Showing posts with label 1Malaysia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 1Malaysia. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Trade surge in Singapore penny stocks excites Malaysia ----------- Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com
Trade surge in Singapore penny stocks excites Malaysia
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com
Thursday, 10 January 2013 09:28
KUALA LUMPUR: Trading in Malaysia’s speculative penny stocks is expected to be energised by the current high turnover in super-penny stocks on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), local senior dealers said.
The Singapore factor, plus optimism fuelled by positive news from the US fiscal cliff talks, European macro-economic crisis, as well as encouraging economic data from the US and China, are expected to lure greater trading interest in local penny stocks this month, they added.
“We are watching Singapore. Last Friday, its volume suddenly jumped to seven billion shares. We have alerted our own remisiers to prepare for the contagion effect,” said Sam Ng, president of the Remisiers Association of Malaysia.
In December 2012, the average daily trading volume on the SGX was about 2.4 billion shares, its web data shows.
“The super bull in Singapore in super-penny stocks will have an impact on us. And a Chinese New Year (CNY) rally will definitely follow suit,” added Ng, also senior dealer at Interpacific Securities Sdn Bhd.
Goh Kay Chong, a senior dealer at SJ Securities Sdn Bhd, said the currenthigher trading volume is also due to the January effect, apart from the Singapore factor.
“This traditional feel-good factor in January is also luring retail players back to the market. With bonus payments received at around this time of the year, people feel rich and they are finding avenues to invest their money,” he said.
Last Friday, SGX saw its trading volume surge to a feverish pitch, hitting a recent high of 7.05 billion shares valued at S$1.36 billion (RM3.36 billion). The top 10 actives were dominated by penny stocks accounting for 3.58 billion units.
mDR Ltd, which distributes telecommunications devices and provides mobile related services, netted 1.03 billion shares when it closed at 1.8 Singapore cent last Friday.
This was followed by Elektromotive Group Ltd, which closed 0.1 cent higher at 0.4 cent on trades of 518.81 million shares;
while ICP Ltd ended flat at 0.4 cent on 433.11 million shares.
SGX’s strong trading volume, led by penny stocks, persisted this week. On Monday, trades at SGX totalled over 6.5 billion
shares while on Tuesday it was over 5.7 billion. Yesterday, 4.4 billion shares were traded.
Indeed, the contagion effect on Malaysia was already felt last Friday in the local market. Total trades rose to 1.25 billion shares, from 1.12 billion last Thursday. This volume of over one billion has continued into this week so far. Yesterday, the volume totalled 1.1 billion.
Ng noted there was higher retail interest in the local stock market last Friday, taking after Singapore.
According to Albert Fong, president of Society of Remisiers in Singapore, retail investment and contra play, as well as Internet trading have been responsible for the high trades in penny stocks in the republic.
“The fear factor that dominated the whole of last year has dissipated. The removal of three main concerns over US fiscal cliff,
European crisis and China economy has cleared the way for more optimism,” the senior remisier in Singapore told The Edge Financial Daily
Friday, January 15, 2010
AEM (7146, Industrial Product) – a beautiful misunderstood story t
AEM (7146, Industrial Product) – a beautiful misunderstood story that drives it up from 0.44 on Jan 13, 2010 to 1.29 on Jan 15, 2010.
Fundamentally speaking, the stock is probably does not worth 1.29. However, the investors thought that it will go up so they are willing to pay more to catch it, finally, it has to come down.
This stock flied so fast and you cann’t even catch it unless you buy at the high. I discover the stock at around 0.44 and thought that the fundamental is not attractive and I thought the most it can go is 0.51. It went up many times more. Amazing. I have been able to spot some potential stock before it became the hot tips of the market.
On Jan 13, 2010, it suddenly shot up from 0.44 to limit up price at 0.75.
On the same day at 6:21 pm, the company, in replying to the query from Bursa Malaysia, came out with the following statement saying that it is not aware of any other activities that may have contributed to the Unusual Market Activity(UMA):
1. The corporate development relating to the Group business and affairs that has been previously announced that may account for the unusual market activities are:
(a) The Company has appointed MIMB Investment Bank Bhd as our Placement Agent to place out 10% of our share capital. Furthermore, the Company has successfully identified a place for the 10% over the last closing price.
(b) The Company has negotiated with an interested party to provide funding for up to RM 15 million for a term of 2 years at an interest rate of 6 % per annum subject to the funder having a right to convert debts or any part thereof to equity at conversion price of RM 0.55 representing a premium of more than 20% of current closing price. This arrangement is subject to the obtaining of shareholders and regulators approval wherever required.
2. AEM is not aware of any rumour or report concerning the business and affair of the Company that may account for the unusual market activity.
3. AEM is not aware of any other possible explanation to account for the unusual market activity; and
4. AEM is not aware of an material information that requires immediate disclosure in accordance with Paragraph 9.03 of Bursa Securities LR.
On the same day at 6:39 pm, it issued another lengthy statement as follows:
The Board of Directors of the Company wishes to inform that due to the change in the dynamics in the Printed Circuit Boards industry, the Company has decided to embark on an exercise to upgrade, improve its current production capabilities and explore new viable businesses to improve the Company’s performance.
Due to the recent financial crisis, Malaysian operations has been operating at below 60% capacity for the past 2 years and the Company has been looking unsuccessfully for the past 2 years for fresh funds in order to upgrade our production lines so as to compete for more businesses.
In order to address the concerns of the Company’s Bankers, the Company has retained their Corporate Advisors the prominent law firm of Omar Ismail Hazman & Co to assist us in restructuring and transforming the operations of the Company.
The mandate given to the Corporate Advisors of the Company includes negotiation with the Company’s bankers to restructure the Company existing facilities and for additional working capital facilities as well as sourcing for new investors to inject fresh capital into the Company. The Company’s corporate Advisors have also been given the mandate to look for good and viable investments to provide additional income to the Company.
In capitalising the recent increase in our share price, we have also appointed MIMB Investment Bank Bhd as our Placement Agent to place out 10% of our share capital.
In the past 6 months the Directors had been approached by many parties with investments proposals but on review found that the terms were onerous and will not benefit the Company nor the shareholders of the Company and were accordingly rejected by the Directors.
The company is now pleased to announce that the corporate advisors have now advised:
1. that the Company has successfully identified a placee for the 10% private placement at RM0.50 representing a premium of more than 10% over the last closing price.
2. that the Company has negotiated with an interested party to provide funding for up to RM15million for a term of 2 years at an interest rate of 6% per annum subject to the funder having a right to convert debts or any part thereof to equity at conversion price of RM0.55 representing a premium of more than 20% of current closing price. This arrangement is subject to the obtaining of shareholders’ and regulators’ approval wherever required.
On Jan 14, 2010, AEM continued to fly from 0.88 to 1.06.
On the same evening at 6:23 pm, it came out with another statement saying that it is proposing private placement of 8.4495 million new ordinary shares of 0.50 each AEM, representing not more than ten percent of the existing issued and paid-up share capital of AEM.
On Jan 15, 2010, it continued to go on a upward trend from 1.19 to 1.29 but later make a u-turn to come down to as low as 0.90.
Will it ever rebound?
What do you think? I cannot provide all the answer, you have to think for yourself.
Fundamentally speaking, the stock is probably does not worth 1.29. However, the investors thought that it will go up so they are willing to pay more to catch it, finally, it has to come down.
