Stock Market Books

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Plantation related stocks up

Thursday December 30, 2010
Plantation related stocks up
By CECILIA KOK
cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Plantation-related counters advanced yesterday, with palm oil plantation index surging 148.67 points to 15,490.52, and helped lift the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) 6.90 points higher to close at 1,524.34.

Gains registered by both big-cap and lower-liner plantation stocks were driven largely by a buoyant outlook on crude palm oil (CPO), as tight supply of the commodity amid an expected pick-up in demand as well as the prevailing poor weather conditions were expected to sustain CPO prices on the high side over the medium term.

Benchmark CPO for March 2011 delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange hit a new 33-month high at RM3,778 per tonne on Tuesday before losing some ground to settle at RM3,733 per tonne yesterday.

Most analysts believed CPO prices would likely remain firm over the next few months, with a strong possibility of reaching RM4,000 per tonne before the market could see some softening of the prices set in from the middle of next year onwards.

Plantation-related counters dominated Bursa Malaysia's gainers list throughout the day, with Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd, Tradewinds Plantations Bhd, CB Industrial Product Holdings Bhd (CBIP) and PPB Group Bhd listed among the 10 top-gaining counters at the close of trade.

Hap Seng rose 37 sen to RM6.96, while Tradewinds added 34 sen to RM3.41 and CBIP, 26 sen to RM3.95. PPB, meanwhile, was up by 22 sen to RM17.32.

Weather forecasters predicted that the La Nina effect, which could cause heavy rainfall and flooding in South-East Asia, would last through the first quarter of 2011. Such poor weather condition was expected to dampen the output of top palm oil-producing countries like Malaysia and Indonesia.

Similarly, the La Nina effect would also be upon South America, and weather forecasters were predicting a prolonged drought in the region, hence hurting their output of soybeans.

The expected cutback in the harvest of these commodities due to the prolonged rainy and dry season in different parts of the world has raised concern of tight supply. At the same time, an expected strong growth in the demand for these commodities by emerging economies, specifically big users like China and India, would likely add further pressure on the supply of commodities during the first half of next year.

Based on these factors, analysts believed commodity prices, including that of CPO, would remain firm until a potential bumper harvest could set in by the middle of 2011 and soften their prices.

On local plantation plays, most analysts suggest that small and medium-cap counters would likely provide more excitement compared with big-cap stocks that many believed were already fairly valued.

For latest Bursa Malaysia indices, charts and other information click here

MRCB-IJM Land merger called off

Published: Thursday December 30, 2010 MYT 12:22:00 PM
Updated: Thursday December 30, 2010 MYT 2:04:05 PM
MRCB-IJM Land merger called off

PETALING JAYA: Property firms IJM Land and MRCB have aborted their planned merger by way of a members' scheme of arrangement as both companies have not been able to come to an agreement.

Separate announcements by both companies were made to the stock exchange on Friday concerning the matter.

RHB Investment Bank and Newfields Advisors announced on behalf of MRCB that both companies “have not been able to reach an agreement on the definitive terms and conditions of the proposed merger”.

Accordingly, they said the proposed merger was now aborted.

Meanwhile, an IJM Land statement on Bursa Malaysia said after a series of discussions, both were not able to reach an agreement on the definitive terms of the proposed merger.


MRCB : [Stock Watch] [News]
IJMLAND : [Stock Watch] [News]

For latest Bursa Malaysia indices, charts and other information click here

Related Stories:
MRCB, IJM Land extend validity of MoU to merge
Stable outlook for IJM's RM1bil debt notes, unit merger impact unlikely
Property merger mania and what's in it for minoriy shareholders
MRCB to go big in the property sector
Analysts positive over IJM Land-MRCB merger
IJM unit wins RM460m job from Naza TTDI
More mergers and acquisitions expected next year
Stable outlook for IJM's RM1bil debt notes, unit merger impact unlikely
MRCB to go big in the property sector

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

中國調高利率的啟示

社論

中國調高利率的啟示
2010-12-28 19:06

中國人民銀行25日聖誕節當天將利率上調0.25%至2.75%,受到國際金融市場的密切關注。由於中國此舉事出突然,因此對商品市場造成震撼,國際油價 27日從26個月來新高滑落,銅價盤中刷新歷史紀錄,黃金和白銀等貴金屬震盪,而玉米、小麥和糖價也下跌。基於中國調高利率自有其背景,值得做進一步的分析;而更重要的,則是由貨幣政策的決策模式到金融市場本身的成熟度,整個事件均有值得我國金融主管當局省思之處。

此次人行宣佈加息正值聖誕節長假,其中玄機自屬不言可喻。人行之所以汲汲於調高利率,主要原因即在於中國經濟的熱度顯然正迅速升高之中,加上工業生產與工業開工率持續上升,而企業及消費者的信用需求也穩定增加,顯示經濟體系的總需求相當強勁,潛在的通膨壓力和房價十分沉重。因此,人行採取預防性的措施,以免等到物價再次上揚之後才被迫採取激烈的緊縮行動。

這套所謂“軟著陸”的策略,正是人行貨幣政策的根本理念及一貫執行方向。如果人行仍繼續維持目前的利率水準,企業及個人的信用需求必將迅速增加,如此則不但會加重通膨的壓力,使公債市場利率上揚,同時在資金的強勁需求下,銀行利率也會自然上升,屆時人行唯有以更激烈的手段來緊縮信用。

由於此次利率風波,我們可以得到以下的啟示。第一,國家銀行貨幣政策的運作,必須具有高度的前瞻性。以中國的情況為例,如果僅由目前消費物價仍維持年增率3.5%的水準來觀察,表面上看不出中國經濟正面臨嚴峻通膨的威脅,但人行毅然決定調高利率,至少基於兩點原因。首先,如今景氣既已明確復甦,則利率自然應恢復到正常水準,且人行也暗示明年首次季將可能再加息。其次,則如前所述,為了事先預防景氣過熱而使通膨加速惡化;放眼其他國家,包括我國在內,如果遇到此種情況,均不太可能採取“預警式”的緊縮措施,而會等到消費者物價已然明顯上升之後,才趕緊展開補救行動,然而痛苦卻已經發生。事先防範與事後補救,其間之差距實不可以道里計。對此國行自應深自檢討,以提昇決策水平。

第二,則是國行應抱持獨立超然的立場,以及堅持此一立場的勇氣。像人行既然已判斷確有調高利率之必要,則即使會引發市場震盪,則仍應以整體經濟情勢為考量基準,進行獨立的判斷與決策。至於其他單位,則根本沒有置喙的餘地。在利率調高之後,整個國際金融市場也普遍認同。反觀其他國家,中央銀行在進行貨幣政策的決策時,或受財政部的管轄,或受中央的影響;至於我國,則除了行政部門以外,國會還要介入,而輿論界對國行的施政也指指點點。這方面固然是因為政府體制的設計不當,另一方面則是由於國行須為本身建立更強的權威與信譽。因此為貫徹國行的獨立性,必須在制度上重新調整國行的位階,以及貨幣政策的決策模式,使國行在財務及人事上均能取得獨立的地位,而減少外來的干擾。

第三,則是一個成熟且理性的金融市場,本身即有能力消化掉各種外來的干擾因素。早在今年初,隨著中國景氣的好轉,市場利率即已逐步走高,10月底人行首次調高利率,儘管市場造成壓力,但市場並不意外,甚至已然預測半年內利率還會再調,行情也能夠在短暫的波動後隨即恢復平穩。究其原因,在於中國金融市場已經成熟,無論是外匯、股票或債券市場的投資人,普通均能依據經濟的客觀情勢,對政府的貨幣政策以及市場可能的變動方向做理性的預期;加上資訊充份公開,以及相關法令完備,自然難有投機炒作的機會,市場也得以長期維持穩定。
星洲日報/社論‧2010.12.28

金融遊戲是騙局?

更新: December 28, 2010 23:33

金融遊戲是騙局?:第二篇
中國數學天才一條公式
把全球銀行業推向懸崖

次貸風暴爆發前,美國華爾街運作上億美元交易的銀行家,無不對李祥林這位中國數學天才稱譽,甚至認為他某日會得到諾貝爾獎的眷顧。

因為他發明的一個數學公式,讓2001年規模只達9200萬美元(約2億9000萬令吉)的全球金融洐生品市場,6年內增長67萬倍到2007年的62兆美元(約195兆令吉)。

但金融市場出乎意料之外改變,曾繁榮無比的金融衍生品市場崩潰,把全球銀行推向懸崖邊緣,全球更陷入自二戰以來最大的經濟衰退。

李祥林也被同樣一群銀行家視為眾矢之的,孰不知成敗皆因這一條公式。


早自1980年代中期開始,美國華爾街就依賴金融工程精英創造各種新的獲利途徑。

但儘管金融市場蓬勃發展,數以兆計的資金一直不敢貿然進入投資市場,最重要原因在于金融業一直無法精確簡單預測投資對象的風險。

李祥林的公式,卻以一種近乎簡單的方式解決這個問題。

追溯至2000年,37歲的摩根大通僱員李祥林著迷于一種叫做“破碎的心”(Brokenheart)統計學現象,意即當一對伴侶其中一人去世,未來幾年另位伴侶去世的可能性就會大增。

他關注的是一個金融難題,如幾家看起來毫不相關的企業,若其中一家倒閉,剩下的公司業績會否受影響?倒閉的可能性又有多大?

