动支撑成长，并提供各种不利风险的足够保险。」
他暗示，将依Fed对成长与通膨的中期预测，以及各项风险评估，来决定进一步的政策行动。
经济学家预估，由於经济濒临衰退，接下来几个月美国应该还会继续降息。
美国就业和服务指数等最新经济数据，一直敲响经济衰退的警钟，然而，元月零售销售却优於预期，代表本季经济可望有一些成长。
理论上，美国假如再降息，会释放更多资金进入市场，并且会刺激美国经济成长。
假如你是乐观者，你自然相信美国经济会在下半年复苏，由於我国股市与美国仍有挂钩，因此，美国经济复苏，自然也会带旺我们经济和股市。
假如你是悲观者，那麽，你应手持现金，等到最糟的情况出现後，才作出决定。
看来，未来我们只有走一步，看一步。
大马第12届大选
当本文刊出时，大马第12届大选的成绩已经揭晓。
国阵继续执政，反对党这次有默契，取得大突破，在5个州取胜，成立州政府；人们形容这是政治的海啸。1990年国阵对垒反阵，前者获127席，反阵49席。1999年国阵获148席，替阵获42席。2008年，国阵140席，反对党82席。
这次反对党联成一线，因为反风关系，取得意想不到的突破，反对党也发生一些风波，在提名之前的7天，性格率直火爆的「小辣椒」冯宝君，以民主行动党霹雳州的内部斗争为由，声明弃选，这个举措在一定程度上打击了该党的形象。不过后来在提名前两天，经过各方面的劝告与于请下，终于改变初衷，接受回到回原区华都牙也竞选。 冯宝君在记者会上，对她之前的不参选决定，对支持者和党所造成的伤害致歉。冯宝君重回竞选队伍，对行动党有激励作用，人们支持冯宝君是一个不畏强权的斗士。
安华说，如果反对党夺得政权，在大选第二天就会宣布降低汽油价格。
在国际油价高企，加上政府逐步削减燃油补贴之际，降低汽油价格的言论极具吸引力，是反对党所派的「糖果」。
安华还说，反对党一旦执政，国民将享有小学至大学的免费教育，也让各源流小学恢复母教数理科。
当国际油价高企时，这次的选举，也与经济大有关系。 它涉及3个C，即生活成本（Cost of Living）丶犯罪问题（Crime）及贪污问题（Corruption）。
民生问题是关键性的，国阵政府在2006年2月尾宣布汽油起价30仙；同年5月20日的砂州大选，结果反对党的州议席从2席增加到9席，71席中，国阵只赢获62席。
我国经济经历了6个年头的成长，2007年的成长也超过5%，今年国民生产总值（GDP）则有可能达到6%至6.5%的成长。
观察我国2007年的第一季成长达到5.5%，第二季成长有5.8%，第三季有6.7%，造成前9个月的GDP成长是6%，超越了官方的预测。
我国股市的表现也颇出色，飙升32%，并且在今年正月11日，升至1516.22点的高点。这之後，我们股市陷入调整期，虽然国会解散之前及之後，股市有一些表现，但最後还是必须看美国的「脸色」。美国如果下跌，我国股市多少受到影响。
我国股市的市值也从2006年底的8千490亿令吉，提升至今天的1.1兆令吉。
国阵政府也派了不少糖果，包括提高公务员薪水丶生活津贴丶公积金会员在今年开始，可以每月提款，以缴付房屋贷款，这对消费用品丶娱乐丶旅游丶银行丶汽车及产业领域会有激励作用。
人们最担心的是美国的经济萧条会影响到我国经济。当然，我国经济已经建立起一定的适应力，以应付外国的影响。
2007年，出口不是主要的推动力，因为马币强稳，而美国的消费也转弱。大马的出口成长2.7%，2006年还有10.3%。
我国的成长，靠内需推动，原产品价格高涨，年中又有公务员加薪，还有其他激励因素，让我国经济取得成长。
我国对美国外贸的依赖日渐减低，但对中国的出口及进口却大幅度增加。
在2003年，我国的出口有20%是进口到美国，但2007年已经滑至16%，对中国的出口却从2006年的3.1%，增加到2007年的8.7%。
原产品棕油及原油的价格，相信在2008年会维持高价，让种植业及油气业受惠。
美国金融市场的次贷问题，没有直接影响到我们，因为我们没有购买到有关的衍生产品。
大马拥有丰厚的流动资金及高储蓄率，我国的金融机构自1998年的金融风暴後，已经强大起来，资产品质及风险衡量资本足够比例非常强。
更精彩的分析，请参阅最新的财经
Friday, March 7, 2008
KLCI closed down 3.36
The KLCI fell 3.36 to close at 1296.33, with 403 declining stocks leading 317 risers. Volume was 687 million shares valued at RM 1.286 billion.