This stock flied so fast and you cann’t even catch it unless you buy at the high. I discover the stock at around 0.44 and thought that the fundamental is not attractive and I thought the most it can go is 0.51. It went up many times more. Amazing. I have been able to spot some potential stock before it became the hot tips of the market.
On Jan 13, 2010, it suddenly shot up from 0.44 to limit up price at 0.75.
On the same day at 6:21 pm, the company, in replying to the query from Bursa Malaysia, came out with the following statement saying that it is not aware of any other activities that may have contributed to the Unusual Market Activity(UMA):
1. The corporate development relating to the Group business and affairs that has been previously announced that may account for the unusual market activities are:
(a) The Company has appointed MIMB Investment Bank Bhd as our Placement Agent to place out 10% of our share capital. Furthermore, the Company has successfully identified a place for the 10% over the last closing price.
(b) The Company has negotiated with an interested party to provide funding for up to RM 15 million for a term of 2 years at an interest rate of 6 % per annum subject to the funder having a right to convert debts or any part thereof to equity at conversion price of RM 0.55 representing a premium of more than 20% of current closing price. This arrangement is subject to the obtaining of shareholders and regulators approval wherever required.
2. AEM is not aware of any rumour or report concerning the business and affair of the Company that may account for the unusual market activity.
3. AEM is not aware of any other possible explanation to account for the unusual market activity; and
4. AEM is not aware of an material information that requires immediate disclosure in accordance with Paragraph 9.03 of Bursa Securities LR.
On the same day at 6:39 pm, it issued another lengthy statement as follows:
The Board of Directors of the Company wishes to inform that due to the change in the dynamics in the Printed Circuit Boards industry, the Company has decided to embark on an exercise to upgrade, improve its current production capabilities and explore new viable businesses to improve the Company’s performance.
Due to the recent financial crisis, Malaysian operations has been operating at below 60% capacity for the past 2 years and the Company has been looking unsuccessfully for the past 2 years for fresh funds in order to upgrade our production lines so as to compete for more businesses.
In order to address the concerns of the Company’s Bankers, the Company has retained their Corporate Advisors the prominent law firm of Omar Ismail Hazman & Co to assist us in restructuring and transforming the operations of the Company.
The mandate given to the Corporate Advisors of the Company includes negotiation with the Company’s bankers to restructure the Company existing facilities and for additional working capital facilities as well as sourcing for new investors to inject fresh capital into the Company. The Company’s corporate Advisors have also been given the mandate to look for good and viable investments to provide additional income to the Company.
In capitalising the recent increase in our share price, we have also appointed MIMB Investment Bank Bhd as our Placement Agent to place out 10% of our share capital.
In the past 6 months the Directors had been approached by many parties with investments proposals but on review found that the terms were onerous and will not benefit the Company nor the shareholders of the Company and were accordingly rejected by the Directors.
The company is now pleased to announce that the corporate advisors have now advised:
1. that the Company has successfully identified a placee for the 10% private placement at RM0.50 representing a premium of more than 10% over the last closing price.
2. that the Company has negotiated with an interested party to provide funding for up to RM15million for a term of 2 years at an interest rate of 6% per annum subject to the funder having a right to convert debts or any part thereof to equity at conversion price of RM0.55 representing a premium of more than 20% of current closing price. This arrangement is subject to the obtaining of shareholders’ and regulators’ approval wherever required.
On Jan 14, 2010, AEM continued to fly from 0.88 to 1.06.
On the same evening at 6:23 pm, it came out with another statement saying that it is proposing private placement of 8.4495 million new ordinary shares of 0.50 each AEM, representing not more than ten percent of the existing issued and paid-up share capital of AEM.
On Jan 15, 2010, it continued to go on a upward trend from 1.19 to 1.29 but later make a u-turn to come down to as low as 0.90.
Will it ever rebound?
What do you think? I cannot provide all the answer, you have to think for yourself.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
12/1 Citibank Bhd announced today that it has received approval from the Securities Commission to set up a stockbroking firm in the country.
12/1 Citibank Bhd announced today that it has received approval from the Securities Commission to set up a stockbroking firm in the country.
Blogger: Citibank is an aggressive marketer. Citibank made more money than many other banks. Citibank brokering firm will be a player to watch. It will become a leader in the stockbroking arena and make Malaysian market more active than before. Watch out. Citibank Securities is coming.
2/1 The FBM KLCI closed down 1.66 pts to 1292.85. Parkson -16 c to RM 6.04, Aeon -16 c to RM 5.04, KNM -1.5c to 79c and Latexx + 68c to RM 4.60.
12/1 Alliance Bank chairman said group CEO Datuk Bridget Lai given one week to answer certain questions as part of internal probe.
12/1 Crude palm oil for March delivery was down Rm 29 at 10.50 am to Rm 2556per tonne.
12/1 To ensure Chinese New Year greeting cards get to recipients by Feb 14, Pos Malaysia wants all cards to be posted by Feb 8, 2010.
12/1 The Dow gained 45.80 points or 0.43pct to 10,663.99 in overnight trade; Crude oil prices finished down 23 cents to USD 82.52 a barrel.
11/1 At 5pm, the FEM KLCI is up 1.53 points to 1294.51; CIMB adds 12 sen to RM 13.50, Penta up 28.5 sen to 53 sen, Genting down 14 sen to Rm 7.40.
11/1 Malaysia’s Nov industrial production falls 1.3 % year-on-year on weak exports, the Stats Dept said today.
Blogger: Citibank is an aggressive marketer. Citibank made more money than many other banks. Citibank brokering firm will be a player to watch. It will become a leader in the stockbroking arena and make Malaysian market more active than before. Watch out. Citibank Securities is coming.
2/1 The FBM KLCI closed down 1.66 pts to 1292.85. Parkson -16 c to RM 6.04, Aeon -16 c to RM 5.04, KNM -1.5c to 79c and Latexx + 68c to RM 4.60.
12/1 Alliance Bank chairman said group CEO Datuk Bridget Lai given one week to answer certain questions as part of internal probe.
12/1 Crude palm oil for March delivery was down Rm 29 at 10.50 am to Rm 2556per tonne.
12/1 To ensure Chinese New Year greeting cards get to recipients by Feb 14, Pos Malaysia wants all cards to be posted by Feb 8, 2010.
12/1 The Dow gained 45.80 points or 0.43pct to 10,663.99 in overnight trade; Crude oil prices finished down 23 cents to USD 82.52 a barrel.
11/1 At 5pm, the FEM KLCI is up 1.53 points to 1294.51; CIMB adds 12 sen to RM 13.50, Penta up 28.5 sen to 53 sen, Genting down 14 sen to Rm 7.40.
11/1 Malaysia’s Nov industrial production falls 1.3 % year-on-year on weak exports, the Stats Dept said today.
