愛爾蘭現代啟示錄
Created 11/23/2010 - 19:09
在全球的金融風暴之中，愛爾蘭已經成為一個災難中心，也是繼希臘之後，成為歐元區主權債務危機第二個淪陷國。
目前勉強靠著歐盟和國際貨 幣基金（IMF）有條件的1千億歐元援助紓困，總算暫時穩住愛爾蘭金融危機的蔓延。但是目前沒有人敢再樂觀估計，愛爾蘭的金融危機是否就此否極泰來，因為 愛爾蘭同時出現了嚴重的政治和社會危機，假如處理不當，愛爾蘭聯合政府有可能瓦解，地方的分離主義有可能相互傾軋。總之，愛爾蘭已經成為歐洲先進國家一個 突然遭到重挫的現代啟示錄。
愛爾蘭的多重超級危機，對外而言，似乎爆發得太突然，雖然愛爾蘭在外表風光無比，1996至2007年經濟成長7.2%，預算赤字維持在國內生產總 值（GDP）3%以下，符合歐盟財政紀律要求上眼，在歐元區始終是模範生，但這一切進步與繁榮顯然都是假象。其實愛蘭爾早已存在真正的結構性危機問題，而 愛爾蘭的聯合政府一直拒絕面對，以致致惡化難以收拾的地步。
愛爾蘭甫於90年代中期與英國先後與英國及愛爾蘭分離主義組織達致政治和解，代表愛爾蘭已經苦盡甘來，經貿出現穩定快速的成長，外債的危機獲得解 決，愛爾蘭人民對於國家的前途，充滿了自信與希望，因此許歐盟國家都以愛爾蘭做為發展的模範，立志學習愛爾蘭的做法。但是在經濟繁榮的十幾年間，愛爾蘭房 地產泡沫不斷膨脹，終於在2008年金融風暴中爆破，但克文總理不思進行結構性盤整，反而注資銀行製造繁榮假象，自此國家連續3年經濟負成長，整個金融體 系遂徹底垮台，加上聯盟黨獨大的結構，又操控了太多的利益與資源，必然產生太多的利益輸送，以及貪污腐敗的問題。如今愛爾蘭房價已從高點暴跌五成，銀行房 貸大筆爛賬，愛爾蘭能否起死回生很難預估。
經過此次風暴後，綠黨退出愛爾蘭聯合政府，媒體砲轟政府喪權辱國，民怨沸騰，克文政權正處風雨飄搖中。其實此次愛蘭爾風暴起因是執政黨內部的腐敗， 操控愛爾蘭民主黨主要黨務的保守派系，對於黨內改革派的全面擴張影響力，要求進行政黨的全面改革，提出人事、財務、利益的透明化，感到不安與震驚。因為這 些黨內保守派，一向盤據民主黨的廣大既得利益，如何能夠禁得起改革的衝擊，因此開始密謀阻撓改革。問題是他們的形象與能力不足以經歷民意的考驗，所以他們 無法公開與改革派進行決裂，因此他們採取最為可怕的政治暗殺行動，來打擊改革派的掌權。
雖然愛爾蘭執政聯盟在英國的扶持下，仍然能夠勉強的穩住這一連串危機，贏得國會選舉的勝利；但是愛爾蘭克文才就職，準備進行改革，愛爾蘭就爆發了金 融與政治的雙重危機。因為愛蘭爾的整個政治與經濟環境，已經大幅的邁入國際級的開放水準，但是國內的政治與經濟運作，卻因既得利益者的阻擋，沒有進行應有 的結構調整，克文總理身兼財長甚至隱瞞財政金融的問題，只求得過且過，不要在自己的任內爆發就好。結果政府上週才堅稱不需要紓困，如今出爾反爾低頭要錢， 使愛爾蘭陷在風雨飄搖的危機之中，成為歐洲的金融與經貿災難中心。
近年來大馬的發展也遭到了瓶頸，主要原因之一，就是新政黨的改革步伐，遠遠的落後於大馬政治、經濟與社會的進步幅度；國陣至今還沒有完全擺脫種族主 義的決策模式，許多人事、財政、黨務都在派系的操控下進行，對於形象與操守良好的人才，有時造成反淘汰現象。由於執政黨必須靠金權、派系的人馬支撐選舉， 而這些來自金權與派系的支持，自然會要執政黨付出大量的回報代價，因此政治利益輸送、黨紀黨德欠佳等問題，就成為執政黨的致命傷。愛爾蘭的問題與大馬不盡 相同，但有許多可以引為殷鑒之處。
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Source URL: http://opinions.sinchew-i.com/node/17
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
巴菲特接班人 庫姆斯照片曝光
更新: November 17, 2010 18:03
巴菲特接班人
庫姆斯照片曝光
（紐約17日訊）巴菲特接班人庫姆斯（Todd Combs）廬山真面目終曝光！
《財富》雜誌（Fortune）15日公佈庫姆斯（39歲）的照片，他明年1月將正式加入巴菲特執掌的波克夏公司，初期將只管理20億到30億美元（約63億至94億令吉）的投資。
財富這篇標題為“庫姆斯，歡迎來奧瑪哈”的文章是由資深編輯魯米斯（Carol Loomis）撰寫，她是巴菲特老友也是波克夏股東，透過這層關係取得庫姆斯的大頭照。
截至9月底，波克夏的投資組合規模達1130億美元（約3536億令吉），20到30億美元雖只占此投資組合一小部分，但遠高于庫姆斯之前在Castle Point避險基金管理的4億美元（約13億令吉），且與巴菲特熱門接班人選辛普森（Lou Simpson）在波克夏汽車保險部門Geico管理的投資組合規模相當。
這項安排代表巴菲特與副手孟格還在測試庫姆斯，想進一步評估新經理人的操盤技巧與思維。
巴菲特透露，庫姆斯的薪酬由薪水及一套獎勵方案組成，3年間的績效要超越標準普爾500指數，才能獲得獎勵，原則跟辛普森一樣。
巴菲特接班人
庫姆斯照片曝光
（紐約17日訊）巴菲特接班人庫姆斯（Todd Combs）廬山真面目終曝光！
《財富》雜誌（Fortune）15日公佈庫姆斯（39歲）的照片，他明年1月將正式加入巴菲特執掌的波克夏公司，初期將只管理20億到30億美元（約63億至94億令吉）的投資。
財富這篇標題為“庫姆斯，歡迎來奧瑪哈”的文章是由資深編輯魯米斯（Carol Loomis）撰寫，她是巴菲特老友也是波克夏股東，透過這層關係取得庫姆斯的大頭照。
截至9月底，波克夏的投資組合規模達1130億美元（約3536億令吉），20到30億美元雖只占此投資組合一小部分，但遠高于庫姆斯之前在Castle Point避險基金管理的4億美元（約13億令吉），且與巴菲特熱門接班人選辛普森（Lou Simpson）在波克夏汽車保險部門Geico管理的投資組合規模相當。
這項安排代表巴菲特與副手孟格還在測試庫姆斯，想進一步評估新經理人的操盤技巧與思維。
巴菲特透露，庫姆斯的薪酬由薪水及一套獎勵方案組成，3年間的績效要超越標準普爾500指數，才能獲得獎勵，原則跟辛普森一樣。
Saturday, November 13, 2010
UEM Land-Sunrise merger unravelled By ANITA GABRIEL
Saturday November 13, 2010
UEM Land-Sunrise merger unravelled
By ANITA GABRIEL
anita@thestar.com.my
IT's a well-dressed deal, this planned takeover by government-linked UEM Land Holdings Bhd of builder Sunrise Bhd. Accompanied by a cavalcade of rosy numbers and promises that the merged entity will become one of the "leading real estate company by market value, land bank and total assets", not just in Malaysia but the region, the psychology behind the deal is hard to fault.