Dialog Group’s JV gets RM 1.6 billion job from Petronas Carigali for 512 km Sabah-Sarawak gas pipeline.
Seadrill ups Sapuracrest Petroleum stake to 166.8 million or 14.28 % after buying 4 million shares on February 28-29.
QSR’s new 40.9 million rights shares, 40.9 million warrants to list on Monday. Shares were down 31 sen to RM 2.35 at 3.11 pm in line with weak market.
Dialog Group’s JV gets RM 1.6 billion job from Petronas Carigali for 512 km Sabah-Sarawak gas pipeline.
Seadrill ups Sapuracrest Petroleum stake to 166.8 million or 14.28 % after buying 4 million shares on February 28-29.
QSR’s new 40.9 million rights shares, 40.9 million warrants to list on Monday. Shares were down 31 sen to RM 2.35 at 3.11 pm in line with weak market.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Market recovering
KLCI closed up 19.46 points to 1299.69, with 481 gainers leading 239 decliners. Volume was 571 million shares worth RM 1.34 billion.
January exports up 10.4% to RM53.02 billion from RM 48.03 billion year ago; imports rose 6.9% to RM 43.23 billion from RM40.43 billion. Trade surplus RM9.79 bilion.
Communications Ministry gives Telenor Asia until June 30 to cut stake in DIGI to 49%, a condition imposed since July 2001.
The Datestone Group LLC offers to buy Idaman Unggul’s unit Lambang Pertama, which has timber rights, for US $108 million.
Welli Multi falls 16.5 sen to 25.5 sen at 10.54 am; got CCM nod to extend deadline for AGM present audited financial report to March 31.
January exports up 10.4% to RM53.02 billion from RM 48.03 billion year ago; imports rose 6.9% to RM 43.23 billion from RM40.43 billion. Trade surplus RM9.79 bilion.
Communications Ministry gives Telenor Asia until June 30 to cut stake in DIGI to 49%, a condition imposed since July 2001.
The Datestone Group LLC offers to buy Idaman Unggul’s unit Lambang Pertama, which has timber rights, for US $108 million.
Welli Multi falls 16.5 sen to 25.5 sen at 10.54 am; got CCM nod to extend deadline for AGM present audited financial report to March 31.
Market recovering
KLCI closed up 19.46 points to 1299.69, with 481 gainers leading 239 decliners. Volume was 571 million shares worth RM 1.34 billion.
January exports up 10.4% to RM53.02 billion from RM 48.03 billion year ago; imports rose 6.9% to RM 43.23 billion from RM40.43 billion. Trade surplus RM9.79 bilion.
Communications Ministry gives Telenor Asia until June 30 to cut stake in DIGI to 49%, a condition imposed since July 2001.
The Datestone Group LLC offers to buy Idaman Unggul’s unit Lambang Pertama, which has timber rights, for US $108 million.
Welli Multi falls 16.5 sen to 25.5 sen at 10.54 am; got CCM nod to extend deadline for AGM present audited financial report to March 31.
January exports up 10.4% to RM53.02 billion from RM 48.03 billion year ago; imports rose 6.9% to RM 43.23 billion from RM40.43 billion. Trade surplus RM9.79 bilion.
Communications Ministry gives Telenor Asia until June 30 to cut stake in DIGI to 49%, a condition imposed since July 2001.
The Datestone Group LLC offers to buy Idaman Unggul’s unit Lambang Pertama, which has timber rights, for US $108 million.
Welli Multi falls 16.5 sen to 25.5 sen at 10.54 am; got CCM nod to extend deadline for AGM present audited financial report to March 31.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Market still dropping
KLCI closed 33.79 points lower at 1280.23 on foreign selling, KLK(2445) dropped RM 1.60 to RM 16.60; IOICorp(1961) down 45 sen to RM 7.35; MISC(3816) down 55 sen to 8.15. There are 160 winners and 672 losers and 214 counters unchanged.
810 million shares traded today valuing at RM2.12 billion.
Government inclined stock like Equine(1147) is stilling sliding 6 sen to 1.37. GLC time(4456) down 0.015 to 0.415 and Timecom(5031) is 0.52(-0.02). Many stocks are at year low prices. The question is, can they go lower?
Btoto(1562) third quarters net profit RM 98.16 million vs RM 117.34 million a year ago, revenue RM 861.5 m vs RM 771m. Declared dividend 8 sen per share; exdate April 11.
Contract value for Zelan(2283) JV’s project in UAE to build Meena Plaza raised to RM 801 million(AED 925.3 m) from RM 782 million due to higher material costs.