Monday, January 11, 2010
stock to watch from Jan 11, 2010
股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價
1.鴻達資源（PRESTAR） 9873 0.63 0.34 0.58 0.63 0.61 0.605 0.57
此股在2009年上半年出現虧損，但，公司在過去皆賺大錢，2006年凈賺1123萬令吉，2007年凈賺1822萬，2008年凈賺1129萬令吉，技術圖顯示此股有機會跨越0.63高點。
2.新楊工業（AEM） 7146 0.51 0.06 0.42 0.51 0.445 0.435 0.45
這是一間進行生產印刷電路板公司，隨著半導體展望向好後，此股也令人注意起來，但這間公司業績一向不好，2005年凈虧430萬，2006年凈虧444萬，2007年凈虧75萬，2008年凈虧661萬。此股一向不活躍，但近日開始有動靜。
3.金鵬集團（TRANMIL） 7000 1.62 0.502 0.915 1.10 0.94 0.925 0.906
隨著大勢的大起，此公司相信會水漲船高，公司經過做假賬風波後，仍處虧損狀態，不過，2008財年虧損大幅收窄。
4.科恩馬集團（KNM） 7164 1.09 0.32 0.78 0.875 0.81 0.79 0.76
該公司取得泰國一項總值達13億泰銖（約1億4300萬令吉）的生物酒精（BIOETHANOL）計劃新訂單，倘若毛賺幅達20%，預計在2010至2011年作出1000萬令吉的凈利貢獻。
5.金務大（GAMUDA） 5398 3.44 1.82 2.58 3.21 2.90 2.84 2.70
該公司有穩當的75億令吉訂單扶托，預計2010至2012財政年的盈利累積平均成長率將高達36%。
1.鴻達資源（PRESTAR） 9873 0.63 0.34 0.58 0.63 0.61 0.605 0.57
此股在2009年上半年出現虧損，但，公司在過去皆賺大錢，2006年凈賺1123萬令吉，2007年凈賺1822萬，2008年凈賺1129萬令吉，技術圖顯示此股有機會跨越0.63高點。
2.新楊工業（AEM） 7146 0.51 0.06 0.42 0.51 0.445 0.435 0.45
這是一間進行生產印刷電路板公司，隨著半導體展望向好後，此股也令人注意起來，但這間公司業績一向不好，2005年凈虧430萬，2006年凈虧444萬，2007年凈虧75萬，2008年凈虧661萬。此股一向不活躍，但近日開始有動靜。
3.金鵬集團（TRANMIL） 7000 1.62 0.502 0.915 1.10 0.94 0.925 0.906
隨著大勢的大起，此公司相信會水漲船高，公司經過做假賬風波後，仍處虧損狀態，不過，2008財年虧損大幅收窄。
4.科恩馬集團（KNM） 7164 1.09 0.32 0.78 0.875 0.81 0.79 0.76
該公司取得泰國一項總值達13億泰銖（約1億4300萬令吉）的生物酒精（BIOETHANOL）計劃新訂單，倘若毛賺幅達20%，預計在2010至2011年作出1000萬令吉的凈利貢獻。
5.金務大（GAMUDA） 5398 3.44 1.82 2.58 3.21 2.90 2.84 2.70
該公司有穩當的75億令吉訂單扶托，預計2010至2012財政年的盈利累積平均成長率將高達36%。
微型貸款申請簡易
貸款有方
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微型貸款申請簡易
《十分專題》部落格：http://fw123.blogspot.com
在全民高喊打擊高利貸的同時，市場也出現借貸無門的批評聲浪，這些人認為現有的微型貸款無法紓解民困，迫使越來越多人向非法借貸者靠攏。
在經濟還未恢復元氣之際，與其諸多抱怨，或者鋌而走險向高利貸借錢，切實了解和充分利用現有微型貸款的條件和配套，才是解決問題之道。
本系列訪問了國家銀行，以及佔了全國微型貸款市場50%比率的Agro銀行，談談微型貸款的發展，讓更多人認識微型貸款的同時，也厘清民間對微型貸款的疑問和不解。
國行副總裁莫哈末：微型貸款計劃原本就是為了紓解微型業者的財務壓力而推出的，該計劃的特點是快、簡單和不需抵押品，成功申請者，最快兩天，最長10天就獲得發放貸款。
阿窿問題也引爆了民間對微型貸款的疑問，不少輿論指出，民間貸款無門，冗長的申請手續不但無助紓解民困，反而迫使更多人投向高利貸。
甚至有人質疑，微型貸款是否“真的提供方便”？不然的話，為何阿窿如此猖狂？
針對坊間的疑問和不解，專門負責推動國家微型貸款計劃的國家銀行副總裁莫哈末依布拉欣一一作出澄清和指正。
申請程序簡單
首先，他要糾正民眾對微型貸款的錯誤看法。
“政府早在2006年已推出微型貸款計劃（Pembiayaan Mikro Scheme），此項計劃的特點是提供簡單、快速方便，以及無抵押的小數額貸款給小型生意人。”
他說，那些凡是從事可行生意的小生意人，皆可以向涉及微型貸款計劃的9家金融機構提出申請，最低的貸款額是500令吉，最高為5萬令吉，但要注意的是，一些金融機構只提供微型貸款給特定領域而已。
“它的申請程序簡單，要填的表格可能只有兩頁而已，毋需抵押品，只需要一些必要的文件和簡單的申請程序。”
必備基本資料
事實上，只要你願意踏出第一步，一些銀行職員甚至願意協助填寫表格。
他也說，微型貸款的批准也很快，“一旦需要的文件準備妥當及提呈之后，申請和發放貸款將在兩天內完成，平均來說，申請程序和手續不應該超過10天。”
而申請者需準備基本的資料，如身分證明、生意證明（商業註冊、執照或營業准證）、收入證明（如銀行戶口文件），以及水電或電話單。
不存種族 固打問題
向大耳窿借貸者，大多數面對個人問題，如欠債累累、要還賭債，不然就是已被列入黑名單，是銀行拒絕往來戶。
針對不少人批評商業銀行微型貸款的利息高，莫哈末說，迄今為止，商業銀行在微型貸款計劃下的平均貸款利率為一年17.5%，比全球的35%來得低。
他表示，由于微型貸款需要更高的行政費用，導致成本增加，包括銀行需要提供顧問諮詢服務、監管及前往貸款者的辦公室收取款項，都需要更高的費用。
他認為，永續發展微型貸款，讓其他微型業者也享有同樣的貸款便利才是最重要的。
在截至今年5月止，微型貸款成長了66%至5億4000萬令吉，超過5萬1000名微型業者受惠，而平均貸款數額為1萬令吉，證明了政府在推動微型貸款方面取得良好的成績。
他呼吁那些需要微型貸款的小販、微型業者應該循正當的管道去借錢，而不是求助非法借貸者。
“所有提供微型貸款的金融機構受到1989年銀行和金融機構法令及2002年發展金融機構法令的管制，比較之下，非法借貸者不但不受管制，同時還採取殘忍和暴力的方式去討債。”
商業銀行的微型貸款為各族人民所設，完全不存在種族固打問題。
積極宣傳 提升醒覺
在金融危機時，銀行謹慎放貸是常態，卻導致民間小企業叫苦連天。
微型貸款計劃的另一項問題是，如何接觸街頭巷尾的微型業者、小販？這些人是非法借貸的常客，也是亟需資金週轉的一群。
莫哈末透露，為了提高普羅大眾對微型貸款的醒覺，國行正在推行多元宣傳政策，包括在電視上打廣告、派發小冊子，在全馬推動微型貸款計劃。
國行已要求提供微型貸款的銀行及它們的分行，共1700家，標上微型貸款標誌，讓有意申請者不會找錯銀行。
接下來，它還計劃舉辦全馬巡迴展覽，直接和全國微型業者接觸，並把微型貸款的資料寄給全國40萬名小生意人，以及提供給中小型企業組織，好讓它們的會員能夠得到這方面的資料。
他說，保持民眾對微型貸款的醒覺和持續的教育，是國行重要的職責。
他也指出，其實商業銀行在提供微型貸款方面並不保守，目前已有另外兩家銀行有興趣加入微型貸款計劃，同時國行也要確保現有的9家金融機構十分活躍。
目前為止，微型貸款計劃已批准了6萬4000宗申請，預料更多人可從中受惠。
詢及政府已經提供多項融資管道，但仍然有人向高利貸借錢，他說，這些人多數面對個人問題，如借錢來解決本身的債務或賭債，或者是那些被列入銀行黑名單的人，雖然想像空間大，但我們無法從非法貸款者的手中獲得相關的數據。
不過，他也建議，那些面對個人財務困難者，可以前來信貸和債務管理機構（AKPK）尋求協助，該機構將協助重組債務，包括房貸、分期付款、信用卡和個人貸款債務。
目前為止，諮詢和債務管理機構已經協助了超過8萬2000人。
哪裡申請 微型貸款
商業銀行提供的微型貸款，由于毋需抵押，所以利息較高，但絕對沒有固打制，同時也比非法放貸安全得多。