The truth, however, as analysts and thick-walleted bankers would tell you, rests in the numbers and, of course, execution. And as far as that's concerned, for now, the views appear as varied and divergent as the corporate cultures of UEM Land and Sunrise.
Since the veil was lifted off the quickly-conceived deal a week ago, for many, its obvious financial and strategic merits far outweigh its niggling points. But there are some who quibble over the "low valuation" accorded to Sunrise, while others deem the exercise as benefiting one more than the other.
This must be frustrating indeed for the deal's protagonists. Sunrise's chief steward Datuk Tong Kooi Ong, who is the single largest shareholder and executive chairman, says: "People are always hung up over who gets a better deal. I'm not. If we all try to get a better deal at the expense of the other, then surely we can't get a deal done.
"A deal materialises when both parties believe they are better off. And this one clearly is. The synergies are extremely clear," he says in an interview with StarBizWeek.
The deal in a nutshell
UEM Land has launched a RM1.4bil conditional takeover offer for Sunrise at RM2.80 a piece. Sunrise shareholders have two options – to accept 1.33 UEM Land shares at an issue price of RM2.10/share for every Sunrise share surrendered or to accept 2.8 unlisted redeemable convertible preference share (RCPS) in UEM Land at an issue price of RM1 for every Sunrise share.
Those who opt for the second route, can convert their RCPS any time within two years from the issue date at RM2.30 each.
Shareholders can also choose to redeem RCPS at RM1 upon maturity. Any outstanding RCPS not converted or redeemed will be converted into UEM Land shares automatically.
There's a third option for shareholders if you count dumping their shares and walking away from the deal. OSK Research throws in a fourth – to hold out and wait for a sweeter offer, which it readily admits is risky.
The voluntary general offer is conditional upon UEM Land receiving more than 50% acceptance, which is deemed almost a done deal as three key shareholders – Tong, Datuk Allan Lim and Tan Sri Danny Tan Chee Sing – who collectively own 40.3% interest in Sunrise (25% is held by Tong) have given an irrevocable undertaking to accept the offer.
Assuming a 100% acceptance for the share swap, UEM Group's current stake of 77.1% in UEM Land will be diluted to 65% while Tong and friends will collectively hold 6% in the merged entity and other shareholders of Sunrise will have a collective stake of 9% in UEM Land.
On the other hand, a 100% RCPS alternative with full conversion under the cash conversion method will see UEM Group's stake in UEM Land diluted to 56% while Tong and his friends will collectively hold 11% equity stake in the merged entity and other Sunrise shareholders will have a collective stake of 17%.
The quibble
Could the offer have been better? Maybe.
And more so, if you agree with OSK Research that the Malaysian property scene is "at the cusp of a strong positive re-rating". By most valuation benchmarks – be it price to earnings (P/E), price to net tangible asset (P/NTA) and price to real net asset value (P/RNAV) – it would appear as if the offer falls short.
At RM2.80 a piece and with the just-announced 20 sen net interim dividend tossed in, OSK Research says Sunrise is valued at 1.3 times FY11 price/NTA but at a mere 0.58 times price/RNAV (RNAV of RM5.15),
The offer, says ECM Libra Research, only values Sunrise at 7.3x P/E based on CY11 earnings, which is lower than its peers. "Its closest peer Mah Sing, which has similar market capitalisation and also a perceived lack of landbank, is currently trading at 10.4x P/E based on CY11 earnings," it says.
Sunrise's pre-announcement traded price of RM2.52 is some 23% off its 52-week high of RM3.26 while UEM's last traded price of RM2.26 is merely 10% off its 52-week high of RM2.52.
To put it simply, to accept the offer, Sunrise shareholders ought to be convinced that the merger would unlock more value in their holdings over and above what the company can achieve on a stand alone basis.
Ultimately, the best barometer on the market's take to the offer still rests in the price performance of both counters post-announcement. The deal has received a resounding nod; both counters have leaped since the announcement. Sunrise's shares have climbed 25% from its pre-suspension price of RM2.52 to RM3.16 on Thursday while those of UEM Land has risen by 9% from RM2.26 to RM2.47.
But one market wag says the trend is "rather atypical". "Normally, the buyer's counter will fall while the seller's will go up. But in this instance, both have gone up. Because it's a share swap, if the buyer goes up, the target's price will also rise," he says.