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia ups Scicom stake to 25.8 million shares or 9.73% after buying 4.49 million shares from Feb 26 to 29.
FMR ups Gamuda stake to 10.93 % or 218.89 million shares, after buying 2.38 million shares on Feb 26.
810 million shares traded today valuing at RM2.12 billion.
Government inclined stock like Equine(1147) is stilling sliding 6 sen to 1.37. GLC time(4456) down 0.015 to 0.415 and Timecom(5031) is 0.52(-0.02). Many stocks are at year low prices. The question is, can they go lower?
Btoto(1562) third quarters net profit RM 98.16 million vs RM 117.34 million a year ago, revenue RM 861.5 m vs RM 771m. Declared dividend 8 sen per share; exdate April 11.
Contract value for Zelan(2283) JV’s project in UAE to build Meena Plaza raised to RM 801 million(AED 925.3 m) from RM 782 million due to higher material costs.
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia ups Scicom stake to 25.8 million shares or 9.73% after buying 4.49 million shares from Feb 26 to 29.
FMR ups Gamuda stake to 10.93 % or 218.89 million shares, after buying 2.38 million shares on Feb 26.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Better watch out the market
The CI is down 16.59 to 1314.02 because regional markets were also not performing.
Hong Kong is down 465.10 to 23119.869, Singapore is also slid by 6.87 to 2919.68. However, Japan is up by 0.10 to 12992.28. Dow this morning was also down 7.49 to 12258.90.
China to overtake US in 2025 to be world ‘s largest economy, grow by 130% of size of US by 2050, says PWC report.
The CI basically has dropped 4 days consecutively. Investors better watch out.
January global chips sales up 0.03% to US$21.5 b from year ago. However, sales fell 3.6% from Dec US$32.3b, says semiconductor industry association.
Al-Saudia Resources bought 3.33 m PJ Bumi shares on Feb 26, ups stakes to 3.84m or 7.69 %. PJBumi(7163, Industrial Product) today closed at 0.53.
Hong Kong is down 465.10 to 23119.869, Singapore is also slid by 6.87 to 2919.68. However, Japan is up by 0.10 to 12992.28. Dow this morning was also down 7.49 to 12258.90.
China to overtake US in 2025 to be world ‘s largest economy, grow by 130% of size of US by 2050, says PWC report.
The CI basically has dropped 4 days consecutively. Investors better watch out.
January global chips sales up 0.03% to US$21.5 b from year ago. However, sales fell 3.6% from Dec US$32.3b, says semiconductor industry association.
Al-Saudia Resources bought 3.33 m PJ Bumi shares on Feb 26, ups stakes to 3.84m or 7.69 %. PJBumi(7163, Industrial Product) today closed at 0.53.
Monday, March 3, 2008
KLCI closes down 26.79 to 1330.61 on continuous selling pressure. The losing counters 598 and winners 173 with 212 counters unchanged. There were 580 million shares changed hand valuing at RM1.51 billion
Shares in KNM Group was suspended today to make way for an announcement related to a Euro 350 mil(RM 1.7 bil) foreign acquisition.
Palm oil futures shot up RM 300 to a record RM 4150 on record soyoil and higher wheat and corn prices.
Thailand central bank remove curbs on capital flow effective today to boost economic growth and reign in rising inflation.
Malaysia will allow offshore trade in its ringgit currency when the time is right, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said today.
“When I think it is time to do it, I will do it,” the PM told CNBC in an interview. He was asked when Malaysia would allow the ringgit to be traded offshore after Thiland removed curbs on capital flow.
The ban on offshore ringgit trade was part of a series of capital controls that Malaysia imposed to protect its economy from currency speculators during the 1998 Asian financial crisis.
The government has removed most of the controls, including scrapping the ringgit’s peg to the dollar in 2005, but offshore trade in the currency is still forbidden.
Shares in KNM Group was suspended today to make way for an announcement related to a Euro 350 mil(RM 1.7 bil) foreign acquisition.
Palm oil futures shot up RM 300 to a record RM 4150 on record soyoil and higher wheat and corn prices.
Thailand central bank remove curbs on capital flow effective today to boost economic growth and reign in rising inflation.
Malaysia will allow offshore trade in its ringgit currency when the time is right, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said today.
“When I think it is time to do it, I will do it,” the PM told CNBC in an interview. He was asked when Malaysia would allow the ringgit to be traded offshore after Thiland removed curbs on capital flow.
The ban on offshore ringgit trade was part of a series of capital controls that Malaysia imposed to protect its economy from currency speculators during the 1998 Asian financial crisis.