從投資角度來看,能否確定這點至關重要,因為這能非常準確預測不同投資對象的投資效應,從而精確知道對某家企業是否值得投資、和投資多少錢。

量化投資對象互影響

情況就像你很容易知道果農今天摘下多少斤蘋果,卻很難預測未來一週會有多少斤蘋果因為賣不出去而爛掉。

李祥林2000年在著名金融雜誌《固定收益》發表一篇名為《論違約相關性:相依函數方法》論文,用極簡單數學方法,量化不同投資對象之間的相互影響,及每位投資對象或存在不同風險。

他用一個叫“信用違約掉期”(CDS)的參數,推導每位投資對象可能潛在的風險。

這種參數在市場是公開的,就是投資者為了保證自己能按期取得投資回酬而買的保險,這也是金融衍生品最主要的部分。

美國國際集團(AIG)、房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac),一直是這個市場最大的保險提供商。

這些保險的購買者包括雷曼兄弟、美林、高盛集團、摩根士丹利等金融投資機構。

李祥林的公式讓金融機構能大膽出售各種新型證券和金融衍生品,將金融市場擴張至幾乎不可思議的水平;正因如此,當風暴來襲時殺傷力更大!

學術背景進軍華爾街

這個充滿爭議的數學公式創始人李祥林,1960年代在中國江蘇連雲港出生,成績優異,考獲南開大學的經濟學碩士學位后到美國留學,獲得魁北克拉瓦爾大學的MBA學位。

此后他繼續深造,先后獲得加拿大滑鐵盧大學的精算學碩士學位和統計學博士學位。

1997年他在加拿大帝國商業銀行開始金融職業生涯,后來就職于巴克萊資本,並在2004年負責重建數量分析小組。

李祥林的學術背景,在華爾街的精英中顯得非常典型。

由于從事學術研究的收入遠不如華爾街投資銀行和對沖基金給出的薪水高,所以1980年代開始,大量數理背景的高級人才進入華爾街,從事金融衍生工具的創造、定價和套利。

如今李祥林已回到中國,並是中金的總風險長。

借李祥林公式
大家齊撈金

當債券投資者、華爾街的銀行、評級機構到監管機構,幾乎每一個人都在使用李祥林的公式,並幫人們賺到大錢時,任何對此公式的局限警告都被忽視。

幾率極小危機重大

2005年秋天,李祥林曾在《華爾街日報》指出,很少人真正理解這一條公式的核心。

最危險的部分是,人們相信模型推算出的所有數據。

他非常清楚公式的致命處,因為公式需要使用某個特定投資對象的保險價作為最主要參數,重要的是為保障投資收益設立保險的做法,只有10幾年曆史。

在這10幾年里,全球特別是美國經濟一直處于上漲趨勢,換言之,李祥林公式無法預見發生幾率很低,但破壞力驚人的重大危機,如房地產價格集體大幅下滑。

不幸的是,2007年下半年首先在美國出現的次貸危機正是這類幾率極小的重大危機。

但在現實金融世界中,太多金融分析人士只看到眼前毫無生命的數字,忘卻這些數字代表的有形和真實的現實,沒有思考這些數據究竟是否有實際意義。

財金術語

破碎的心

“破碎的心”(Brokenheart)換為統計術語,便是“聯結”和“相關”的關係。

精算師將這種關係帶入數學模型,準確計算人壽保險和夫妻聯合人壽年金(Joint Annuities)的保費。

在破碎的心統計學現象中,當一對伴侶其中一人去世,未來幾年另位伴侶去世的可能性就會大增。

2011年展望轉型躍進 獲利.大選.寬鬆政策 3E勢力 明年推升馬股勢頭

更新: December 28, 2010 23:34

2011年展望轉型躍進
獲利.大選.寬鬆政策
3E勢力 明年推升馬股勢頭

報導:邱佩勛

(吉隆坡28日訊)2010年剩下最后三天,券商看好馬股市在“3E”,即企業獲利(Earnings)、大選(Election)和海外寬鬆政策(Easing)的支撐下,明年繼續綻光芒!

僑豐投資研究指出,在3大“E”勢力尤其外來游資的籠罩下,銀行與博彩領域將是最大受惠方!

該行看好,明年企業獲利將保持成長動力,預計旗下有研究的富馬隆綜指成分股淨利,有望成長16%。

其次,明年或提早舉行全國大選的傳言言之鑿鑿,該行相信,來自基建發展計劃的消息將持續,使市場繼續期待新合約的頒發。

日本承諾注資600億美元(1860億令吉)救經濟,以及美國6000億美元(1兆8600億令吉)的第二輪量化寬鬆政策(QE2)等寬鬆政策,造成全球游資四溢,是第三個利好股市的“E”。

基于發達國家的利率繼續持低,該行相信,這筆游資將繼續主導全球股市走高。

高流動股票成目標

“我們看好那些本質擁有高流動性的本地股票,將成為部分游資的目標。”

興業證券研究也指出,全球經濟復甦料比預期來得更持續,進而反映在企業持續的獲利成長上,因此馬股明年仍有走高空間。

該行預測,明年企業獲利將成長16.3%,繼續為股東創造新價值。

另一方面,僑豐投資研究認為,來自海外游資潮的外資,將瞄準那些具有高交投量且市值龐大的股項,以確保在游資乾涸時得以套現。

“為此,這股熱錢的受惠者將是銀行和博彩股項。”

馬股引擎1:企業獲利(Earnings)

銀行消費房產盈利看高

僑豐投資研究看好具獲利素質的領域有:

◆銀行

我國明年經濟料成長5.8%,銀行領域有此后盾,預計將持續錄得9%的貸款成長。

同時,股市看漲以及各項經濟轉型執行方案工程的融資需求,將帶動銀行的非利息收入成長。

預期明年下半年升息,也將看到淨利息賺幅揚升。

部分銀行或提高派息比重,作為資本管理的努力之一。

綜合這些因素,看好銀行明年將繼續錄得強勁獲利。

◆消費(包括保健與航空)

政府宣佈的基建發展計劃繼續刺激明年經濟穩健成長,預計明年首半年的消費者意願將高漲。

隨意開銷料增加,這對消費零售、保健和航空股項而言是好事。

許多消費食品類別的公司正擴大產能或擴展區域市場,明年首半年獲利成長可期。

◆房地產

早前房地產計劃推介因為2008/2009年的衰退而展延,基于未進賬銷量逐漸減少,明年房產業獲利成長料黯淡無光。

但不能否認,今年房產實際價格已明顯攀升,這也造就近期推介的高檔房產計劃。

相信此類房產將延續至明年首半年,獲利素質料將強勁,但將有少數下行風險,尤其專注高檔房產的發展商。

馬股引擎2:大選風(Election)

油氣業也來分一杯羹

“大選要到了”的消息,將是這波投資主題的關鍵,迄今已看到當局發出不少合約,除了向來與大選息息相關的建築與房地產領域,這次石油與天然氣也將分一杯羹。

◆建築

無疑,明年將宣佈更多建築工程;目前仍等待吉隆坡地鐵、輕快鐵合約的宣佈。

其他可能宣佈的包括彭亨雪蘭莪跨州生水輸送計劃、1000兆瓦發電廠計劃、100層樓的獨立文物大廈(Warisan Merdeka)等合約。

◆房產

新街場舊飛機場、雙溪毛糯地段、吉隆坡國際金融中心和甘榜峇汝皆具發展潛能,政聯房地產業者或在未來2至3年,接手並參與這些計劃的發展。

相信此類利好將促使投資者專注在特定房產股。近期房產業者的併購也與這項投資主題一致。

◆油氣

油氣業在大馬經濟扮演越來越高的多重角色,預計新岸外合約的頒發將捎來一些“財富效應”並流入經濟體系。

基于大部分上市的油氣業者為服務供應商,相信明年上半年將是令人興奮的時刻。

馬股引擎3:熱錢(Easing)

游資流入盯上大資本股

全球市場充斥的游資將流入大馬,大型資本股將是這些資金目標。

富馬隆綜指成分股大部分來自銀行、種植、電訊及博彩領域,僑豐投資研究對銀行及博彩領域給予“增持”建議,種植及電訊業則獲“中立”建議。

◆銀行

富馬隆綜指超過35%的市值來自銀行股,銀行股料將吸納大部分外資,尤其那些大型、交易更具流動性的股項如聯昌集團(CIMB,1023,主要板金融)和馬銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主要板金融)。

◆博彩

博彩股佔富馬隆綜指逾9%的市值,主要由重量級股項兼外資“達令”股雲頂(GENTING,3182,主要板貿易)所主導。游資流入將有利此領域。

富馬隆綜指
合理水平1648點

繼富馬隆綜指今年最高攀升250點或超過19%后,僑豐投資研究看好指數明年再寫新高,達1648點的合理水平。

該行該,距離上述合理水平約有10%揚升空間,並維持馬股“增持”評級。

富馬隆綜指在11月9日以1526.53點改寫新高。

興業證券研究早前指出,外資增持新興市場股票,加上大選年兩大利好,指數明年底有望攀至1700點。

僑豐投資研究指出,富馬隆綜指繼2008及2009年走跌后,成分股今年淨利成長強力反彈,估計今年將成長26%。

該行也指出,企業第四季財報在明年2月出爐時,有可能出現財測上修潮。

該行維持第三季業績下修多于上修的預測,但相信在企業獲利改善的帶動下,將有更多企業在發佈第四季或首季財報后,獲券商上修財測。

第四季或首季財報季節分別落在明年2月及5月。

閉市時,富馬隆綜指報1517.44點,起5.72點,交投8億2288萬900股。

Monday, December 27, 2010

2011年展望轉型躍進 原料價料微揚.大型工程帶動 大馬年需50億鋼鐵

更新: December 27, 2010 17:57

2011年展望轉型躍進
原料價料微揚.大型工程帶動
大馬年需50億鋼鐵

報導:陳愛玲

(吉隆坡27日訊)原料價格上漲使鋼鐵價將在明年首季繼續走高,預計在許多大型工程動工后,估計國內每年需要50億令吉或250萬公噸的鋼鐵建材。

僑豐投資研究分析員黃顯源告訴《中國報》,明年許多大型工程如地鐵延長線和100層樓獨立遺產摩天樓等計劃將開跑,將有助支撐本地鋼鐵需求。

他指出,由于業界跟隨國際價格交易,除非全球經濟持續增長,否則對維持鋼鐵和相關原料價格走勢助益不大。

原料價不重返頂峰

黃顯源認為,這些大型計劃開始動工后,估計每年需要50億令吉或250萬公噸的鋼鐵建材。

“在最好的情況下,每年的鋼鐵需求甚至可達500至600萬公噸,預計將佔本地鋼鐵需求的20%,不過,這一切得胥視這些工程何時開跑。”