That's a good start, if any and one that UEM Group Bhd group managing director/CEO Datuk Izzaddin Idris can't help but point out: "For a start, the fact that the market has spoken with the appreciation in the respective share prices, is a good sign."
Naturally, Tong can't resist either: "The value proposition for UEM Land is the strength of the people and the brand in Sunrise. It only makes sense if UEM Land can retain and harness this value for the new enlarged UEM Land ... the financial market agrees given the way both companies' shares have appreciated since the deal was announced."
Merger of unequals?
One's a large scale developer with massive tracts of land with an "I got your back" stamp from the Government, given its ultimate controlling shareholder is state investment arm Khazanah Nasional Bhd, while the other, an entrepreneur-driven nimble outfit with a penchant for high-end high rise buildings. Yet, small, Sunrise is anything but.
"Let me correct a general misperception. Sunrise was, but is hardly, a boutique developer today. It is one of Malaysia's largest property developers with sales of RM800mil and pre-tax profit of over RM150mil a year. There are only a handful of other developers in Malaysia with better financials," says Tong.
Melding two diverse corporate cultures could prove to be a tough act.
The different cultures are perhaps best embodied by the top executive cadre of the two entities; Tong is the casually-clad innovative-oriented and creative risk-seeker who used to be a banker and also owns media company The Edge Communications Sdn Bhd apart from having businesses abroad. UEM Land CEO Wan Abdullah Wan Ibrahim is an industry lifer who has spent over a decade of his career in several GLCs while Izzaddin, boss of UEM Group, which controls UEM Land, is a "GLC-lifer" who has spent his career in a smorgasbord of businesses from banking, utility, construction to property. One's a true-blue entrepreneur, while the other two, true blue professional managers.
It's easy to forget but UEM Group is actually more of a "reverse GLC" as it was privately-owned long before it was brought to the fold of state-owned Khazanah.
"UEM has a private sector DNA but it has government backing. In that sense, you can say that both organisations are not as vastly different as perceived. Still there is a state-owned mentality that's quite prevalent in the organisation," says an observer.
But some contend that it is this unique difference which could make the teaming up work.
"The unique thing about property companies is that the cultures may not even have to merge. By nature, a property company is focused on a project by project basis. For example, in UEM Land, the Putera Harbour team (a high end luxury waterfront project) is different from the team that is undertaking the rest of Nusajaya. On the development side, there are always separate teams handling the various projects. That means, one can leverage off the central expertise but each development can run separately," says an industry observer.
Still, quite visibly it's an issue foremost in everyone's mind.
"The major challenge will be people. We will need to address their concerns, to encourage and motivate them," says Tong.
Izzaddin alludes to that when he says: "Ultimately with any business or operational combination, the challenge is to successfully implement the plan to immediately extract the synergies. Call it execution risk. In this case, with the common ground and universal values that both organisations profess coupled with the professionalism and mutual respect we have for each other, I am fairly confident that it will be the case of 1+1 is more than 2. The issue for my team and I is how much more than 2!"
Tension among partners?
Could there be another reason, though not over-riding, for the recent deal? According to industry insiders, there is some long-standing friction between two other major shareholders of Sunrise – Danny Tan and Allan Lim, who respectively own 8.5% and 7.2%. Tan and Lim are brothers-in-law, having married two sisters.
Lim, the executive deputy chairman of Sunrise, according to insiders has keen interest in property development and has contributed substantially to the group's achievements. On the other hand, Tan is regarded as a passive investor in Sunrise as he is the controlling shareholder of another property company Dijaya Corp Bhd.
Still, an industry source says "the issues" between the two parties do not at all affect Sunrise.
For UEM Land, it hooked up with Sunrise after trawling for potential suitors for some time.
"We explored a host of potential candidates. After a careful study ... where we mapped the various candidates' profiles against a selection criteria based on our own strategic requirements, we felt that Sunrise was the most suitable candidate.
We were fortunate that Sunrise shares the same view and more importantly it was a willing seller," says Wan Abdullah.
Paving the way for an exit?
There is a strong sense of foreboding in the marketplace, that Tong, through this deal, is paving the way for his exit from the property developer. That may be a possible risk which, at this juncture, none of the deal's proponents would care to admit as he has been instrumental in the company's commendable growth in recent years.
In fact, Credit Suisse in a recent report pointedly refers to it: "The risks to potential benefits lies in the retention of Sunrise's key staff and the role Sunrise chairman Datuk Tong will play in UEM Land following the acquisition."
OSK Research echoes this sentiment: "Should he (Tong) no longer play a proactive role in driving Sunrise post-merger, there is little doubt that the company's current shareholders may get jittery."
But Tong is quick to brush off such nagging suspicions. "I am a shareholder of Sunrise like other shareholders. This deal creates value for all of us. I am not sure what you mean by "exit". I am not selling out. I am accepting the offer," he says just as pointedly.
"It is not possible to know how long I will stay invested, whether in Sunrise or in the new enlarged UEM Land. Many things can happen to my life. But my intention is to continue (being) invested, to help grow the business and the people and create value for shareholders and customers," he elaborates.
In line with this, Tong will be made chairman of both the development committees of UEM Land and Sunrise, and is expected to be the "platform" to take Nusajaya (UEM Land's flagship project) to the next level. "This appointment is a strong signal from UEM Land (that they want my experience, knowledge and assistance)," says Tong.
Tong's RCPS option
Tong plans to convert his shares in Sunrise to the RCPS of UEM Land. "Taking the RCPS shows my longer term commitment to the enlarged entity. The market would be worried if I take shares on the basis that I will sell out," he says, adding that this acquisition was clearly not just for the physical assets of Sunrise but also "the intangibles, the brand, the people".
"The structure of the RCPS has a good gearing effect on the performance of UEM Land. Although the conversion is at a premium (RM2.30 versus RM2.10), the RCPS holders can opt for cash option redemption as well ... In other words, if UEM Land does well (which I am confident it will), then the RCPS has a very good "option value".