哪9家金融機構參與微型貸款計劃？
3 家發展銀行，Agro銀行、人民銀行（Bank Rakyat）和國民儲蓄銀行（BSN Bank），以及6家商業銀行，安聯銀行（Alliance Bank）、阿馬銀行（AMBank）、聯昌銀行（CIMB）、國貿資本回銀 （EONCAP Islamic Bank）、大眾銀行（Public）、 大華銀行（UOB）。
這9家銀行在全馬有1700家分行和策略伙伴，並誌有微型貸款標誌 ，微型生意業者可以前往諮詢和申請。
與無王管的大耳窿不同，國家銀行負責監管微型貸款，如果微型業者面對任何貸款上的困難，可以聯絡國家銀行，國行願意提供協助。
微型業者可以聯絡：
電話：1300-88-5462（三種語文都行）
傳真：03-21741515／21741616
電郵：bnmtelelink@bnm.gov.my
欲重組債務者可以聯絡信貸與債務管理機構（AKPK）
電話：03-26988575
傳真：03-26910846
理應放寬 借貸條件
為了能夠接觸到更多有需要的微型業者，以及提高民間的醒覺，國行計劃推行多元促銷計劃，包括廣告、派傳單以及巡迴展覽。左圖是這國家微型貸款計劃的標誌。
其實，較早前，負責經濟策劃的首相署部長丹斯里諾莫哈末針對銀行微型貸款、固打制和利息問題，發表談話。
他表示，政府是根據績效發放微型貸款，不會實行固打制，同時也承認，商業銀行提供18%的微型貸款利率確實太高，政府會致力減低這個利率。
他也說，政府已與銀行進行多次商討，並要求銀行在這時期不要實行嚴苛的借貸條件，同時也要求銀行應該採取主動。
不過，他也說，銀行在金融危機時收回一些貸款便利，是危機時期的常態，也是鐘擺定律。
當經濟大好時，銀行願意發出借貸，甚至親自到你的家去提供“雨傘”（貸款），不過下雨（經濟放緩）時銀行就會收回之前給你的傘，“政府已多次要求銀行不要這樣做。”
ESP-i惠及農基領域
《十分專題》部落格：http://fw123.blogspot.com
除了微型貸款，前身為農業銀行的Agro銀行也推出微型ESP-i（Micro ESP-i）基金，此項基金主要惠及對象是微型農基業者，小園主、農夫，以及使用本地農產品作為原料的經營者，甚至在街頭擺賣本地食品的小販也可以申請。
微型ESP-i以固定利息提供微型貸款給農基領域，同樣的也不設種族固打制，所有21歲至60歲的大馬公民，不管是全職還是兼職，只要從事與農業相關行業，都有申請資格。
微型ESP-i經在今年6月推出，總基金額為3000萬令吉，目前已發放了相等于10%款項的貸款，還有90%有待申請。
前身為農業銀行的Agro銀行，為市場最活躍的微型貸款計劃銀行，該銀行微型貸款的對象不限農業領域，而是開放給所有大馬公民。
微型ESP-i的推出是為了協助遭遇金融風暴打擊的微型農基業者，作為振興經濟配套的一部分，該計劃把對象擴大至整個農業和農基行業。
除了小園主、農夫、漁夫等等，受惠對象還擴大至農產品銷售、加工和服務，這意味著，受惠者可以是魚塘經營者、巴剎販賣本地蔬菜、水果的小販、街頭巷尾炸香蕉、炸魚餅的小檔口等等。
Agro銀行商業產品管理經理黃秋雲指出，那些以大馬農產品為原料的微型業者，都可以申請。“總之，他們從事的生意必須與農業相關的。”當然，申請者必須符合微型企業的條件。
公開給國人
此項回教化微型貸款基金不限回教徒，公開給所有的公民。
他說，該基金的總基金額為3000萬令吉，當中2000萬令吉保留給農基業生產者，1000萬令吉則公開給所有與農業相關行業的人申請，前者的利息為4%，后者則是10%。
在農基生產商方面，最高的貸款數額為5萬令吉，農產品加工、銷售和服務業者的最高貸款額為2萬令吉，兩者的攤還期限最長5年，有意申請者可以在Agro銀行分佈于全馬的121家分行申請。“我們在適耕莊和金馬侖有分行。”
他點出微型ESP-i的特點，“即使是受薪人士，如果他們兼職與農業相關的生意，也可以申請，但要出示薪水單。”
他說，微型ESP-i的特色與微型貸款一樣，簡單、快速和方便，同時不需要抵押品和擔保人，但最重要的是，申請者必須證明那是一盤有收入的生意，本身有經營此行的經驗，以資證明他們日后有攤還貸款的能力。
他說，這是因為要讓此項計劃永續經營下去，讓更多微型業者受惠。
再循環運轉
經濟吹淡風，被辭退、生意不好而陷入財困的人不在少數，市面上有不少正規的貸款管道，視乎你的借貸條件和還債能力而定。
“這是政府交由我們發放的基金，主要減輕微型業者的財務壓力，今年6月已公開讓相關領域的業者申請，直至有關的基金額借完為止。”
他預計，有關微型貸款計劃有望在半年內悉數放貸完畢。
由于微型ESP-i計劃是再循環運轉，所以一旦借貸者開始還錢，並累積至一定的數額之后，該基金將再度公開給公眾申請。
此外，該銀行還提供創業貸款，“一些銀行的創業貸款的條件是有經驗者才可以申請，但我們不設此項條件，這是政府為了鼓勵人民創業而設的貸款，最高的貸款額為2萬令吉。”
先行評估 避免濫用
為了避免申請者濫用微型貸款便利，銀行需要申請者的身分證明，以及一些基本的財務文件，即銀行來往戶口的文件等等。黃秋雲解釋，它的宗旨是協助微型業者渡過難關，而不是讓他們借錢還債，所以才會需要證明文件。
同時銀行本身也會評估借貸者所需的貸款數額，而不是說他們要借多少就給多少，此舉也招致了不少批評。他解釋說。“一些人向銀行貸款3萬令吉，當中的2萬令吉用來還債，或是充為其他用途，真正用在生意上只有1萬令吉，為了避免及減少這種事情的發生，才要事先評估。”
他也透露，為了進一步的擴充微型貸款業務，該銀行已經另外增加和訓練100名初級職員，這批職員將分發至各分行以協助處理微型貸款計劃。
“我們預料，這100名員工投入工作之后，將解決人手不足的問題，加速微型貸款的處理工作，同時也能夠提供更好的服務予客戶。”此舉也證明了該銀行十分重視微型貸款的業務和成長。
利息較高 情有可原
黃秋雲：微型ESP-i貸款基金的好處是對象不限于農基業者，還概括了農產品加工、銷售和服務領域，受惠的範圍更加廣泛，也顯示了政府有意紓解民困。
雖然不少人不滿商業銀行在微型貸款上收取高利息，並且申請者也要符合特定的條件，但向金融機構借錢，還是比非法借貸來得好，至少借貸者不會擔心生命受到威脅。
黃秋雲說，由于微型貸款屬于風險較高的貸款，所以利息較高是無可厚非的，加上銀行的成本也會相應提高，“我們需要更多的行政職員，同時還要親自上門收取貸款，開銷較高。”
比較起其他商業銀行，Agro銀行稱得上是全馬最積極投入微型貸款計劃的金融機構，佔了微型貸款市場的50%市場份額，目前，其微型貸款利息為14%，稱得上是全行最具有競爭力的，其在2005年推出的微型貸款計劃已經發出了4億3100萬令吉貸款，借貸者數目達到3萬7865人。
他表示，該銀行旗下的微型貸款（農業企業資金，MUST）是公開予各領域的微型業者申請，對象不局限于農業業者，手續簡單。
“假設申請者把所有的基本文件準妥並提呈上來，我們可以4至7個工作天內完成有關的申請。”
但他要申請者明白，再簡單快速的貸款便利，還是需要一定的證明文件，這是因為銀行也要保障本身發放出去的貸款不會淪為壞賬，而是能夠收回錢、有利可圖的，“我們也要向存戶、股東和政府負責。”
典當黃金 換取現金款
在金融危機時，銀行謹慎放貸是常態，卻導致民間小企業叫苦連天。
要典當黃金換取現金，除了傳統當店，也可以去銀行。
Agro銀行還提供“黃金抵押服務”，稱為Ar-Rahnu，就是我們熟悉的“當店”，這也是另一種能夠快速拿到錢的方式。
申請方法簡單，申請者必須超過18歲，帶備了要典當的黃金物品，填表格和交上身份證副印本之后，前往Ar-Rahnu櫃台申請，經過相關職員評估黃金的價值之后，馬上可以拿到現金。
此項典當服務只限黃金，第一次贖回期限是6個月，接下來可以延長至3個月，然后再延長至2個月，最高數額為5萬令吉，最低數額為100令吉。
雖然有關服務是根據回教條規行事，但非教徒也可以申請。
欲借錢 須遵守規則
“有借有還”，銀行才會繼續借錢給你，若想有借無還、走捷徑的話，神仙也難打救。
向人借錢，是迫不得已的事；有人送錢上門，更非好事，在商業社會，要借錢，就得遵守商業社會的規則，不能討了便宜還賣乖。
其實不少商業銀行在處理微型貸款的手法，相當有彈性，同時態度有商有量，比如說，如果借貸人能夠提供擔保人的話，可能在利息方面有商量的空間；一些還貸記錄乾淨的商家，可以在原有的貸款到期之前申請額外的融資便利等等。
只不過，不少人一聽到要上門向銀行借錢就不情願，怕麻煩、不清楚當中的條件、不敢也不想嘗試。