歐美主要生產商減產,作為主要建材的鋼鐵,其原料如礦石和廢鐵價格在明年首季將繼續走揚,惟券商認為增幅空間不大,不會回到今年5月時的頂峰水平。

僑豐投資研究分析員黃顯源告訴《中國報》,由于冬天減產,促使廢鐵和礦石價格揚升,即使目前價格回彈揚升,但市場依然淡靜,未來6個月兩者價格將窄幅波動。

“隨著天氣回暖,加上生產者因應高價格增加產出,在供應恢復后,相信價格將進入另一輪盤整。”

興業證券研究分析員指出,由于印度供應減少,促使2011年首季的礦石指標價格揚升7至8%。

“不過,中國隨時採取貨幣緊縮和打房措施,將進一步削弱鋼鐵和相關原料需求,導致成本帶動型增長(cost push factor),恐怕將損害本地業者獲利。”

對于鋼鐵領域面臨的種種不確定因素,興業證券給予“中立”評級,報告指出,全球依然以中國唯首是瞻,中國政府在明年對鋼鐵領域實施的重整措施,將是牽動鋼鐵價格的最大關鍵。

明年全球鋼鐵價平均漲10%

據《華爾街日報》早前報導指出,英國鋼鐵行業諮詢機構MEPS國際預測,明年全球鋼鐵價格將平均上漲10%。

根據“彭博社”數據顯示,在今年5月的高峰時期,礦石現貨每公噸報價187美元(約578令吉),廢鐵價格則達480美元(約1484令吉)。

儘管在今年7月間,兩者價格走滑,礦石價格一度低于120美元,廢鐵價格跌至350美元。

不過,自9月份起,價格開始回彈,截至今年11月份,礦石現貨每公噸價格回落至175美元水平(約541令吉),廢鐵價格則達430至440美元(約1330至1360令吉)。

Stock to watch

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價
1.吉朗(ZELAN) 2283 0.825 0.445 0.545 0.61 0.53 0.555 0.54
隨著經濟出現復蘇跡象,該公司准備取得新的工程及建築合約,從而轉虧為盈。

2.楊忠禮電子(YTLE) 0009 1.78 0.665 1.26 1.38 1.28 1.28 1.27
2010財年收入增加20.6%,主要由於頻譜分享協議帶來收費收入,盈利提高11.3%,因為收入增加及營運開支減少。

3.綜合橡膠(IRCB) 2127 1.87 0.225 0.25 0.305 0.26 0.255 0.26
2010財年收入增加7.8%,由於制造部門的銷售向好,加上銷售成本減少,該公司轉虧回盈,報盈利524萬3000令吉。

4.利得股份(LATEXX) 7064 4.95 2.37 2.65 3.24 2.74 2.67 2.59
2010上半年收入跳升80.7%盈利翻倍至4226萬6000令吉,因為近期產能擴大,調整生產線,積極進行經銷及整體成本減低。

5.成功集團(BJCORP) 3395 1.87 0.925 1.05 1.10 1.06 1.05 1.05
2011第一季收入增加8%,主要因消費營銷及分銷業務帶來收入提高,由於投資相關收入增加,分享聯號盈利及脫售子公司獲得收益,盈利因而翻2倍。

Thursday, December 23, 2010

惠譽下調葡萄牙主權信用評級

即時新聞更新: December 24, 2010 10:24

惠譽下調葡萄牙主權信用評級
國際三大評級公司之一的惠譽公司23日宣布,鋻於葡萄牙削減財政赤字的速度放緩、在國際市場融資難度增加,決定下調葡萄牙的主權信用評級。

惠譽將葡萄牙的長期外幣和本幣債務評級下調一檔,從「AA-」降至「A+」,並將前景展望評為負面。

惠譽警告,如果葡萄牙無法完成控制2011年預算赤字和結構性赤字的目標,市場對葡萄牙公共財政中期可持續性的信心將受到侵蝕,其未來評級也會受到影響。

在惠譽下調評級前,另兩大評級公司標準普爾和穆迪已下調或警告將下調葡萄牙信用評級。目前,惠譽和穆迪對葡萄牙的主權債務評級均為A+,標準普爾對葡萄牙的信用評級為A-。

葡萄牙財政部當日對惠譽眼下宣布下調評級表示「很難理解」,並指出葡政府開源節流削減財政赤字的措施正在發揮作用。

根據葡萄牙通過的2011年財政預算,葡政府將把當年預算赤字佔國內生產總值的比例降至4.6%,並計劃在2012年把這比例進一步降至3%。不過,惠譽認為葡萄牙政府實現該目標具有難度。

由於此前市場人士普遍預期評級公司將下調對葡萄牙的評級,惠譽下調葡評級後市場反應相對平靜。不過,該消息還是加重了投資者對歐元區債務問題的擔憂。

自歐元區爆發債務危機以來,希臘、愛爾蘭兩國政府先後申請國際救助,投資者對歐元區經濟復蘇信心受損。

馬股獲8利好支撐 富馬隆綜指1650點可期

更新: December 24, 2010 01:44

馬股獲8利好支撐
富馬隆綜指1650點可期
(吉隆坡23日訊)馬股市有8大利好支撐,包括企業下財年獲利料加速成長15.8%,富馬隆綜指明年最高可攀升至1650點!

此外,大馬成為中國合格境內機構投資者(QDII)計劃一員,以及獲富時(FTSE)重新分類為先進新興市場,預計將吸引外資繼續湧入馬股。

MIDF Amanah投資銀行研究主管祖基菲韓沙指出,富馬隆綜指在8大短期因素催化下,明年有望攀至1650點,最低可維持在1475點水平。

“2011財年的企業整體獲利料在銀行、種植與建築業者的帶領下,加速成長15.8%,比較本財年成長率為14%。”

他今日在2011年經濟與股市展望的媒體匯報會上,如此表示;列席者包括MIDF Amanah投資銀行總執行長拿督梅甘希山,以及研究部副總裁安東尼。

晉先進新興市場

祖基菲韓沙指出,海外的投資資格肯定,料將在明年帶動外資湧入馬股。

“我國早前獲中國認可,明年開始成為中國合格境內機構投資者計劃一員,這意味中國大型機構投資者如國有投資公司,將可投資在大馬。”

迄今,只有11國家獲得QDII資格,我國是第四個亞洲國家。

我國從明年6月起,將是富時旗下“先進新興市場”一員,他看好,這將吸引追蹤富時指數的海外基金入駐大馬。

另外,祖基菲韓沙指出,明年料出現更多企業併購案,以及更多大型首發股上市,皆有助保持馬股投資氣圍。

他說,馬石油旗下子子公司馬重船舶工程(MHB,5186,主要板貿易)與馬石油化工(PCHEM,5183,主要板工業),在今年陸續掛牌馬股,已成功吸引外資購興。

外資偏愛國債

大馬雖不乏外資,但大部分外資仍偏好投資在大馬政府債券,以致馬股的外資水平無顯著改善。

截至今年9月,馬股外資持股仍處于21.7%的低水平。

祖基菲韓沙指出,根據區域外資流入,我國不乏資金流入,只是大部資金選擇投資在國債。

他認為,即使現有外資轉至股市,也未在數據上反映出來。

近10年來,馬股最高的外資持股率是在2007年寫下,當時達26.2%。

今年至12月5日,泰國、印尼、菲律賓、台灣和韓國的總外資流入達579億3200萬美元(1824.8億令吉)。

此外,富馬隆綜指明年本益比料最高達18倍,最低為16倍,估值相對較高。

但祖基菲韓沙認為,由于指數成份股有異,因此不能與區域股市相提並論。

他說,除了新加坡股市,大部分區域股市沒有種植類股,且馬股比區域多了博彩股項。

“再者,富馬隆綜指走勢也受銀行股走勢所支配。這些差異,使隆綜指估值難以與區域指數比較。”

油價若破百
恐再掀衰退

國際油價徘徊在每桶90美元(282令吉),MIDF Amanah投銀認為,油價與股市之間的相互關係很高,一旦油價衝破100美元(313令吉),可能將在全球股市掀起恐慌因素(fear factor)!