"What options you choose depends on your assessment of the future success of the enlarged entity. The more positive you are of the future UEM Land, the higher is the value of the RCPS. As someone who will be partly responsible for the future UEM Land, I should show by example and commitment and my confidence. Therefore, I must accept the RCPS. It would be wrong otherwise," he adds.
But as far as minority shareholders are concerned, there may be little reason to opt for the RCPS – it is not tradeable, offers zero yield and is convertible at a higher price. "The shares are more liquid. There's no motivation to take up the RCPS. The only one who may be incentivised to do it is someone like Tong as it allows him to buy more shares in future and tap the upside potential of the group, which he will be helping to contribute to anyway over the next two years (tenure of the RCPS)," says an observer.
The pull factor
UEM Land's most prized asset is in Nusajaya, located west of Johor Baru and part of Iskandar Malaysia, a masive southern development corridor project. UEM Land has some 8,300 acres left in Nusajaya, of which about 2,700 acres are currently being developed.
To date, the company has introduced various projects in Nusajaya with a combined gross development value (GDV) of RM13bil. "UEM Land has brought in various development partners to accelerate the development namely Gamuda Bhd, United Malayan Land Bhd, Malaysian Biotechnology Corp Sdn Bhd (BiotechCorp), Encorp Bhd and most recently Bandar Raya Developments Bhd with a total committed land investments of RM744mil.
Sunrise, and more specifically, Tong's role in this precious piece is hard to miss.
"This deal will allow UEM Land to leverage on Sunrise's strong brand equity, pioneering knowledge in developing "lifestyle experience", capable management team and proven track-record in managing development of quality, high-rise residential, serviced residences and commercial properties.
"Sunrise will be able to immediately fill one of the numerous key components of the entire Nusajaya development," says Izzaddin, In short "to pull in the crowd and buyers".
The BIG picture
The deal's merits are hard to knock. UEM Land will be able to feel the sugar rush in its earnings as soon as it consolidates the financial results of the Sunrise group, which has RM3.2bil in GDV for new projects till the end of next year with RM1.2bil in unbilled sales, boasting an admirably high gross margins of 30%.
For Sunrise, it is just as compelling; it can finally diversify from flagship Mont'Kiara, where some say competition is heating up and gain an entry into Iskandar Malaysia, which is in sync with its growth strategy to have "multiple products in multiple locations." It also helps solve its "small landbank" disadvantage (Sunrise has 164 acres versus UEM Land's 11,400 acres).
But be warned – big may be vogue for booming sectors hungry for consolidation but it doesn't always end up better. The corporate landscape around the globe is proof of that.
Closer to home, the mega plantation merger that resulted in the rebirth of a larger Sime Darby Group three years ago is far from flaw-free. If anything, it has taught us that the sweetness in the combined numbers and commercial rhetoric at the inception of such mergers can very soon turn sour if executed poorly.
For we all know, UEM Group, which has to a great extent managed to shed its past stigma, can ill afford another big blunder.
UEM Land-Sunrise merger unravelled
By ANITA GABRIEL
anita@thestar.com.my
IT's a well-dressed deal, this planned takeover by government-linked UEM Land Holdings Bhd of builder Sunrise Bhd. Accompanied by a cavalcade of rosy numbers and promises that the merged entity will become one of the "leading real estate company by market value, land bank and total assets", not just in Malaysia but the region, the psychology behind the deal is hard to fault.
The truth, however, as analysts and thick-walleted bankers would tell you, rests in the numbers and, of course, execution. And as far as that's concerned, for now, the views appear as varied and divergent as the corporate cultures of UEM Land and Sunrise.
Since the veil was lifted off the quickly-conceived deal a week ago, for many, its obvious financial and strategic merits far outweigh its niggling points. But there are some who quibble over the "low valuation" accorded to Sunrise, while others deem the exercise as benefiting one more than the other.
This must be frustrating indeed for the deal's protagonists. Sunrise's chief steward Datuk Tong Kooi Ong, who is the single largest shareholder and executive chairman, says: "People are always hung up over who gets a better deal. I'm not. If we all try to get a better deal at the expense of the other, then surely we can't get a deal done.
"A deal materialises when both parties believe they are better off. And this one clearly is. The synergies are extremely clear," he says in an interview with StarBizWeek.
The deal in a nutshell
UEM Land has launched a RM1.4bil conditional takeover offer for Sunrise at RM2.80 a piece. Sunrise shareholders have two options – to accept 1.33 UEM Land shares at an issue price of RM2.10/share for every Sunrise share surrendered or to accept 2.8 unlisted redeemable convertible preference share (RCPS) in UEM Land at an issue price of RM1 for every Sunrise share.
Those who opt for the second route, can convert their RCPS any time within two years from the issue date at RM2.30 each.
Shareholders can also choose to redeem RCPS at RM1 upon maturity. Any outstanding RCPS not converted or redeemed will be converted into UEM Land shares automatically.
There's a third option for shareholders if you count dumping their shares and walking away from the deal. OSK Research throws in a fourth – to hold out and wait for a sweeter offer, which it readily admits is risky.
The voluntary general offer is conditional upon UEM Land receiving more than 50% acceptance, which is deemed almost a done deal as three key shareholders – Tong, Datuk Allan Lim and Tan Sri Danny Tan Chee Sing – who collectively own 40.3% interest in Sunrise (25% is held by Tong) have given an irrevocable undertaking to accept the offer.
Assuming a 100% acceptance for the share swap, UEM Group's current stake of 77.1% in UEM Land will be diluted to 65% while Tong and friends will collectively hold 6% in the merged entity and other shareholders of Sunrise will have a collective stake of 9% in UEM Land.
On the other hand, a 100% RCPS alternative with full conversion under the cash conversion method will see UEM Group's stake in UEM Land diluted to 56% while Tong and his friends will collectively hold 11% equity stake in the merged entity and other Sunrise shareholders will have a collective stake of 17%.
The quibble
Could the offer have been better? Maybe.
And more so, if you agree with OSK Research that the Malaysian property scene is "at the cusp of a strong positive re-rating". By most valuation benchmarks – be it price to earnings (P/E), price to net tangible asset (P/NTA) and price to real net asset value (P/RNAV) – it would appear as if the offer falls short.