比較起送錢上門的非法信貸業者，金融機構的貸款有一定的條件和程序，除了準備文件，提呈一次申請，借貸者至少要跑3至4次銀行才借到錢，很多人覺得麻煩，或者一些有自知之明的人，知道自己不符合條件，所以不向正式管道求助，轉而向阿窿借錢。
“天下沒有免費的午餐”，何況是送上門來的午餐呢？金融機構是追求盈利的，它借錢給你，當然要你證明日后有還錢能力，不然只借不還，誰敢借錢給你？
如果你的財務記錄不良，請先重組你的債務然后再盤算如何還債；如果你覺得你從事的生意前景一片光明，那請先準備建議書，說明你的生意和資金週轉狀況，至少展示出誠意，接下來就交由銀行決定。
行情不好，生意大打折扣，小生意人面對財困，不出奇，怕的是沒有解決問題的決心，只想靠人打救，或者是只借不還、想走捷徑，這樣的想法，不要說是政府，連神仙也難打救！
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微型貸款申請簡易
《十分專題》部落格：http://fw123.blogspot.com
在全民高喊打擊高利貸的同時，市場也出現借貸無門的批評聲浪，這些人認為現有的微型貸款無法紓解民困，迫使越來越多人向非法借貸者靠攏。
在經濟還未恢復元氣之際，與其諸多抱怨，或者鋌而走險向高利貸借錢，切實了解和充分利用現有微型貸款的條件和配套，才是解決問題之道。
本系列訪問了國家銀行，以及佔了全國微型貸款市場50%比率的Agro銀行，談談微型貸款的發展，讓更多人認識微型貸款的同時，也厘清民間對微型貸款的疑問和不解。
國行副總裁莫哈末：微型貸款計劃原本就是為了紓解微型業者的財務壓力而推出的，該計劃的特點是快、簡單和不需抵押品，成功申請者，最快兩天，最長10天就獲得發放貸款。
阿窿問題也引爆了民間對微型貸款的疑問，不少輿論指出，民間貸款無門，冗長的申請手續不但無助紓解民困，反而迫使更多人投向高利貸。
甚至有人質疑，微型貸款是否“真的提供方便”？不然的話，為何阿窿如此猖狂？
針對坊間的疑問和不解，專門負責推動國家微型貸款計劃的國家銀行副總裁莫哈末依布拉欣一一作出澄清和指正。
申請程序簡單
首先，他要糾正民眾對微型貸款的錯誤看法。
“政府早在2006年已推出微型貸款計劃（Pembiayaan Mikro Scheme），此項計劃的特點是提供簡單、快速方便，以及無抵押的小數額貸款給小型生意人。”
他說，那些凡是從事可行生意的小生意人，皆可以向涉及微型貸款計劃的9家金融機構提出申請，最低的貸款額是500令吉，最高為5萬令吉，但要注意的是，一些金融機構只提供微型貸款給特定領域而已。
“它的申請程序簡單，要填的表格可能只有兩頁而已，毋需抵押品，只需要一些必要的文件和簡單的申請程序。”
必備基本資料
事實上，只要你願意踏出第一步，一些銀行職員甚至願意協助填寫表格。
他也說，微型貸款的批准也很快，“一旦需要的文件準備妥當及提呈之后，申請和發放貸款將在兩天內完成，平均來說，申請程序和手續不應該超過10天。”
而申請者需準備基本的資料，如身分證明、生意證明（商業註冊、執照或營業准證）、收入證明（如銀行戶口文件），以及水電或電話單。
不存種族 固打問題
向大耳窿借貸者，大多數面對個人問題，如欠債累累、要還賭債，不然就是已被列入黑名單，是銀行拒絕往來戶。
針對不少人批評商業銀行微型貸款的利息高，莫哈末說，迄今為止，商業銀行在微型貸款計劃下的平均貸款利率為一年17.5%，比全球的35%來得低。
他表示，由于微型貸款需要更高的行政費用，導致成本增加，包括銀行需要提供顧問諮詢服務、監管及前往貸款者的辦公室收取款項，都需要更高的費用。
他認為，永續發展微型貸款，讓其他微型業者也享有同樣的貸款便利才是最重要的。
在截至今年5月止，微型貸款成長了66%至5億4000萬令吉，超過5萬1000名微型業者受惠，而平均貸款數額為1萬令吉，證明了政府在推動微型貸款方面取得良好的成績。
他呼吁那些需要微型貸款的小販、微型業者應該循正當的管道去借錢，而不是求助非法借貸者。
“所有提供微型貸款的金融機構受到1989年銀行和金融機構法令及2002年發展金融機構法令的管制，比較之下，非法借貸者不但不受管制，同時還採取殘忍和暴力的方式去討債。”
商業銀行的微型貸款為各族人民所設，完全不存在種族固打問題。
積極宣傳 提升醒覺
在金融危機時，銀行謹慎放貸是常態，卻導致民間小企業叫苦連天。
微型貸款計劃的另一項問題是，如何接觸街頭巷尾的微型業者、小販？這些人是非法借貸的常客，也是亟需資金週轉的一群。
莫哈末透露，為了提高普羅大眾對微型貸款的醒覺，國行正在推行多元宣傳政策，包括在電視上打廣告、派發小冊子，在全馬推動微型貸款計劃。
國行已要求提供微型貸款的銀行及它們的分行，共1700家，標上微型貸款標誌，讓有意申請者不會找錯銀行。
接下來，它還計劃舉辦全馬巡迴展覽，直接和全國微型業者接觸，並把微型貸款的資料寄給全國40萬名小生意人，以及提供給中小型企業組織，好讓它們的會員能夠得到這方面的資料。
他說，保持民眾對微型貸款的醒覺和持續的教育，是國行重要的職責。
他也指出，其實商業銀行在提供微型貸款方面並不保守，目前已有另外兩家銀行有興趣加入微型貸款計劃，同時國行也要確保現有的9家金融機構十分活躍。
目前為止，微型貸款計劃已批准了6萬4000宗申請，預料更多人可從中受惠。
詢及政府已經提供多項融資管道，但仍然有人向高利貸借錢，他說，這些人多數面對個人問題，如借錢來解決本身的債務或賭債，或者是那些被列入銀行黑名單的人，雖然想像空間大，但我們無法從非法貸款者的手中獲得相關的數據。
不過，他也建議，那些面對個人財務困難者，可以前來信貸和債務管理機構（AKPK）尋求協助，該機構將協助重組債務，包括房貸、分期付款、信用卡和個人貸款債務。
目前為止，諮詢和債務管理機構已經協助了超過8萬2000人。
哪裡申請 微型貸款
商業銀行提供的微型貸款，由于毋需抵押，所以利息較高，但絕對沒有固打制，同時也比非法放貸安全得多。
哪9家金融機構參與微型貸款計劃？
3 家發展銀行，Agro銀行、人民銀行（Bank Rakyat）和國民儲蓄銀行（BSN Bank），以及6家商業銀行，安聯銀行（Alliance Bank）、阿馬銀行（AMBank）、聯昌銀行（CIMB）、國貿資本回銀 （EONCAP Islamic Bank）、大眾銀行（Public）、 大華銀行（UOB）。
這9家銀行在全馬有1700家分行和策略伙伴，並誌有微型貸款標誌 ，微型生意業者可以前往諮詢和申請。
與無王管的大耳窿不同，國家銀行負責監管微型貸款，如果微型業者面對任何貸款上的困難，可以聯絡國家銀行，國行願意提供協助。
微型業者可以聯絡：
電話：1300-88-5462（三種語文都行）
傳真：03-21741515／21741616
電郵：bnmtelelink@bnm.gov.my
欲重組債務者可以聯絡信貸與債務管理機構（AKPK）
電話：03-26988575
傳真：03-26910846
理應放寬 借貸條件
為了能夠接觸到更多有需要的微型業者，以及提高民間的醒覺，國行計劃推行多元促銷計劃，包括廣告、派傳單以及巡迴展覽。左圖是這國家微型貸款計劃的標誌。
其實，較早前，負責經濟策劃的首相署部長丹斯里諾莫哈末針對銀行微型貸款、固打制和利息問題，發表談話。
他表示，政府是根據績效發放微型貸款，不會實行固打制，同時也承認，商業銀行提供18%的微型貸款利率確實太高，政府會致力減低這個利率。
他也說，政府已與銀行進行多次商討，並要求銀行在這時期不要實行嚴苛的借貸條件，同時也要求銀行應該採取主動。
不過，他也說，銀行在金融危機時收回一些貸款便利，是危機時期的常態，也是鐘擺定律。
當經濟大好時，銀行願意發出借貸，甚至親自到你的家去提供“雨傘”（貸款），不過下雨（經濟放緩）時銀行就會收回之前給你的傘，“政府已多次要求銀行不要這樣做。”
ESP-i惠及農基領域
《十分專題》部落格：http://fw123.blogspot.com
除了微型貸款，前身為農業銀行的Agro銀行也推出微型ESP-i（Micro ESP-i）基金，此項基金主要惠及對象是微型農基業者，小園主、農夫，以及使用本地農產品作為原料的經營者，甚至在街頭擺賣本地食品的小販也可以申請。
微型ESP-i以固定利息提供微型貸款給農基領域，同樣的也不設種族固打制，所有21歲至60歲的大馬公民，不管是全職還是兼職，只要從事與農業相關行業，都有申請資格。
微型ESP-i經在今年6月推出，總基金額為3000萬令吉，目前已發放了相等于10%款項的貸款，還有90%有待申請。
前身為農業銀行的Agro銀行，為市場最活躍的微型貸款計劃銀行，該銀行微型貸款的對象不限農業領域，而是開放給所有大馬公民。