英國維珍集團創辦人理察布蘭森爵士早前甚至預測,油價將飆至200美元(626令吉)!該集團旗下有英國維珍大西洋航空公司。

MIDF Amanah投銀預測,明年平均油價將介于每桶90至95美元(282至298令吉)。

祖基菲韓沙指出,過去的股市與油價走勢,顯示當油價走高並超過100美元關卡時,股市將走低,兩者呈負面關係。

一旦油價破百,他不排除,國際投資基金將脫售非美元資產,重投美元資產懷抱的可能,屆時全球可能陷入另一波經濟衰退。

這是因為美元是受國際認可的國際本位貨幣,一般是投資者眼中的“安全貨幣”。

祖基菲韓沙指出,即使國際油價飆至100美元,相信是因投機活動所炒高,並非供需基本面所造成。

“但我不認為,國際油價將失控。”

油價飆升將推高通脹率,進而導致貨幣貶值,對石油進口國如日本打擊最大。

貨幣戰爭導火線海灣國

儘管市場將貨幣戰爭的矛頭指向中國,但安東尼認為,許多國家央行為了貿易理由而干預貨幣走勢,例如日本。

但他說,海灣國家央行也有出手干預貨幣,且程度不亞于亞洲,因此即使發生貨幣戰,導火線或很大程度來自海灣國家。

另外,MIDF Amanah投銀預期,我國明年經濟將成長5.3%,主要因為更低的按年比較基礎、振興配套效應漸退,以及數個主要出口市場的經濟停滯不前。

基于外圍經濟欠動力、工業國家完成庫存補充,以及部分原產品價格走低等因素,明年出口成長率料從今年的17.2%(估計),放緩至9%。

不過,原棕油價格將繼續處于升勢,明年原棕油價格每公噸料達3000令吉。

安東尼預測,明年通脹率料揚至2.5%,令吉兌美元匯率料達3,但到了2012年,有望升值至2.95。

游資充裕增幅低
高家債可管理

本地游資充裕,加上國家銀行料出手干預,安東尼認為,我國高家債或沒有想像般嚴重。

我國企業偏好長期融資,加上信用卡與個人貸款高企,是我國家庭負債(簡稱家債)高企的元兇。

我國家債佔國內生產總值的比重,從1997年的39%,激增至去年的77%。

儘管如此,安東尼認為,本地游資仍充裕,負債額僅按年增9.8%,因此高家債仍不是太大的隱憂。

“本地銀行十分審慎,但相信國行會提高個人貸款及信用卡發出的嚴謹度,以防患未然。”

安東尼指出,本地企業日趨偏愛透過資本市場來獲取長期融資,以及金融機構亦轉向低信貸風險的“高額”、“低價值”家庭貸款等,皆是更高家債的導因。

他指出,少數貸款大企業違約所造成的龐大潛在損失,也是高家債的催化劑。

家債方面,我國有6.3%貸款來自信用卡,8.9%來自個人貸款。

房屋貸款比重最高達55%,但超過80%房貸的利率屬于不同的浮動水平,這也使這些負債者在面對任何升息決定時,顯得更脆弱。

汽車貸款則佔家債約23%。

馬股8大短期利好

1. 明年國內生產總值料成長超過5%

2. 企業2011財年獲利料成長15.8%

3. 更多企業併購案

4. 更多大型首發股

5. 預期流入的外資將增加本地游資

6. 原油與原產品價格上漲

7. 經濟轉型執行方案旗下更多重資本工程

8. 大選因素

Stock to watch

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.美德再也(MITRA) 9571 1.36 0.56 1.18 1.28 1.19 1.19 1.18
該公司獲頒總值約1400萬令吉,位於布城的建築合約。

2.宇琦科技(UCHITEC) 7100 1.54 1.17 1.31 1.45 1.32 1.32 1.32
2009年凈賺2695萬3000令吉,2010年首9個月凈賺3999萬8000令吉。

3.錦記鋼鐵(KINSTEL) 5060 1.18 0.77 0.80 1.07 0.83 0.825 0.90
2009年凈賺1826萬4000令吉,2010年上半年凈賺3072萬9000令吉。

4.林木生集團(LBS) 5789 0.85 0.45 0.575 0.64 0.585 0.575 0.595
該公司在2009年凈虧1680萬5000令吉,2010年上半年轉虧為盈,凈賺117萬令吉。

5.金控股(KYM) 8362 3.06 0.60 2.71 3.06 2.95 2.90 2.49
金控股將負責發展及宣傳巴眼拿督重工業園,該公司在本月13日宣佈取得總值逾58萬5911令吉的合約,為華麗大馬制造私人有限公司提供收購土地和興建碼頭方面的諮詢服務。

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

430億捷運工程發酵 建築業力衝上軌

更新: December 21, 2010 17:48

430億捷運工程發酵
建築業力衝上軌

(吉隆坡21日訊)國內重大計劃下的大型項目陸續開跑,總值逾367億令吉的鐵路工程如火如荼展開,2011年建築領域好景料力衝上軌。

聯昌證券研究分析師莎麗占在報javascript:void(0)告中指出,政府經濟轉型執行方案下,數項工程啟動將刺激領域發展。

她指出,第十大馬計劃下總值分別逾360億令吉和70億令吉的地鐵(MRT)及輕快鐵(LRT),亦重新上軌道,並陸續頒發。

“以明年7月進行動土儀式的計劃來看,下一個地鐵合約料將在明年首季頒發,緊接在后的就是總值約15億令吉的第二個輕快鐵合約。”

莎麗占認為,在政府致力發展和改善公共交通的大前提下,建築公司將趁大勢搭上發展的“高速鐵道”,前景備受看俏。

“政府尚有數項合約還在競標階段,相信未來6至9個月內,建築領域將好消息連連。”

其中一項可能刺激領域發展的潛在項目,就是發展總值高達100億至120億令吉的高鐵項目。

高鐵或錦上添花

惟她亦認為,總值360億令吉的地鐵計劃,成本已超越建造布城的200億令吉、吉隆坡國際機場(KLIA)的100億令吉,及北部雙軌鐵道125億令吉的計劃,或遭在野黨質疑工程所需成本。

此外,莎麗占亦相信,由于涉及工程龐大,當局在收購地鐵隧道土地時,或耗費更長時間,甚至因此需要修改土地法令,方能解決問題。

儘管如此,這僅是發展的部分問題,聯昌證券研究認為,來年建築業將在大型計劃帶動下一片繁榮。

Friday, December 17, 2010

外資增持遇上大選年 馬股明年底挑戰1700點

更新: December 17, 2010 22:03

外資增持遇上大選年
馬股明年底挑戰1700點

報導:李玉萍

外資加上大選及一眾利好圍繞,馬股料迎來美好的明年,富馬隆綜指更上看1700點。
(吉隆坡17日訊)我國補選再添一宗,分析界認為,全國大選在即,加上外資增持新興市場股票,看好富馬隆綜指在今年衝上歷史新高后,明年底再上看1700點!

富馬隆綜指在11月9日以1526.53點改寫新高,券商預計,在外資增持新興市場股票和“大選年”兩大利好襯托下,指數明年底有望攀至1700點!

聯昌證券研究和興業證券研究皆把富馬隆綜指明年底的目標水平,上修至1700點大關,先前各自預測1610點和1640點。

聯昌證券研究主管黃大任指出,對馬股而言,明年無疑又是好年,特別是外資如今偏離常軌,反而積極在新興市場尋求更高回酬。

“但外資對馬股的青睞始終不足,持股總值不但比經濟危機前少30%,更在08年全國大選后大量減持。”

他透過分析報告說,大馬交易所(BURSA,1818,主要板金融)資料也證實,外資目前在馬股的持股權為22%,遠低于危機前的27%。

“幸虧外資對馬股的興趣從下半年開始回揚,紛紛探訪國內企業並到訪大馬依斯干達,除了覺得馬股素質改善和國內各項轉型計劃有看頭,最重要是知道過去已嚴重忽略馬股。”

外資購興回揚

黃大任認為,只要外資對馬股的投資興趣重返過往的平衡比重,必定帶來顯著效益,外資熟悉的股項也將成大贏家。

“10月15日出爐的2011年財政預算案,顯然是為大選鋪路的感覺美好因素,但問題在于這是專為需在明年7月前舉行的砂拉越州選,還是2013年6月前全國大選而設?”

他補充,無論州選或全國大選,選前漲潮往往利及馬股走勢,富馬隆綜指通常在大選前的12個月上漲5%,然后更激增17%,但巫統改選漲潮更大,通常選前1年激增30%,選后12個月內卻跌7%。

“我們預計,更多利好措施將在明年湧現,任何負面政策都先‘按兵不動’。”

併購新法改善馬股素質

隨著2010年企業併購法生效,券商認為,馬股常見的“買在謠言時、賣在事實后”(buy on rumor,sell on fact)現象可減少,長期提高馬股可信度,繼而改善整體素質。

僑豐投資研究主管吳保雲指出,證券監督委員會發佈的新例,其中值得注意的莫過于所有公司包括外資和產業投資信托皆需遵從,宣佈潛在收購獻議需更透明。

“在新例下,當股價異常波動時,潛在獻購方或被獻購方須報備潛在的併購案,若他們否認併購傳聞,潛在獻購方不得在6個月內提出收購獻議。”

他透露,外資機構投資者對國內企業,往往先否認傳聞,最終卻證實確有此事的盛行作法見慣不怪。

他認為,證監會新例有助減少這種“買在謠言時、賣在事實后”的現象,除了有助提高市場透明度,更多投資者將備受鼓勵增加參與度,但長期才能顯現效益。

重返1500點不果

美國經濟數據好壞參半,隔夜美股得以收高,區域股市卻跌多起少,馬股雖奮力上揚,富馬隆綜指苦苦翻越1500點不果,閉市只收在1499.16點,升2.36點,11億3933萬1400股易手。

繼昨天失守1500關卡后,富馬隆綜指今天開低走高,微滑0.28點以1497.24點迎市,然后迅速扭轉頹勢,更數度重返1500點以上。

休市時,富馬隆綜指掛1499.16點,揚1.64點,交投達5億8325萬6200股。

興業證券研究技術分析報告指出,隨著富馬隆綜指跌破10日移動平均線的1507點和1500點心理大關,短期交易情緒料繼續趨向負面。

“再者,區域股市利空不斷,加上年終長假氣氛濃郁,相信投資者不願持貨過多。”