At RM2.80 a piece and with the just-announced 20 sen net interim dividend tossed in, OSK Research says Sunrise is valued at 1.3 times FY11 price/NTA but at a mere 0.58 times price/RNAV (RNAV of RM5.15),
The offer, says ECM Libra Research, only values Sunrise at 7.3x P/E based on CY11 earnings, which is lower than its peers. "Its closest peer Mah Sing, which has similar market capitalisation and also a perceived lack of landbank, is currently trading at 10.4x P/E based on CY11 earnings," it says.
Sunrise's pre-announcement traded price of RM2.52 is some 23% off its 52-week high of RM3.26 while UEM's last traded price of RM2.26 is merely 10% off its 52-week high of RM2.52.
To put it simply, to accept the offer, Sunrise shareholders ought to be convinced that the merger would unlock more value in their holdings over and above what the company can achieve on a stand alone basis.
Ultimately, the best barometer on the market's take to the offer still rests in the price performance of both counters post-announcement. The deal has received a resounding nod; both counters have leaped since the announcement. Sunrise's shares have climbed 25% from its pre-suspension price of RM2.52 to RM3.16 on Thursday while those of UEM Land has risen by 9% from RM2.26 to RM2.47.
But one market wag says the trend is "rather atypical". "Normally, the buyer's counter will fall while the seller's will go up. But in this instance, both have gone up. Because it's a share swap, if the buyer goes up, the target's price will also rise," he says.
That's a good start, if any and one that UEM Group Bhd group managing director/CEO Datuk Izzaddin Idris can't help but point out: "For a start, the fact that the market has spoken with the appreciation in the respective share prices, is a good sign."
Naturally, Tong can't resist either: "The value proposition for UEM Land is the strength of the people and the brand in Sunrise. It only makes sense if UEM Land can retain and harness this value for the new enlarged UEM Land ... the financial market agrees given the way both companies' shares have appreciated since the deal was announced."
Merger of unequals?
One's a large scale developer with massive tracts of land with an "I got your back" stamp from the Government, given its ultimate controlling shareholder is state investment arm Khazanah Nasional Bhd, while the other, an entrepreneur-driven nimble outfit with a penchant for high-end high rise buildings. Yet, small, Sunrise is anything but.
"Let me correct a general misperception. Sunrise was, but is hardly, a boutique developer today. It is one of Malaysia's largest property developers with sales of RM800mil and pre-tax profit of over RM150mil a year. There are only a handful of other developers in Malaysia with better financials," says Tong.
Melding two diverse corporate cultures could prove to be a tough act.
The different cultures are perhaps best embodied by the top executive cadre of the two entities; Tong is the casually-clad innovative-oriented and creative risk-seeker who used to be a banker and also owns media company The Edge Communications Sdn Bhd apart from having businesses abroad. UEM Land CEO Wan Abdullah Wan Ibrahim is an industry lifer who has spent over a decade of his career in several GLCs while Izzaddin, boss of UEM Group, which controls UEM Land, is a "GLC-lifer" who has spent his career in a smorgasbord of businesses from banking, utility, construction to property. One's a true-blue entrepreneur, while the other two, true blue professional managers.
It's easy to forget but UEM Group is actually more of a "reverse GLC" as it was privately-owned long before it was brought to the fold of state-owned Khazanah.
"UEM has a private sector DNA but it has government backing. In that sense, you can say that both organisations are not as vastly different as perceived. Still there is a state-owned mentality that's quite prevalent in the organisation," says an observer.
But some contend that it is this unique difference which could make the teaming up work.
"The unique thing about property companies is that the cultures may not even have to merge. By nature, a property company is focused on a project by project basis. For example, in UEM Land, the Putera Harbour team (a high end luxury waterfront project) is different from the team that is undertaking the rest of Nusajaya. On the development side, there are always separate teams handling the various projects. That means, one can leverage off the central expertise but each development can run separately," says an industry observer.
Still, quite visibly it's an issue foremost in everyone's mind.
"The major challenge will be people. We will need to address their concerns, to encourage and motivate them," says Tong.
Izzaddin alludes to that when he says: "Ultimately with any business or operational combination, the challenge is to successfully implement the plan to immediately extract the synergies. Call it execution risk. In this case, with the common ground and universal values that both organisations profess coupled with the professionalism and mutual respect we have for each other, I am fairly confident that it will be the case of 1+1 is more than 2. The issue for my team and I is how much more than 2!"
Tension among partners?
Could there be another reason, though not over-riding, for the recent deal? According to industry insiders, there is some long-standing friction between two other major shareholders of Sunrise – Danny Tan and Allan Lim, who respectively own 8.5% and 7.2%. Tan and Lim are brothers-in-law, having married two sisters.
Lim, the executive deputy chairman of Sunrise, according to insiders has keen interest in property development and has contributed substantially to the group's achievements. On the other hand, Tan is regarded as a passive investor in Sunrise as he is the controlling shareholder of another property company Dijaya Corp Bhd.
Still, an industry source says "the issues" between the two parties do not at all affect Sunrise.
For UEM Land, it hooked up with Sunrise after trawling for potential suitors for some time.
"We explored a host of potential candidates. After a careful study ... where we mapped the various candidates' profiles against a selection criteria based on our own strategic requirements, we felt that Sunrise was the most suitable candidate.
We were fortunate that Sunrise shares the same view and more importantly it was a willing seller," says Wan Abdullah.
Paving the way for an exit?
There is a strong sense of foreboding in the marketplace, that Tong, through this deal, is paving the way for his exit from the property developer. That may be a possible risk which, at this juncture, none of the deal's proponents would care to admit as he has been instrumental in the company's commendable growth in recent years.
In fact, Credit Suisse in a recent report pointedly refers to it: "The risks to potential benefits lies in the retention of Sunrise's key staff and the role Sunrise chairman Datuk Tong will play in UEM Land following the acquisition."
OSK Research echoes this sentiment: "Should he (Tong) no longer play a proactive role in driving Sunrise post-merger, there is little doubt that the company's current shareholders may get jittery."