微型ESP-i的推出是為了協助遭遇金融風暴打擊的微型農基業者，作為振興經濟配套的一部分，該計劃把對象擴大至整個農業和農基行業。
除了小園主、農夫、漁夫等等，受惠對象還擴大至農產品銷售、加工和服務，這意味著，受惠者可以是魚塘經營者、巴剎販賣本地蔬菜、水果的小販、街頭巷尾炸香蕉、炸魚餅的小檔口等等。
Agro銀行商業產品管理經理黃秋雲指出，那些以大馬農產品為原料的微型業者，都可以申請。“總之，他們從事的生意必須與農業相關的。”當然，申請者必須符合微型企業的條件。
公開給國人
此項回教化微型貸款基金不限回教徒，公開給所有的公民。
他說，該基金的總基金額為3000萬令吉，當中2000萬令吉保留給農基業生產者，1000萬令吉則公開給所有與農業相關行業的人申請，前者的利息為4%，后者則是10%。
在農基生產商方面，最高的貸款數額為5萬令吉，農產品加工、銷售和服務業者的最高貸款額為2萬令吉，兩者的攤還期限最長5年，有意申請者可以在Agro銀行分佈于全馬的121家分行申請。“我們在適耕莊和金馬侖有分行。”
他點出微型ESP-i的特點，“即使是受薪人士，如果他們兼職與農業相關的生意，也可以申請，但要出示薪水單。”
他說，微型ESP-i的特色與微型貸款一樣，簡單、快速和方便，同時不需要抵押品和擔保人，但最重要的是，申請者必須證明那是一盤有收入的生意，本身有經營此行的經驗，以資證明他們日后有攤還貸款的能力。
他說，這是因為要讓此項計劃永續經營下去，讓更多微型業者受惠。
再循環運轉
經濟吹淡風，被辭退、生意不好而陷入財困的人不在少數，市面上有不少正規的貸款管道，視乎你的借貸條件和還債能力而定。
“這是政府交由我們發放的基金，主要減輕微型業者的財務壓力，今年6月已公開讓相關領域的業者申請，直至有關的基金額借完為止。”
他預計，有關微型貸款計劃有望在半年內悉數放貸完畢。
由于微型ESP-i計劃是再循環運轉，所以一旦借貸者開始還錢，並累積至一定的數額之后，該基金將再度公開給公眾申請。
此外，該銀行還提供創業貸款，“一些銀行的創業貸款的條件是有經驗者才可以申請，但我們不設此項條件，這是政府為了鼓勵人民創業而設的貸款，最高的貸款額為2萬令吉。”
先行評估 避免濫用
為了避免申請者濫用微型貸款便利，銀行需要申請者的身分證明，以及一些基本的財務文件，即銀行來往戶口的文件等等。黃秋雲解釋，它的宗旨是協助微型業者渡過難關，而不是讓他們借錢還債，所以才會需要證明文件。
同時銀行本身也會評估借貸者所需的貸款數額，而不是說他們要借多少就給多少，此舉也招致了不少批評。他解釋說。“一些人向銀行貸款3萬令吉，當中的2萬令吉用來還債，或是充為其他用途，真正用在生意上只有1萬令吉，為了避免及減少這種事情的發生，才要事先評估。”
他也透露，為了進一步的擴充微型貸款業務，該銀行已經另外增加和訓練100名初級職員，這批職員將分發至各分行以協助處理微型貸款計劃。
“我們預料，這100名員工投入工作之后，將解決人手不足的問題，加速微型貸款的處理工作，同時也能夠提供更好的服務予客戶。”此舉也證明了該銀行十分重視微型貸款的業務和成長。
利息較高 情有可原
黃秋雲：微型ESP-i貸款基金的好處是對象不限于農基業者，還概括了農產品加工、銷售和服務領域，受惠的範圍更加廣泛，也顯示了政府有意紓解民困。
雖然不少人不滿商業銀行在微型貸款上收取高利息，並且申請者也要符合特定的條件，但向金融機構借錢，還是比非法借貸來得好，至少借貸者不會擔心生命受到威脅。
黃秋雲說，由于微型貸款屬于風險較高的貸款，所以利息較高是無可厚非的，加上銀行的成本也會相應提高，“我們需要更多的行政職員，同時還要親自上門收取貸款，開銷較高。”
比較起其他商業銀行，Agro銀行稱得上是全馬最積極投入微型貸款計劃的金融機構，佔了微型貸款市場的50%市場份額，目前，其微型貸款利息為14%，稱得上是全行最具有競爭力的，其在2005年推出的微型貸款計劃已經發出了4億3100萬令吉貸款，借貸者數目達到3萬7865人。
他表示，該銀行旗下的微型貸款（農業企業資金，MUST）是公開予各領域的微型業者申請，對象不局限于農業業者，手續簡單。
“假設申請者把所有的基本文件準妥並提呈上來，我們可以4至7個工作天內完成有關的申請。”
但他要申請者明白，再簡單快速的貸款便利，還是需要一定的證明文件，這是因為銀行也要保障本身發放出去的貸款不會淪為壞賬，而是能夠收回錢、有利可圖的，“我們也要向存戶、股東和政府負責。”
典當黃金 換取現金款
在金融危機時，銀行謹慎放貸是常態，卻導致民間小企業叫苦連天。
要典當黃金換取現金，除了傳統當店，也可以去銀行。
Agro銀行還提供“黃金抵押服務”，稱為Ar-Rahnu，就是我們熟悉的“當店”，這也是另一種能夠快速拿到錢的方式。
申請方法簡單，申請者必須超過18歲，帶備了要典當的黃金物品，填表格和交上身份證副印本之后，前往Ar-Rahnu櫃台申請，經過相關職員評估黃金的價值之后，馬上可以拿到現金。
此項典當服務只限黃金，第一次贖回期限是6個月，接下來可以延長至3個月，然后再延長至2個月，最高數額為5萬令吉，最低數額為100令吉。
雖然有關服務是根據回教條規行事，但非教徒也可以申請。
欲借錢 須遵守規則
“有借有還”，銀行才會繼續借錢給你，若想有借無還、走捷徑的話，神仙也難打救。
向人借錢，是迫不得已的事；有人送錢上門，更非好事，在商業社會，要借錢，就得遵守商業社會的規則，不能討了便宜還賣乖。
其實不少商業銀行在處理微型貸款的手法，相當有彈性，同時態度有商有量，比如說，如果借貸人能夠提供擔保人的話，可能在利息方面有商量的空間；一些還貸記錄乾淨的商家，可以在原有的貸款到期之前申請額外的融資便利等等。
只不過，不少人一聽到要上門向銀行借錢就不情願，怕麻煩、不清楚當中的條件、不敢也不想嘗試。
比較起送錢上門的非法信貸業者，金融機構的貸款有一定的條件和程序，除了準備文件，提呈一次申請，借貸者至少要跑3至4次銀行才借到錢，很多人覺得麻煩，或者一些有自知之明的人，知道自己不符合條件，所以不向正式管道求助，轉而向阿窿借錢。
“天下沒有免費的午餐”，何況是送上門來的午餐呢？金融機構是追求盈利的，它借錢給你，當然要你證明日后有還錢能力，不然只借不還，誰敢借錢給你？
如果你的財務記錄不良，請先重組你的債務然后再盤算如何還債；如果你覺得你從事的生意前景一片光明，那請先準備建議書，說明你的生意和資金週轉狀況，至少展示出誠意，接下來就交由銀行決定。
行情不好，生意大打折扣，小生意人面對財困，不出奇，怕的是沒有解決問題的決心，只想靠人打救，或者是只借不還、想走捷徑，這樣的想法，不要說是政府，連神仙也難打救！
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Contrarian Investor Predicts Economic Crash in China
January 8, 2010
Contrarian Investor Predicts Economic Crash in China
By DAVID BARBOZA
SHANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.
Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession,
Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
“Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.” He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.
As America’s pre-eminent short-seller — he bets big money that companies’ strategies will fail — Mr. Chanos’s narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.
Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.
Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.
For all his record of prescience — in addition to predicting Enron’s demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world’s biggest banks — his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.