報告說,若富馬隆綜指跌破1450點,將觸發更沉重賣壓。

數利好拱照

經濟轉型執行方案(ETP)合約陸續發放、企業併購活動熱絡、政聯企業更積極重組,都有助強化馬股投資情緒,為表現更美好的明年鋪路。

興業證券研究主管林志成說,主要國家的經濟振興配套效益開始式微,部分先進國又陷入債務危機,擁有更佳成長前景的新興經濟體近期吸引大量短期資金流入。

他發佈分析報告指出,游資驅動的漲勢往往難持久,短期波動在所難免,但馬股明年繼續走高的空間猶在。

“全球經濟雙重衰退風險消失,國內經濟成長展望看俏,因而料帶動企業盈利成長16.3%,繼續為投資者創造價值,所以富馬隆綜指明年底站上1700點目標可期。”

他認為,國內對股市的其他利好尚有陸續發放的經濟轉型執行方案合約、砂州州選或全國大選、更多併購活動和政企加速重組。

“建築和房地產是短期可專注的領域,銀行、石油與天然氣、木材、博彩和電訊領域一般也獲看好。”

2011年潛在風險

雙重衰退

我國經濟出現雙重衰退的風險微乎其微,但西方先進國的雙重衰退風險猶在,特別是歐洲和美國遭遇的幾率高達30%。

儘管股市似乎能與雙重衰退的風險完全脫鉤(decouple),但若美股再像08年般陷困,股市或難以倖免。

政治

今年來的政治吵雜聲雖已減少,但若政府宣佈舉行全國大選必再加劇。

砂州州選需在2011年7月前舉行,全國大選則是2013年次季前。

08年3月全國大選后,我國共展開13場補選,其中反對黨贏了8場。

執行

我國向來著稱于推介強穩企劃和積極政策,偏偏也因差勁的執行力和落實技巧聞名。

關于經濟轉型執行方案反覆提出的問題,莫過于當局言出必行的能力,但如今各項轉型計劃逐步推出有助加強落實,關鍵績效指標也獲緊密監督。

企業盈利

企業盈利的預期和確實數據,是鑑定股市走向的非常重要因素,但分析員的預期或走在基本面前頭。

過去4個季度,達致預期表現的公司數量,幾乎與表現讓人失望的公司數量相同,與09年大部份企業獲得卓越表現的現象大相逕庭。

不過,股市每股盈利乃處于上檔趨勢,銀行和博彩領域的大型股表現顯著跑贏大市,提振整體市場盈利走高。

海外基金流向

自08年3月大選后,外資長期來淨賣出馬股,當09年環球股市反彈時,以及今下半年新興市場吸引購興才轉為淨買家。

若這趨勢逆轉將衝擊馬股,惟我國龐大的公積金有助緩和這股賣壓;再者,外資目前在馬股的持股仍處于低靡水平。

動盪走勢或持續

動盪走勢料成為2011年的股市特點之一,畢竟源自歐洲、美國或中國的負面消息,將震盪環球股市。

只要主要股市沒有劇挫影響基本面惡化,任何賣壓可被視為買進的機會。

■資料來源:聯昌證券研究

愛爾蘭信貸評級調降 美股漲跌不一

更新: December 18, 2010 10:42

愛爾蘭信貸評級調降
美股漲跌不一
(紐約17日綜合電)在週四美股創兩年新高之后,週五美國股市開盤漲跌不一。愛爾蘭信貸評級被調降令投資者感到擔心。

美東時間週五上午9時40分(大馬時間晚上10時40分),道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌15.14點,報11,484.11點,跌幅0.13%;納斯達克綜合指數上漲5.66點,報2,642.97點,漲幅0.21%;標準普爾500指數下跌0.55點,報1,242.32點,跌幅0.04%。

投資機構Jefferies & Co首席市場策略師霍甘表示,“很不幸,歐洲主權債務危機仍然是我們所處環境的一部分,美元匯率小幅走強,商品期貨價格走高,美國股市受到了一點打擊。”

歐洲股市受衝擊

穆迪投資者服務將愛爾蘭評級調降了5個等級,從Aa2調降至Baa1。歐洲股市受到賣盤衝擊。肖指出,雖然市場對此早有預期,但影響還是存在的,邊緣國家政府國債利差有所擴大。他表示,“美股開盤時應該能夠感受到這一衝擊。”

在經歷數周激烈辯論后,美國眾議院在週四午夜前勉強通過了延長布什減稅政策兩年的提案。該議案已經獲得參議院批准。分析師表示,這一事件基本上符合市場預期,因此對市場影響不會很大。

個股方面,阿斯利康股價大幅下跌。美國食品和藥物管理局要求阿斯利康提供更多有關血液稀釋藥物Brilinta臨床試驗的細節,這意味該藥物的上市批准將被推遲至少6個月。

Thursday, December 16, 2010

脱售澳洲资产 马化国际先跌后起

脱售澳洲资产 马化国际先跌后起
2010/12/16 5:41:02 PM
●南洋商报

(吉隆坡16日讯)马化国际(Mulpha,3905,主板贸服股)以总值1亿888万8000澳元(3亿2700万令吉)的代价,脱售澳洲一间酒店业务与资产。

马化国际向大马交易所报备指出,马化酒店(MHPL)和马化澳洲(MAL)今日与Success City(SCPL)签署一项有条件脱售业务合约和脱售土地合约,以脱售墨尔本机场希尔顿酒店予后者。

马化国际表示,该集团是于2004年6月收购该酒店,投资成本为4000万澳元(1亿2000万令吉),而这项脱售活动将促使集团实现产业增值的获利。

集团将在脱售酒店所取得的资金用作偿还贷款,料总贷款将从截至去年12月31日的15亿1329万令吉,减至11亿8629万令吉。

同时,在这项脱售活动中,马化国际预料将取得一次过的7700万澳洲(2亿3100万令吉)税前获利,或相等于每股盈利9.8仙。

这项酒店脱售将在明年第二季完成。

受该消息激励,该股也从早盘的跌势,在午盘恢复交易后出现反弹,闭市时收报54.5仙,涨1仙或1.87%,全日成交量达1519万3700股。

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

大选提前加速马股上涨 银行业者成首选股

大选提前加速马股上涨 银行业者成首选股
2010/12/14 10:55:41 AM
●南洋商报 报道:周汉文

(吉隆坡13日讯)分析员指出,大选提前是加速马股涨势的另一个利好因素,目前是部署2011年投资策略的良机。

野村证券表示,2011年的3大投资主题为消费激增、资产再膨胀和并购潮主题;达证券行提出的领域,则包括建筑、银行、产业和石油与天然气。

3投资主题

其中,野村证券的首选股项主要来自银行领域,包括联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、马银行(Maybank,1155,主板金融股)和大马投资银行(AMMB,1015,主板金融股)

其他还有首要传媒(Media,4502,主板贸服股)、实达集团(SPSetia,8664,主板产业股)、云顶马来西亚(GenM,4715,主板贸服股)、森那美(Sime,4197,主板贸服股)和大马机场(Airport,5014,主板贸服股)。

或提早大选

尽管大选最后期限落在2013年4月,不过,野村证券预测大选可能提早举行,甚至有望提早至明年上半年。

投资策略方面,野村证券指出,随着股市不断出现并购,并购潮也是不可忽略的投资主题之一。

过去1个月,股市已出现4大并购,其中涵盖6家产业公司以及1家消费集团。

野村证券指出,近期的产业并购和整合有望确保:(一)股市的购兴持续,以及在2011年专注在产业领域;和(二)股市出现更大型的产业业者,以及更庞大的流通率,可吸引更多的投资者。

产业股基本面仍正面

除了股市流通率改善是产业领域的重新评估催化剂,野村证券也维持该领域基本面的正面评价,主要是因供需关系。

并购活动将使银行领域受惠,特别是国内首屈一指的投资银行集团——联昌国际。

UEM置地(UEMLand,5148,主板产业股)收购阳光(Sunrise,6165,主板产业股),以及国库控股(Khazanah)收购百汇控股(Parkway Holding),都由联昌国际担任顾问。

小银行成外资目标

此外,银行领域也出现并购案,如目前的丰隆银行(HLBank,5819,主板金融股)收购国贸资本(EONCap,5266,主板金融股)。

野村证券预计,小型银行业者如安联金融(AFG,2488,主板金融股),有望成为外资银行的并购目标。中型银行业者方面,大马投资银行(AMMB,1015,主板金融股)和兴业资本(RHBCap,1066,主板金融股)是最佳的合并对象。

消费推动经济增长

另一方面,野村证券表示,过去30年大马人口已倍增至2800万,是东协区域内人口最快速增长的国家。

值得关注的是,约一半人口年龄低于25岁,而低于40岁的人口达73%,在年轻人口趋向消费更多的情况下,已促使消费成为经济增长的推动力。

同时,大马人均收入也呈增长趋势,2000年以来,人均收入每年平均增长9%。相比1990年,如今,已有超过55%的家庭每月的收入至少达2500令吉,20年前的收入不超过1000令吉。