But Tong is quick to brush off such nagging suspicions. "I am a shareholder of Sunrise like other shareholders. This deal creates value for all of us. I am not sure what you mean by "exit". I am not selling out. I am accepting the offer," he says just as pointedly.
"It is not possible to know how long I will stay invested, whether in Sunrise or in the new enlarged UEM Land. Many things can happen to my life. But my intention is to continue (being) invested, to help grow the business and the people and create value for shareholders and customers," he elaborates.
In line with this, Tong will be made chairman of both the development committees of UEM Land and Sunrise, and is expected to be the "platform" to take Nusajaya (UEM Land's flagship project) to the next level. "This appointment is a strong signal from UEM Land (that they want my experience, knowledge and assistance)," says Tong.
Tong's RCPS option
Tong plans to convert his shares in Sunrise to the RCPS of UEM Land. "Taking the RCPS shows my longer term commitment to the enlarged entity. The market would be worried if I take shares on the basis that I will sell out," he says, adding that this acquisition was clearly not just for the physical assets of Sunrise but also "the intangibles, the brand, the people".
"The structure of the RCPS has a good gearing effect on the performance of UEM Land. Although the conversion is at a premium (RM2.30 versus RM2.10), the RCPS holders can opt for cash option redemption as well ... In other words, if UEM Land does well (which I am confident it will), then the RCPS has a very good "option value".
"What options you choose depends on your assessment of the future success of the enlarged entity. The more positive you are of the future UEM Land, the higher is the value of the RCPS. As someone who will be partly responsible for the future UEM Land, I should show by example and commitment and my confidence. Therefore, I must accept the RCPS. It would be wrong otherwise," he adds.
But as far as minority shareholders are concerned, there may be little reason to opt for the RCPS – it is not tradeable, offers zero yield and is convertible at a higher price. "The shares are more liquid. There's no motivation to take up the RCPS. The only one who may be incentivised to do it is someone like Tong as it allows him to buy more shares in future and tap the upside potential of the group, which he will be helping to contribute to anyway over the next two years (tenure of the RCPS)," says an observer.
The pull factor
UEM Land's most prized asset is in Nusajaya, located west of Johor Baru and part of Iskandar Malaysia, a masive southern development corridor project. UEM Land has some 8,300 acres left in Nusajaya, of which about 2,700 acres are currently being developed.
To date, the company has introduced various projects in Nusajaya with a combined gross development value (GDV) of RM13bil. "UEM Land has brought in various development partners to accelerate the development namely Gamuda Bhd, United Malayan Land Bhd, Malaysian Biotechnology Corp Sdn Bhd (BiotechCorp), Encorp Bhd and most recently Bandar Raya Developments Bhd with a total committed land investments of RM744mil.
Sunrise, and more specifically, Tong's role in this precious piece is hard to miss.
"This deal will allow UEM Land to leverage on Sunrise's strong brand equity, pioneering knowledge in developing "lifestyle experience", capable management team and proven track-record in managing development of quality, high-rise residential, serviced residences and commercial properties.
"Sunrise will be able to immediately fill one of the numerous key components of the entire Nusajaya development," says Izzaddin, In short "to pull in the crowd and buyers".
The BIG picture
The deal's merits are hard to knock. UEM Land will be able to feel the sugar rush in its earnings as soon as it consolidates the financial results of the Sunrise group, which has RM3.2bil in GDV for new projects till the end of next year with RM1.2bil in unbilled sales, boasting an admirably high gross margins of 30%.
For Sunrise, it is just as compelling; it can finally diversify from flagship Mont'Kiara, where some say competition is heating up and gain an entry into Iskandar Malaysia, which is in sync with its growth strategy to have "multiple products in multiple locations." It also helps solve its "small landbank" disadvantage (Sunrise has 164 acres versus UEM Land's 11,400 acres).
But be warned – big may be vogue for booming sectors hungry for consolidation but it doesn't always end up better. The corporate landscape around the globe is proof of that.
Closer to home, the mega plantation merger that resulted in the rebirth of a larger Sime Darby Group three years ago is far from flaw-free. If anything, it has taught us that the sweetness in the combined numbers and commercial rhetoric at the inception of such mergers can very soon turn sour if executed poorly.
For we all know, UEM Group, which has to a great extent managed to shed its past stigma, can ill afford another big blunder.