“I find it interesting that people who couldn’t spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China,” said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. “China is not in a bubble.”
Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China’s economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.
But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China’s stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.
“In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he’s been tilting against all these decades,” said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. “He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That’s been his stock and trade.”
Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.
“The Chinese,” he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, “are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.”
In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.
In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.
The nation’s huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.
But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of “speculative capital,” has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.
A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 — one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.
“It’s going to be a bust,” said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, “The Coming Collapse of China” (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.
Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd — even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.
A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm’s offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.
“His record is impressive,” said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. “He’s no fly-by-night charlatan. And I’m bullish on China.”
Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.
His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called “The Contrarian Investor,” according to an account of his life in “The Smartest Guys in the Room,” a book that chronicled Enron’s rise and downfall.
After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.
At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in “outright fraud.”
That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.
Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.
Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other “financial disasters” over the years.
“They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys,” he has said.
Contrarian Investor Predicts Economic Crash in China
By DAVID BARBOZA
SHANGHAI — James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.
Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession,
Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
“Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses,” he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. “And there’s no bigger credit excess than in China.” He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.
As America’s pre-eminent short-seller — he bets big money that companies’ strategies will fail — Mr. Chanos’s narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.
Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.
Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.
For all his record of prescience — in addition to predicting Enron’s demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world’s biggest banks — his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.