整体消费大增

由此可见,中等收入的一群已逐渐提高,而整体消费也因此大增。

此外,更高的原棕油价格也让乡区的种植业者受惠,根据数据,随着2007年原棕油价格高涨,这些业者的收入已提高3倍。

消费支出方面,一般上都是城市显见较为强劲,但从近期的汽车销量数据可见,如今此趋势亦出现在乡区。

宜投资建筑 产业 油气

达证券行指出,经济转型执行方案下,目前是投资建筑、银行、产业和石油与天然气公司的时机。

该分析员表示,以上提及的领域将是经济转型执行方面的最大受惠者。

其中,近期涨潮中,石油与天然气领域已落后于大市,预计各项工程将恢复以及船只租赁率提高下,将是该领域重新评估的催化剂。

同时,分析员指出,美元走弱以及石油输出国组织(OPEC)不会提高石油产量下,将促使原油价格进一步攀高。

分析员预测,令吉兑美元2011年杪可达2.80水平,而令吉持续走强也有助于减轻一些公司的成本压力,如国家能源(Tenaga,5347,主板贸服股)。

Monday, December 6, 2010

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

愛爾蘭現代啟示錄

愛爾蘭現代啟示錄
Created 11/23/2010 - 19:09

在全球的金融風暴之中,愛爾蘭已經成為一個災難中心,也是繼希臘之後,成為歐元區主權債務危機第二個淪陷國。

目前勉強靠著歐盟和國際貨 幣基金(IMF)有條件的1千億歐元援助紓困,總算暫時穩住愛爾蘭金融危機的蔓延。但是目前沒有人敢再樂觀估計,愛爾蘭的金融危機是否就此否極泰來,因為 愛爾蘭同時出現了嚴重的政治和社會危機,假如處理不當,愛爾蘭聯合政府有可能瓦解,地方的分離主義有可能相互傾軋。總之,愛爾蘭已經成為歐洲先進國家一個 突然遭到重挫的現代啟示錄。

愛爾蘭的多重超級危機,對外而言,似乎爆發得太突然,雖然愛爾蘭在外表風光無比,1996至2007年經濟成長7.2%,預算赤字維持在國內生產總 值(GDP)3%以下,符合歐盟財政紀律要求上眼,在歐元區始終是模範生,但這一切進步與繁榮顯然都是假象。其實愛蘭爾早已存在真正的結構性危機問題,而 愛爾蘭的聯合政府一直拒絕面對,以致致惡化難以收拾的地步。

愛爾蘭甫於90年代中期與英國先後與英國及愛爾蘭分離主義組織達致政治和解,代表愛爾蘭已經苦盡甘來,經貿出現穩定快速的成長,外債的危機獲得解 決,愛爾蘭人民對於國家的前途,充滿了自信與希望,因此許歐盟國家都以愛爾蘭做為發展的模範,立志學習愛爾蘭的做法。但是在經濟繁榮的十幾年間,愛爾蘭房 地產泡沫不斷膨脹,終於在2008年金融風暴中爆破,但克文總理不思進行結構性盤整,反而注資銀行製造繁榮假象,自此國家連續3年經濟負成長,整個金融體 系遂徹底垮台,加上聯盟黨獨大的結構,又操控了太多的利益與資源,必然產生太多的利益輸送,以及貪污腐敗的問題。如今愛爾蘭房價已從高點暴跌五成,銀行房 貸大筆爛賬,愛爾蘭能否起死回生很難預估。

經過此次風暴後,綠黨退出愛爾蘭聯合政府,媒體砲轟政府喪權辱國,民怨沸騰,克文政權正處風雨飄搖中。其實此次愛蘭爾風暴起因是執政黨內部的腐敗, 操控愛爾蘭民主黨主要黨務的保守派系,對於黨內改革派的全面擴張影響力,要求進行政黨的全面改革,提出人事、財務、利益的透明化,感到不安與震驚。因為這 些黨內保守派,一向盤據民主黨的廣大既得利益,如何能夠禁得起改革的衝擊,因此開始密謀阻撓改革。問題是他們的形象與能力不足以經歷民意的考驗,所以他們 無法公開與改革派進行決裂,因此他們採取最為可怕的政治暗殺行動,來打擊改革派的掌權。
雖然愛爾蘭執政聯盟在英國的扶持下,仍然能夠勉強的穩住這一連串危機,贏得國會選舉的勝利;但是愛爾蘭克文才就職,準備進行改革,愛爾蘭就爆發了金 融與政治的雙重危機。因為愛蘭爾的整個政治與經濟環境,已經大幅的邁入國際級的開放水準,但是國內的政治與經濟運作,卻因既得利益者的阻擋,沒有進行應有 的結構調整,克文總理身兼財長甚至隱瞞財政金融的問題,只求得過且過,不要在自己的任內爆發就好。結果政府上週才堅稱不需要紓困,如今出爾反爾低頭要錢, 使愛爾蘭陷在風雨飄搖的危機之中,成為歐洲的金融與經貿災難中心。

近年來大馬的發展也遭到了瓶頸,主要原因之一,就是新政黨的改革步伐,遠遠的落後於大馬政治、經濟與社會的進步幅度;國陣至今還沒有完全擺脫種族主 義的決策模式,許多人事、財政、黨務都在派系的操控下進行,對於形象與操守良好的人才,有時造成反淘汰現象。由於執政黨必須靠金權、派系的人馬支撐選舉, 而這些來自金權與派系的支持,自然會要執政黨付出大量的回報代價,因此政治利益輸送、黨紀黨德欠佳等問題,就成為執政黨的致命傷。愛爾蘭的問題與大馬不盡 相同,但有許多可以引為殷鑒之處。
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Source URL: http://opinions.sinchew-i.com/node/17

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

巴菲特接班人 庫姆斯照片曝光

更新: November 17, 2010 18:03

巴菲特接班人
庫姆斯照片曝光
(紐約17日訊)巴菲特接班人庫姆斯(Todd Combs)廬山真面目終曝光!

《財富》雜誌(Fortune)15日公佈庫姆斯(39歲)的照片,他明年1月將正式加入巴菲特執掌的波克夏公司,初期將只管理20億到30億美元(約63億至94億令吉)的投資。

財富這篇標題為“庫姆斯,歡迎來奧瑪哈”的文章是由資深編輯魯米斯(Carol Loomis)撰寫,她是巴菲特老友也是波克夏股東,透過這層關係取得庫姆斯的大頭照。

截至9月底,波克夏的投資組合規模達1130億美元(約3536億令吉),20到30億美元雖只占此投資組合一小部分,但遠高于庫姆斯之前在Castle Point避險基金管理的4億美元(約13億令吉),且與巴菲特熱門接班人選辛普森(Lou Simpson)在波克夏汽車保險部門Geico管理的投資組合規模相當。

這項安排代表巴菲特與副手孟格還在測試庫姆斯,想進一步評估新經理人的操盤技巧與思維。

巴菲特透露,庫姆斯的薪酬由薪水及一套獎勵方案組成,3年間的績效要超越標準普爾500指數,才能獲得獎勵,原則跟辛普森一樣。

Saturday, November 13, 2010

UEM Land-Sunrise merger unravelled By ANITA GABRIEL

Saturday November 13, 2010
UEM Land-Sunrise merger unravelled
By ANITA GABRIEL
anita@thestar.com.my

IT's a well-dressed deal, this planned takeover by government-linked UEM Land Holdings Bhd of builder Sunrise Bhd. Accompanied by a cavalcade of rosy numbers and promises that the merged entity will become one of the "leading real estate company by market value, land bank and total assets", not just in Malaysia but the region, the psychology behind the deal is hard to fault.

The truth, however, as analysts and thick-walleted bankers would tell you, rests in the numbers and, of course, execution. And as far as that's concerned, for now, the views appear as varied and divergent as the corporate cultures of UEM Land and Sunrise.

Since the veil was lifted off the quickly-conceived deal a week ago, for many, its obvious financial and strategic merits far outweigh its niggling points. But there are some who quibble over the "low valuation" accorded to Sunrise, while others deem the exercise as benefiting one more than the other.

This must be frustrating indeed for the deal's protagonists. Sunrise's chief steward Datuk Tong Kooi Ong, who is the single largest shareholder and executive chairman, says: "People are always hung up over who gets a better deal. I'm not. If we all try to get a better deal at the expense of the other, then surely we can't get a deal done.

"A deal materialises when both parties believe they are better off. And this one clearly is. The synergies are extremely clear," he says in an interview with StarBizWeek.

The deal in a nutshell

UEM Land has launched a RM1.4bil conditional takeover offer for Sunrise at RM2.80 a piece. Sunrise shareholders have two options – to accept 1.33 UEM Land shares at an issue price of RM2.10/share for every Sunrise share surrendered or to accept 2.8 unlisted redeemable convertible preference share (RCPS) in UEM Land at an issue price of RM1 for every Sunrise share.

Those who opt for the second route, can convert their RCPS any time within two years from the issue date at RM2.30 each.

Shareholders can also choose to redeem RCPS at RM1 upon maturity. Any outstanding RCPS not converted or redeemed will be converted into UEM Land shares automatically.

There's a third option for shareholders if you count dumping their shares and walking away from the deal. OSK Research throws in a fourth – to hold out and wait for a sweeter offer, which it readily admits is risky.

The voluntary general offer is conditional upon UEM Land receiving more than 50% acceptance, which is deemed almost a done deal as three key shareholders – Tong, Datuk Allan Lim and Tan Sri Danny Tan Chee Sing – who collectively own 40.3% interest in Sunrise (25% is held by Tong) have given an irrevocable undertaking to accept the offer.

Assuming a 100% acceptance for the share swap, UEM Group's current stake of 77.1% in UEM Land will be diluted to 65% while Tong and friends will collectively hold 6% in the merged entity and other shareholders of Sunrise will have a collective stake of 9% in UEM Land.

On the other hand, a 100% RCPS alternative with full conversion under the cash conversion method will see UEM Group's stake in UEM Land diluted to 56% while Tong and his friends will collectively hold 11% equity stake in the merged entity and other Sunrise shareholders will have a collective stake of 17%.

The quibble

Could the offer have been better? Maybe.