Monday, November 8, 2010
试叩历史新高 ●陈金阙
经济眼：试叩历史新高 ●陈金阙
2010/11/05 5:40:52 PM
●陈金阙 财务规划者
不知不觉，马股已站上1500点。在这里，奉劝您不要太相信坊间的话，更不要无条件接纳免费的股票贴士。如果您在这两年没赚到钱，先恭喜您，因为下来一年财神的大门还是为您而开。如果您在这两年赚大钱，我更要恭喜您，因为您智勇双全，在危机中抓到契机，为人所不能，该得个“赞” 字。如果这两年钱没赚到，反而亏了，那也希望您不要放弃，迎向美好的明天，总有意气风发的一日。不过话说回来，马股离历史的高点(1521点)只是区区的 15点，创造历史新高只是时间问题，我们更关心的，是下来的路要怎么走。
有人说，突破历史新高，必然面对投资者套利，先经过一轮卖压，才会重新攀回上升的轨道。这话不尽然对，我们之前的1300点、1400点，同样有这番话冒出来，不过当它突破后，现在回首看来，似是发了一场春梦，似假还真，转眼间已在挑战——跨过了1500点。所以，专家不能告诉您未来绝对的发展，专家只能帮您分析历史：结果A是什么种的因，若不是A，那么结果B又是什么原因造就。
虎年股市虎虎生威
那么，会越来越多人觉得太高了，应该要离场观望吗？这要看您乐意听到什么声音。觉得股市太高的人，早在1100点就已经说出他的担忧了，只是聪明的您没听从他而已。这就如觉得楼市泡沫化一样，知道什么是泡沫吗？炒楼的人告诉我，有通货膨胀就有经济泡沫，您相信吗？笔者倒遇到越来越多的朋友和顾客转行去卖产业了，看来产业似乎才刚刚热起来呢！
我们看年头股市似乎跌跌撞撞的，还怕它双衰退，没想到下半年竟然生龙活虎，大大应了今年虎年的虎虎生威。看淡市的人大跌眼镜，消声匿迹。随着马海事重工控股(MHB) 辉煌挂牌，首日溢价90仙，散户价由3令吉61仙涨至4令吉51仙，让大家乐开怀。其母公司MISC的小股东尤其高兴，盖小股东享有蓝表格权益，公司大方的有求必应，让所有申请者都分到一些MHB新股，大家一齐赚钱。
紧接而来的，是未上市已先轰动的国油化学(Petronas Chemicals) 。无巧不成书，去年引起轰动的吸资王明讯(Maxis) ，也是在11月上市，看来首相蛮喜欢的数字(11) ，一再的捎来佳音，说不定大选也落在明年的11月呢。即将上市的国油化学，其吸资能力比明讯有过之而无不及，筹资达125亿令吉，是今年东南亚融资规模之最。
30综合指数股重洗牌
不但如此，单以散户价5令吉5仙计算，80亿的股本已值404亿令吉，成功突破金融、种植或电讯股垄断马股最大市值的局面，一举占据第五大市值，为油气/工程股争光。同时，它也将成为30综合指数股，为马股攀上历史高峰尽一份力。这里不得不提的是，随着马股水涨船高，30综合指数股也将重新洗牌，那些忝居末席的如成功多多、马航等地位岌岌可危，若不力争上游，必为更强者取代。
2010/11/05 5:40:52 PM
●陈金阙 财务规划者
不知不觉，马股已站上1500点。在这里，奉劝您不要太相信坊间的话，更不要无条件接纳免费的股票贴士。如果您在这两年没赚到钱，先恭喜您，因为下来一年财神的大门还是为您而开。如果您在这两年赚大钱，我更要恭喜您，因为您智勇双全，在危机中抓到契机，为人所不能，该得个“赞” 字。如果这两年钱没赚到，反而亏了，那也希望您不要放弃，迎向美好的明天，总有意气风发的一日。不过话说回来，马股离历史的高点(1521点)只是区区的 15点，创造历史新高只是时间问题，我们更关心的，是下来的路要怎么走。
有人说，突破历史新高，必然面对投资者套利，先经过一轮卖压，才会重新攀回上升的轨道。这话不尽然对，我们之前的1300点、1400点，同样有这番话冒出来，不过当它突破后，现在回首看来，似是发了一场春梦，似假还真，转眼间已在挑战——跨过了1500点。所以，专家不能告诉您未来绝对的发展，专家只能帮您分析历史：结果A是什么种的因，若不是A，那么结果B又是什么原因造就。
虎年股市虎虎生威
那么，会越来越多人觉得太高了，应该要离场观望吗？这要看您乐意听到什么声音。觉得股市太高的人，早在1100点就已经说出他的担忧了，只是聪明的您没听从他而已。这就如觉得楼市泡沫化一样，知道什么是泡沫吗？炒楼的人告诉我，有通货膨胀就有经济泡沫，您相信吗？笔者倒遇到越来越多的朋友和顾客转行去卖产业了，看来产业似乎才刚刚热起来呢！
我们看年头股市似乎跌跌撞撞的，还怕它双衰退，没想到下半年竟然生龙活虎，大大应了今年虎年的虎虎生威。看淡市的人大跌眼镜，消声匿迹。随着马海事重工控股(MHB) 辉煌挂牌，首日溢价90仙，散户价由3令吉61仙涨至4令吉51仙，让大家乐开怀。其母公司MISC的小股东尤其高兴，盖小股东享有蓝表格权益，公司大方的有求必应，让所有申请者都分到一些MHB新股，大家一齐赚钱。
紧接而来的，是未上市已先轰动的国油化学(Petronas Chemicals) 。无巧不成书，去年引起轰动的吸资王明讯(Maxis) ，也是在11月上市，看来首相蛮喜欢的数字(11) ，一再的捎来佳音，说不定大选也落在明年的11月呢。即将上市的国油化学，其吸资能力比明讯有过之而无不及，筹资达125亿令吉，是今年东南亚融资规模之最。
30综合指数股重洗牌
不但如此，单以散户价5令吉5仙计算，80亿的股本已值404亿令吉，成功突破金融、种植或电讯股垄断马股最大市值的局面，一举占据第五大市值，为油气/工程股争光。同时，它也将成为30综合指数股，为马股攀上历史高峰尽一份力。这里不得不提的是，随着马股水涨船高，30综合指数股也将重新洗牌，那些忝居末席的如成功多多、马航等地位岌岌可危，若不力争上游，必为更强者取代。
国行的先见之明 ●刘慧欣
欣言慧语: 国行的先见之明 ●刘慧欣
2010/11/06 5:43:30 PM
●刘慧欣
国家银行宣布，将购买第三间房屋的房贷顶限设在70%，虽然此举不直接影响首次购屋者，也没有对市井小民带来优惠，但对逐渐炽热的房市 ，却起到了降温作用。
目前，大马房市还没泡沫化迹象，但却以高速步伐升值，若政府一直视而不见，等问题恶化时恐怕难以控制。
热钱已成为区域市场目前最大挑战，美国联储局本周四宣布再实施量化宽松政策（QE2），预料将因此制造更多游资涌入新兴市场。其中，房地产是其中一个最易聚集热钱的盆地，各国央行也开始采取策略，“围堵”热钱。
马来西亚国行，向来倾向采取先行措施（Preemptive measure)，面对市场危机时一般快速反应，曾经是亚洲区首个采取货币紧缩政策，应对通胀的国家。
相比其他区域市场，虽然大马房价仍低，但相信国行已经从国外的情况及联储局的二次宽松政策，预测到房价的未来走向。国行将第三间房屋房贷顶限设在70%的措施，显然是要阻遏投机活动。
目前，我国房市投资活动大部分集中在高档区，这些房子的买家，一般是外籍人士或本身已有房子的大马人。买高档产业，主要是看好市场升值趋势，希望从中赚钱。
虽然只集中在特定地区，但当高档房子的价格被炒高，周边产业及其他类型的房价也会受带动而走高。这也是为何，有意购置首间房屋的国人，开始感受到买屋子越来越难。
国行的新政策，将打击投机活动，也有助大众市场的房价以真实价值为基础逐步扬升，对促进房地产市场健康、及市井小民而言都是值得拍手称赞的好事！
2010/11/06 5:43:30 PM
●刘慧欣
国家银行宣布，将购买第三间房屋的房贷顶限设在70%，虽然此举不直接影响首次购屋者，也没有对市井小民带来优惠，但对逐渐炽热的房市 ，却起到了降温作用。
目前，大马房市还没泡沫化迹象，但却以高速步伐升值，若政府一直视而不见，等问题恶化时恐怕难以控制。
热钱已成为区域市场目前最大挑战，美国联储局本周四宣布再实施量化宽松政策（QE2），预料将因此制造更多游资涌入新兴市场。其中，房地产是其中一个最易聚集热钱的盆地，各国央行也开始采取策略，“围堵”热钱。
马来西亚国行，向来倾向采取先行措施（Preemptive measure)，面对市场危机时一般快速反应，曾经是亚洲区首个采取货币紧缩政策，应对通胀的国家。
相比其他区域市场，虽然大马房价仍低，但相信国行已经从国外的情况及联储局的二次宽松政策，预测到房价的未来走向。国行将第三间房屋房贷顶限设在70%的措施，显然是要阻遏投机活动。
目前，我国房市投资活动大部分集中在高档区，这些房子的买家，一般是外籍人士或本身已有房子的大马人。买高档产业，主要是看好市场升值趋势，希望从中赚钱。
虽然只集中在特定地区，但当高档房子的价格被炒高，周边产业及其他类型的房价也会受带动而走高。这也是为何，有意购置首间房屋的国人，开始感受到买屋子越来越难。
国行的新政策，将打击投机活动，也有助大众市场的房价以真实价值为基础逐步扬升，对促进房地产市场健康、及市井小民而言都是值得拍手称赞的好事！
Gold sets a new record high amid economic fears
Published: Tuesday November 9, 2010 MYT 9:05:00 AM
Gold sets a new record high amid economic fears
NEW YORK (AP) — Investors looking for safer places to stow their assets pushed gold to a record price above US$1,400 an ounce Monday as they become more worried about the global economy.
A combination of issues have created fresh worry among investors: Ireland's debt difficulties and two key global summits where leaders of major industrial and developing nations are discussing currencies, free trade and ways to help the world economy.