The government has removed most of the controls, including scrapping the ringgit’s peg to the dollar in 2005, but offshore trade in the currency is still forbidden.
Market dropped because of Dow
KLCI dropped by 24.17 to 1333.23 at noon because Dow last Friday fell 315.79.
561 counters are Losers and there are only 104 winners, whereas 136 counters remain unchanged.
SJ securities has done a good analyis of the markets. I will summerised the report as follows:
Palm oil breezed through RM 4000 mark. A level that has far exceeded the high side of analysts' expectation at RM3,600. Oil price at USD102. It has also exceeded the fair estimate of USD87. And the surprising common denominator threading through these 2 commodities is the high stockpiles. There is also the slowing down on global growth which has resulted in demand weakening.
There can only be one answer. Global funds have shifted towards investing in commodities. Equity and credit markets are stuck in a meltdown.
It looks like the equity market globally, will not recover so soon. Chartwise, when the palm oil hit RM 4,400, oil is at USD 116, and Gold at USD 1047, then perhaps, it is time to take a good book at the stockmarket. On the chart, these are the resistance levels, and a good bet for a correction in commodities, and a shift back to equity.
561 counters are Losers and there are only 104 winners, whereas 136 counters remain unchanged.
SJ securities has done a good analyis of the markets. I will summerised the report as follows:
Palm oil breezed through RM 4000 mark. A level that has far exceeded the high side of analysts' expectation at RM3,600. Oil price at USD102. It has also exceeded the fair estimate of USD87. And the surprising common denominator threading through these 2 commodities is the high stockpiles. There is also the slowing down on global growth which has resulted in demand weakening.
There can only be one answer. Global funds have shifted towards investing in commodities. Equity and credit markets are stuck in a meltdown.
It looks like the equity market globally, will not recover so soon. Chartwise, when the palm oil hit RM 4,400, oil is at USD 116, and Gold at USD 1047, then perhaps, it is time to take a good book at the stockmarket. On the chart, these are the resistance levels, and a good bet for a correction in commodities, and a shift back to equity.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Market speculated that it will go up to create feel-good effect for election this week
If you were to refer to the US market to trade, you probably dare not enter the market because the US market was down 315.79 to 12266.39 last Friday.
However, the market speculated that our market will be different this week. This week Malaysians will be going to the poll to elect their representatives to the new government. Therefore, it is believed that the market will pick up and allow the investors to make money in the market and to create the “feel-good” effect.
Last Friday, many stocks have started to rebound. However, external factors normally would affect the performance of our market.
How would the market react? Just wait for the opening bell on Monday and you will have the answer.
Why would the US market drop by 315 points?
There are three reasons for the fall:
No.1 Computer maker Dell posted a 6 % decline in its quarterly profit, falling below analysts’ expectations, and warned that its business could suffer from reduced customer spending.
Bill Schultz, chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates in Bethlehem, Pa., said AIG’s report left investors uneasy about the prospect of further sizable write-down of bad debt.
No. 2. Light, sweet crude jumped to a record of $103.05 in early electronic trading before settling down 75 cents at $101.84 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange.
No. 3. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, known as the VIX, and often referred to as the “fear index,” jumped 12.8 percent.
Technically speaking, our composite index has broken the 200-day moving average. This is an important signal, normally signaling that the market has entered into the bear phase.
Please refer to Guang Ming Daily, Penang edition Chung Guan Tao special column on Monday(March 3, 2008) for the full report.
However, the market speculated that our market will be different this week. This week Malaysians will be going to the poll to elect their representatives to the new government. Therefore, it is believed that the market will pick up and allow the investors to make money in the market and to create the “feel-good” effect.
Last Friday, many stocks have started to rebound. However, external factors normally would affect the performance of our market.
How would the market react? Just wait for the opening bell on Monday and you will have the answer.
Why would the US market drop by 315 points?
There are three reasons for the fall:
No.1 Computer maker Dell posted a 6 % decline in its quarterly profit, falling below analysts’ expectations, and warned that its business could suffer from reduced customer spending.
Bill Schultz, chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates in Bethlehem, Pa., said AIG’s report left investors uneasy about the prospect of further sizable write-down of bad debt.
No. 2. Light, sweet crude jumped to a record of $103.05 in early electronic trading before settling down 75 cents at $101.84 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange.
No. 3. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s volatility index, known as the VIX, and often referred to as the “fear index,” jumped 12.8 percent.
Technically speaking, our composite index has broken the 200-day moving average. This is an important signal, normally signaling that the market has entered into the bear phase.
Please refer to Guang Ming Daily, Penang edition Chung Guan Tao special column on Monday(March 3, 2008) for the full report.
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