And more so, if you agree with OSK Research that the Malaysian property scene is "at the cusp of a strong positive re-rating". By most valuation benchmarks – be it price to earnings (P/E), price to net tangible asset (P/NTA) and price to real net asset value (P/RNAV) – it would appear as if the offer falls short.

At RM2.80 a piece and with the just-announced 20 sen net interim dividend tossed in, OSK Research says Sunrise is valued at 1.3 times FY11 price/NTA but at a mere 0.58 times price/RNAV (RNAV of RM5.15),

The offer, says ECM Libra Research, only values Sunrise at 7.3x P/E based on CY11 earnings, which is lower than its peers. "Its closest peer Mah Sing, which has similar market capitalisation and also a perceived lack of landbank, is currently trading at 10.4x P/E based on CY11 earnings," it says.

Sunrise's pre-announcement traded price of RM2.52 is some 23% off its 52-week high of RM3.26 while UEM's last traded price of RM2.26 is merely 10% off its 52-week high of RM2.52.

To put it simply, to accept the offer, Sunrise shareholders ought to be convinced that the merger would unlock more value in their holdings over and above what the company can achieve on a stand alone basis.

Ultimately, the best barometer on the market's take to the offer still rests in the price performance of both counters post-announcement. The deal has received a resounding nod; both counters have leaped since the announcement. Sunrise's shares have climbed 25% from its pre-suspension price of RM2.52 to RM3.16 on Thursday while those of UEM Land has risen by 9% from RM2.26 to RM2.47.

But one market wag says the trend is "rather atypical". "Normally, the buyer's counter will fall while the seller's will go up. But in this instance, both have gone up. Because it's a share swap, if the buyer goes up, the target's price will also rise," he says.

That's a good start, if any and one that UEM Group Bhd group managing director/CEO Datuk Izzaddin Idris can't help but point out: "For a start, the fact that the market has spoken with the appreciation in the respective share prices, is a good sign."

Naturally, Tong can't resist either: "The value proposition for UEM Land is the strength of the people and the brand in Sunrise. It only makes sense if UEM Land can retain and harness this value for the new enlarged UEM Land ... the financial market agrees given the way both companies' shares have appreciated since the deal was announced."

Merger of unequals?

One's a large scale developer with massive tracts of land with an "I got your back" stamp from the Government, given its ultimate controlling shareholder is state investment arm Khazanah Nasional Bhd, while the other, an entrepreneur-driven nimble outfit with a penchant for high-end high rise buildings. Yet, small, Sunrise is anything but.

"Let me correct a general misperception. Sunrise was, but is hardly, a boutique developer today. It is one of Malaysia's largest property developers with sales of RM800mil and pre-tax profit of over RM150mil a year. There are only a handful of other developers in Malaysia with better financials," says Tong.

Melding two diverse corporate cultures could prove to be a tough act.

The different cultures are perhaps best embodied by the top executive cadre of the two entities; Tong is the casually-clad innovative-oriented and creative risk-seeker who used to be a banker and also owns media company The Edge Communications Sdn Bhd apart from having businesses abroad. UEM Land CEO Wan Abdullah Wan Ibrahim is an industry lifer who has spent over a decade of his career in several GLCs while Izzaddin, boss of UEM Group, which controls UEM Land, is a "GLC-lifer" who has spent his career in a smorgasbord of businesses from banking, utility, construction to property. One's a true-blue entrepreneur, while the other two, true blue professional managers.

It's easy to forget but UEM Group is actually more of a "reverse GLC" as it was privately-owned long before it was brought to the fold of state-owned Khazanah.

"UEM has a private sector DNA but it has government backing. In that sense, you can say that both organisations are not as vastly different as perceived. Still there is a state-owned mentality that's quite prevalent in the organisation," says an observer.

But some contend that it is this unique difference which could make the teaming up work.

"The unique thing about property companies is that the cultures may not even have to merge. By nature, a property company is focused on a project by project basis. For example, in UEM Land, the Putera Harbour team (a high end luxury waterfront project) is different from the team that is undertaking the rest of Nusajaya. On the development side, there are always separate teams handling the various projects. That means, one can leverage off the central expertise but each development can run separately," says an industry observer.

Still, quite visibly it's an issue foremost in everyone's mind.

"The major challenge will be people. We will need to address their concerns, to encourage and motivate them," says Tong.

Izzaddin alludes to that when he says: "Ultimately with any business or operational combination, the challenge is to successfully implement the plan to immediately extract the synergies. Call it execution risk. In this case, with the common ground and universal values that both organisations profess coupled with the professionalism and mutual respect we have for each other, I am fairly confident that it will be the case of 1+1 is more than 2. The issue for my team and I is how much more than 2!"

Tension among partners?

Could there be another reason, though not over-riding, for the recent deal? According to industry insiders, there is some long-standing friction between two other major shareholders of Sunrise – Danny Tan and Allan Lim, who respectively own 8.5% and 7.2%. Tan and Lim are brothers-in-law, having married two sisters.

Lim, the executive deputy chairman of Sunrise, according to insiders has keen interest in property development and has contributed substantially to the group's achievements. On the other hand, Tan is regarded as a passive investor in Sunrise as he is the controlling shareholder of another property company Dijaya Corp Bhd.

Still, an industry source says "the issues" between the two parties do not at all affect Sunrise.

For UEM Land, it hooked up with Sunrise after trawling for potential suitors for some time.

"We explored a host of potential candidates. After a careful study ... where we mapped the various candidates' profiles against a selection criteria based on our own strategic requirements, we felt that Sunrise was the most suitable candidate.

We were fortunate that Sunrise shares the same view and more importantly it was a willing seller," says Wan Abdullah.

Paving the way for an exit?

There is a strong sense of foreboding in the marketplace, that Tong, through this deal, is paving the way for his exit from the property developer. That may be a possible risk which, at this juncture, none of the deal's proponents would care to admit as he has been instrumental in the company's commendable growth in recent years.

In fact, Credit Suisse in a recent report pointedly refers to it: "The risks to potential benefits lies in the retention of Sunrise's key staff and the role Sunrise chairman Datuk Tong will play in UEM Land following the acquisition."

OSK Research echoes this sentiment: "Should he (Tong) no longer play a proactive role in driving Sunrise post-merger, there is little doubt that the company's current shareholders may get jittery."

But Tong is quick to brush off such nagging suspicions. "I am a shareholder of Sunrise like other shareholders. This deal creates value for all of us. I am not sure what you mean by "exit". I am not selling out. I am accepting the offer," he says just as pointedly.

"It is not possible to know how long I will stay invested, whether in Sunrise or in the new enlarged UEM Land. Many things can happen to my life. But my intention is to continue (being) invested, to help grow the business and the people and create value for shareholders and customers," he elaborates.

In line with this, Tong will be made chairman of both the development committees of UEM Land and Sunrise, and is expected to be the "platform" to take Nusajaya (UEM Land's flagship project) to the next level. "This appointment is a strong signal from UEM Land (that they want my experience, knowledge and assistance)," says Tong.

Tong's RCPS option

Tong plans to convert his shares in Sunrise to the RCPS of UEM Land. "Taking the RCPS shows my longer term commitment to the enlarged entity. The market would be worried if I take shares on the basis that I will sell out," he says, adding that this acquisition was clearly not just for the physical assets of Sunrise but also "the intangibles, the brand, the people".

"The structure of the RCPS has a good gearing effect on the performance of UEM Land. Although the conversion is at a premium (RM2.30 versus RM2.10), the RCPS holders can opt for cash option redemption as well ... In other words, if UEM Land does well (which I am confident it will), then the RCPS has a very good "option value".

"What options you choose depends on your assessment of the future success of the enlarged entity. The more positive you are of the future UEM Land, the higher is the value of the RCPS. As someone who will be partly responsible for the future UEM Land, I should show by example and commitment and my confidence. Therefore, I must accept the RCPS. It would be wrong otherwise," he adds.

But as far as minority shareholders are concerned, there may be little reason to opt for the RCPS – it is not tradeable, offers zero yield and is convertible at a higher price. "The shares are more liquid. There's no motivation to take up the RCPS. The only one who may be incentivised to do it is someone like Tong as it allows him to buy more shares in future and tap the upside potential of the group, which he will be helping to contribute to anyway over the next two years (tenure of the RCPS)," says an observer.

The pull factor

UEM Land's most prized asset is in Nusajaya, located west of Johor Baru and part of Iskandar Malaysia, a masive southern development corridor project. UEM Land has some 8,300 acres left in Nusajaya, of which about 2,700 acres are currently being developed.

To date, the company has introduced various projects in Nusajaya with a combined gross development value (GDV) of RM13bil. "UEM Land has brought in various development partners to accelerate the development namely Gamuda Bhd, United Malayan Land Bhd, Malaysian Biotechnology Corp Sdn Bhd (BiotechCorp), Encorp Bhd and most recently Bandar Raya Developments Bhd with a total committed land investments of RM744mil.

Sunrise, and more specifically, Tong's role in this precious piece is hard to miss.

"This deal will allow UEM Land to leverage on Sunrise's strong brand equity, pioneering knowledge in developing "lifestyle experience", capable management team and proven track-record in managing development of quality, high-rise residential, serviced residences and commercial properties.

"Sunrise will be able to immediately fill one of the numerous key components of the entire Nusajaya development," says Izzaddin, In short "to pull in the crowd and buyers".

The BIG picture

The deal's merits are hard to knock. UEM Land will be able to feel the sugar rush in its earnings as soon as it consolidates the financial results of the Sunrise group, which has RM3.2bil in GDV for new projects till the end of next year with RM1.2bil in unbilled sales, boasting an admirably high gross margins of 30%.