Also in the back of investors' minds is the prospect of inflation stemming the Federal Reserve's multi-billion bond-buying program.
"People are really concerned again and so I think we're seeing safe-haven buying," IG Markets Inc. CEO Dan Cook said.
"Whether you're holding dollars or euros or whatever you're holding, gold is that one kind of go-to product, a commodity as well as a currency type of trade," he said. "Nobody seems to be that willing to sell out of it."
Gold for December delivery added $5.50 to settle at a record high of $1,403.20 an ounce. Some analysts believe gold could go climb as high as $1,500 an ounce by year end.
In other metals contracts for December, silver added 68.4 cents to settle at $27.432 an ounce; copper gained 0.8 cent to $3.9565 pound and palladium rose $25.50 to $710.90 an ounce. January platinum rose $2.20 to settle at $1,771.10 an ounce.
Oil prices settled at a high for the year while most of the other energy contracts also rose.
Benchmark oil for December delivery settled up 21 cents at $87.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts think oil prices could climb to $90 a barrel by the end of the year.
In other December energy contracts on the Nymex, heating oil added 1.29 cents to settle at $2.3977 a gallon, gasoline slipped 0.15 cent to $2.1785 per gallon while natural gas gained 15.1 cents to $4.088 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Grains and beans were mixed ahead of Tuesday's U.S. Agriculture Department report updating global supply and demand estimates of major crops.
December wheat added 7.5 cents to settle $7.3625 a bushel, December corn gained 11.5 cents to $5.9925 a bushel and January soybeans lost 9.25 cents to $12.7475 a bushel. - AP
Gold sets a new record high amid economic fears
NEW YORK (AP) — Investors looking for safer places to stow their assets pushed gold to a record price above US$1,400 an ounce Monday as they become more worried about the global economy.
A combination of issues have created fresh worry among investors: Ireland's debt difficulties and two key global summits where leaders of major industrial and developing nations are discussing currencies, free trade and ways to help the world economy.
Also in the back of investors' minds is the prospect of inflation stemming the Federal Reserve's multi-billion bond-buying program.
"People are really concerned again and so I think we're seeing safe-haven buying," IG Markets Inc. CEO Dan Cook said.
"Whether you're holding dollars or euros or whatever you're holding, gold is that one kind of go-to product, a commodity as well as a currency type of trade," he said. "Nobody seems to be that willing to sell out of it."
Gold for December delivery added $5.50 to settle at a record high of $1,403.20 an ounce. Some analysts believe gold could go climb as high as $1,500 an ounce by year end.
In other metals contracts for December, silver added 68.4 cents to settle at $27.432 an ounce; copper gained 0.8 cent to $3.9565 pound and palladium rose $25.50 to $710.90 an ounce. January platinum rose $2.20 to settle at $1,771.10 an ounce.
Oil prices settled at a high for the year while most of the other energy contracts also rose.
Benchmark oil for December delivery settled up 21 cents at $87.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts think oil prices could climb to $90 a barrel by the end of the year.
In other December energy contracts on the Nymex, heating oil added 1.29 cents to settle at $2.3977 a gallon, gasoline slipped 0.15 cent to $2.1785 per gallon while natural gas gained 15.1 cents to $4.088 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Grains and beans were mixed ahead of Tuesday's U.S. Agriculture Department report updating global supply and demand estimates of major crops.
December wheat added 7.5 cents to settle $7.3625 a bushel, December corn gained 11.5 cents to $5.9925 a bushel and January soybeans lost 9.25 cents to $12.7475 a bushel. - AP
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