“I find it interesting that people who couldn’t spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China,” said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. “China is not in a bubble.”
Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China’s economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.
But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China’s stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.
“In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he’s been tilting against all these decades,” said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. “He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That’s been his stock and trade.”
Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.
“The Chinese,” he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, “are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell.”
In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.
In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.
The nation’s huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.
But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of “speculative capital,” has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.
A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 — one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.
“It’s going to be a bust,” said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, “The Coming Collapse of China” (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.
Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd — even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.
A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm’s offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.
“His record is impressive,” said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. “He’s no fly-by-night charlatan. And I’m bullish on China.”
Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.
His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called “The Contrarian Investor,” according to an account of his life in “The Smartest Guys in the Room,” a book that chronicled Enron’s rise and downfall.
After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.
At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in “outright fraud.”
That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.
Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.
Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other “financial disasters” over the years.
“They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys,” he has said.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
5/1 FBM KLCI rose 12.49 to 1288.44.
5/1 FBM KLCI rose 12.49 to 1288.44. Gainers overwhelmed losers 658 to 184 counters on volume of 1.18 bil shares worth RM 1.12bil.
5/1 Ringgit rose to a 7-week high against the US dollar at 3.385; Crude oil nears US$82 per barrel, while CPO futures gained RM 19 to RM 2,699.
5/1 Overnight Dow advanced 155.91 points, or 1.5 pct to 10,583.96; Crude oil futures jumped USD 2.15 to USD 81.51 a barrel.
5/1 Bursa Malaysia is sued an Unusual Market Activity (UMA) query on the trading of Ho Hup shares after it surged 28% today on heavy volume.
5/1 Alliance Bank said CEO Datuk Bridget Lai has not resigned and the bank’s operations remained business as usual.
4/1 LCL subsidiary LCL Furniture has received a notice of withdrawal & cancellation of credit facilities from The Royal Bank of Scotland.
4/1 The FBM KLCI +2.97 points to 1275.75 at 5pm; Nestle + 78c to RM 33.88, Ho Hup +51.5c to RM 1.40, Tanjong +44 c to RM 17.28, ToyoInk +36c to Rm 2.38.
4/1 Oil price tops US$80 per barrel on Monday afternoon with the Nymex crude oil futures for February up 76 cents to US$ 80.12.
4/1 Naza Group said it has signed a MOU with General Motors Thailand to distribute Chevrolet cars and parts in Malaysia.
31/12 Last minute support on key blue chips lifted the FBM KLCI up 0.66 pts to end the year at 1,271.78 pts; the benchmark index was up 45 % in 2009.
31/12 Government to make Rm 5mil goodwill payment to 134 squatters in Penang affected by Ipoh-Padang Besar Double-Tracking Project:Transport Minister.
31/12 Ho Hup’s shareholders approved the resolutions to sell two plots of land by poll voting at the company’s EGM today.
5/1 Ringgit rose to a 7-week high against the US dollar at 3.385; Crude oil nears US$82 per barrel, while CPO futures gained RM 19 to RM 2,699.
5/1 Overnight Dow advanced 155.91 points, or 1.5 pct to 10,583.96; Crude oil futures jumped USD 2.15 to USD 81.51 a barrel.
5/1 Bursa Malaysia is sued an Unusual Market Activity (UMA) query on the trading of Ho Hup shares after it surged 28% today on heavy volume.
5/1 Alliance Bank said CEO Datuk Bridget Lai has not resigned and the bank’s operations remained business as usual.
4/1 LCL subsidiary LCL Furniture has received a notice of withdrawal & cancellation of credit facilities from The Royal Bank of Scotland.
4/1 The FBM KLCI +2.97 points to 1275.75 at 5pm; Nestle + 78c to RM 33.88, Ho Hup +51.5c to RM 1.40, Tanjong +44 c to RM 17.28, ToyoInk +36c to Rm 2.38.
4/1 Oil price tops US$80 per barrel on Monday afternoon with the Nymex crude oil futures for February up 76 cents to US$ 80.12.
4/1 Naza Group said it has signed a MOU with General Motors Thailand to distribute Chevrolet cars and parts in Malaysia.
31/12 Last minute support on key blue chips lifted the FBM KLCI up 0.66 pts to end the year at 1,271.78 pts; the benchmark index was up 45 % in 2009.
31/12 Government to make Rm 5mil goodwill payment to 134 squatters in Penang affected by Ipoh-Padang Besar Double-Tracking Project:Transport Minister.
31/12 Ho Hup’s shareholders approved the resolutions to sell two plots of land by poll voting at the company’s EGM today.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
stock to watch from Dec 28, 2009
股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價
1.沙布拉浪峰（SAPCRES） 8575 2.37 0.61 2.00 2.37 2.30 2.30 2.28
沙布拉浪峰獲11個國家石油生產分享承包商頒發至少15億令吉聯營合約，主要負責在未來3年提供海外油氣投備與建築的交通與裝置服務。
2.EP制造（EPMB） 7773 0.595 0.12 0.415 0.595 0.425 0.44 0.43
該公司最近把握的Myvi與Alza車新製造計劃，有望顯著擴大營業額，僑豐研究分別上調2010財政年營業額與凈利預測11%與42%，同時在營業額強勁、財務權於效率與經濟情況改善下，預料凈利成長高達87.2%，
3.國家能源（TENAGA） 5347 8.60 5.60 7.95 8.60 8.32 8.32 .37
短期內電力股仍維持“超越大市”評級，而國家能源預定明年初調高電費，更是電力領域的近期焦點。
4.實達（SPSETIA） 8664 4.76 2.76 3.51 4.76 3.74 3.74 3.60
分析員說，由於吉隆坡生態城市（KL Eco City）計劃的銷售動力良好，因此看好此股的業績表現，並上修此股評級至“買進”，目標價是4.20。
5.JAKS資源（JAKS） 4723 1.08 0.31 0.56 0.84 0.565 0.595 0.63
2009第一季國內對該公司產品的需求依然疲弱，可是政府的振興配套將可使建築、產業及基建行業有利。
1.沙布拉浪峰（SAPCRES） 8575 2.37 0.61 2.00 2.37 2.30 2.30 2.28
沙布拉浪峰獲11個國家石油生產分享承包商頒發至少15億令吉聯營合約，主要負責在未來3年提供海外油氣投備與建築的交通與裝置服務。
2.EP制造（EPMB） 7773 0.595 0.12 0.415 0.595 0.425 0.44 0.43
該公司最近把握的Myvi與Alza車新製造計劃，有望顯著擴大營業額，僑豐研究分別上調2010財政年營業額與凈利預測11%與42%，同時在營業額強勁、財務權於效率與經濟情況改善下，預料凈利成長高達87.2%，
3.國家能源（TENAGA） 5347 8.60 5.60 7.95 8.60 8.32 8.32 .37
短期內電力股仍維持“超越大市”評級，而國家能源預定明年初調高電費，更是電力領域的近期焦點。
4.實達（SPSETIA） 8664 4.76 2.76 3.51 4.76 3.74 3.74 3.60
分析員說，由於吉隆坡生態城市（KL Eco City）計劃的銷售動力良好，因此看好此股的業績表現，並上修此股評級至“買進”，目標價是4.20。
5.JAKS資源（JAKS） 4723 1.08 0.31 0.56 0.84 0.565 0.595 0.63
2009第一季國內對該公司產品的需求依然疲弱，可是政府的振興配套將可使建築、產業及基建行業有利。
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