For Sunrise, it is just as compelling; it can finally diversify from flagship Mont'Kiara, where some say competition is heating up and gain an entry into Iskandar Malaysia, which is in sync with its growth strategy to have "multiple products in multiple locations." It also helps solve its "small landbank" disadvantage (Sunrise has 164 acres versus UEM Land's 11,400 acres).

But be warned – big may be vogue for booming sectors hungry for consolidation but it doesn't always end up better. The corporate landscape around the globe is proof of that.

Closer to home, the mega plantation merger that resulted in the rebirth of a larger Sime Darby Group three years ago is far from flaw-free. If anything, it has taught us that the sweetness in the combined numbers and commercial rhetoric at the inception of such mergers can very soon turn sour if executed poorly.

For we all know, UEM Group, which has to a great extent managed to shed its past stigma, can ill afford another big blunder.

Monday, November 8, 2010

试叩历史新高 ●陈金阙

经济眼:试叩历史新高 ●陈金阙
2010/11/05 5:40:52 PM
●陈金阙 财务规划者

不知不觉,马股已站上1500点。在这里,奉劝您不要太相信坊间的话,更不要无条件接纳免费的股票贴士。如果您在这两年没赚到钱,先恭喜您,因为下来一年财神的大门还是为您而开。如果您在这两年赚大钱,我更要恭喜您,因为您智勇双全,在危机中抓到契机,为人所不能,该得个“赞” 字。如果这两年钱没赚到,反而亏了,那也希望您不要放弃,迎向美好的明天,总有意气风发的一日。不过话说回来,马股离历史的高点(1521点)只是区区的 15点,创造历史新高只是时间问题,我们更关心的,是下来的路要怎么走。

有人说,突破历史新高,必然面对投资者套利,先经过一轮卖压,才会重新攀回上升的轨道。这话不尽然对,我们之前的1300点、1400点,同样有这番话冒出来,不过当它突破后,现在回首看来,似是发了一场春梦,似假还真,转眼间已在挑战——跨过了1500点。所以,专家不能告诉您未来绝对的发展,专家只能帮您分析历史:结果A是什么种的因,若不是A,那么结果B又是什么原因造就。

虎年股市虎虎生威

那么,会越来越多人觉得太高了,应该要离场观望吗?这要看您乐意听到什么声音。觉得股市太高的人,早在1100点就已经说出他的担忧了,只是聪明的您没听从他而已。这就如觉得楼市泡沫化一样,知道什么是泡沫吗?炒楼的人告诉我,有通货膨胀就有经济泡沫,您相信吗?笔者倒遇到越来越多的朋友和顾客转行去卖产业了,看来产业似乎才刚刚热起来呢!

我们看年头股市似乎跌跌撞撞的,还怕它双衰退,没想到下半年竟然生龙活虎,大大应了今年虎年的虎虎生威。看淡市的人大跌眼镜,消声匿迹。随着马海事重工控股(MHB) 辉煌挂牌,首日溢价90仙,散户价由3令吉61仙涨至4令吉51仙,让大家乐开怀。其母公司MISC的小股东尤其高兴,盖小股东享有蓝表格权益,公司大方的有求必应,让所有申请者都分到一些MHB新股,大家一齐赚钱。

紧接而来的,是未上市已先轰动的国油化学(Petronas Chemicals) 。无巧不成书,去年引起轰动的吸资王明讯(Maxis) ,也是在11月上市,看来首相蛮喜欢的数字(11) ,一再的捎来佳音,说不定大选也落在明年的11月呢。即将上市的国油化学,其吸资能力比明讯有过之而无不及,筹资达125亿令吉,是今年东南亚融资规模之最。

30综合指数股重洗牌

不但如此,单以散户价5令吉5仙计算,80亿的股本已值404亿令吉,成功突破金融、种植或电讯股垄断马股最大市值的局面,一举占据第五大市值,为油气/工程股争光。同时,它也将成为30综合指数股,为马股攀上历史高峰尽一份力。这里不得不提的是,随着马股水涨船高,30综合指数股也将重新洗牌,那些忝居末席的如成功多多、马航等地位岌岌可危,若不力争上游,必为更强者取代。

国行的先见之明 ●刘慧欣

欣言慧语: 国行的先见之明 ●刘慧欣
2010/11/06 5:43:30 PM
●刘慧欣

国家银行宣布,将购买第三间房屋的房贷顶限设在70%,虽然此举不直接影响首次购屋者,也没有对市井小民带来优惠,但对逐渐炽热的房市 ,却起到了降温作用。

目前,大马房市还没泡沫化迹象,但却以高速步伐升值,若政府一直视而不见,等问题恶化时恐怕难以控制。

热钱已成为区域市场目前最大挑战,美国联储局本周四宣布再实施量化宽松政策(QE2),预料将因此制造更多游资涌入新兴市场。其中,房地产是其中一个最易聚集热钱的盆地,各国央行也开始采取策略,“围堵”热钱。

马来西亚国行,向来倾向采取先行措施(Preemptive measure),面对市场危机时一般快速反应,曾经是亚洲区首个采取货币紧缩政策,应对通胀的国家。

相比其他区域市场,虽然大马房价仍低,但相信国行已经从国外的情况及联储局的二次宽松政策,预测到房价的未来走向。国行将第三间房屋房贷顶限设在70%的措施,显然是要阻遏投机活动。

目前,我国房市投资活动大部分集中在高档区,这些房子的买家,一般是外籍人士或本身已有房子的大马人。买高档产业,主要是看好市场升值趋势,希望从中赚钱。

虽然只集中在特定地区,但当高档房子的价格被炒高,周边产业及其他类型的房价也会受带动而走高。这也是为何,有意购置首间房屋的国人,开始感受到买屋子越来越难。

国行的新政策,将打击投机活动,也有助大众市场的房价以真实价值为基础逐步扬升,对促进房地产市场健康、及市井小民而言都是值得拍手称赞的好事!

Gold sets a new record high amid economic fears

Published: Tuesday November 9, 2010 MYT 9:05:00 AM
Gold sets a new record high amid economic fears

NEW YORK (AP) — Investors looking for safer places to stow their assets pushed gold to a record price above US$1,400 an ounce Monday as they become more worried about the global economy.

A combination of issues have created fresh worry among investors: Ireland's debt difficulties and two key global summits where leaders of major industrial and developing nations are discussing currencies, free trade and ways to help the world economy.

Also in the back of investors' minds is the prospect of inflation stemming the Federal Reserve's multi-billion bond-buying program.

"People are really concerned again and so I think we're seeing safe-haven buying," IG Markets Inc. CEO Dan Cook said.

"Whether you're holding dollars or euros or whatever you're holding, gold is that one kind of go-to product, a commodity as well as a currency type of trade," he said. "Nobody seems to be that willing to sell out of it."

Gold for December delivery added $5.50 to settle at a record high of $1,403.20 an ounce. Some analysts believe gold could go climb as high as $1,500 an ounce by year end.

In other metals contracts for December, silver added 68.4 cents to settle at $27.432 an ounce; copper gained 0.8 cent to $3.9565 pound and palladium rose $25.50 to $710.90 an ounce. January platinum rose $2.20 to settle at $1,771.10 an ounce.

Oil prices settled at a high for the year while most of the other energy contracts also rose.

Benchmark oil for December delivery settled up 21 cents at $87.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts think oil prices could climb to $90 a barrel by the end of the year.

In other December energy contracts on the Nymex, heating oil added 1.29 cents to settle at $2.3977 a gallon, gasoline slipped 0.15 cent to $2.1785 per gallon while natural gas gained 15.1 cents to $4.088 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Grains and beans were mixed ahead of Tuesday's U.S. Agriculture Department report updating global supply and demand estimates of major crops.

December wheat added 7.5 cents to settle $7.3625 a bushel, December corn gained 11.5 cents to $5.9925 a bushel and January soybeans lost 9.25 cents to $12.7475 a bushel. - AP

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Stock to watch from Oct 11 to Oct 15, 2010

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.富貴集團(NVMULTI) 5021 0.80 0.56 0.64 0.38 0.69 0.64 0.674
該集團大股東Mutual Tactic公司建議以2億9500萬令吉,或每股78仙全面獻購未持有的該公司股票,包括所有的資產與負債。

2.WCT公司(WCT) 9679 3.23 2.30 2.76 3.23 3.17 3.20 3.05
該公司從大馬機場手中,攫取雪邦新廉航終站的25年特許經營權,為綜合大廈及相關工程展開私有化發展計劃,建築成本為4億8600萬令吉。

3.綠馳通訊科技(GPACKET) 0082 1.68 0.32 0.90 1.00 0.92 0.91 0.927
傳政府撥9億WiMax補助金,有3電訊公司受惠。此公司會榜上有名嗎?

4.友力森(UNISEM) 5005 3.53 1.43 1.68 2.06 1.89 1.88 1.86
此公司在全球半導體市場復蘇下表現轉強,而且賺幅維持穩定,美元走疲效應被產品成本低廉和需求上漲抵銷,2010全年預料取得128%凈利成長。

5.MASTERSKILL教育(MEGB) 5166 4.30 2.80 2.80 3.43 3.18 3.18 3.18
該公司持續曝光在高免疫成長教育和保健領域,業務賺幅高,加上股價處在被低估水平,因此前景備受看好。

Monday, October 4, 2010

納吉:專才機構明年1月啟動‧邀請海外專才回歸

納吉:專才機構明年1月啟動‧邀請海外專才回歸

* 國內

2010-10-04 19:12

*

納吉與夫人羅斯瑪(右2及右1)趁著前往比利時出席第八屆亞歐洲峰會期間,特別為旅居當地的大馬人主辦開齋節晚宴,邀請身在異鄉的同胞共慶佳節。(圖:馬新社)

(比利時‧布魯塞爾4日訊)首相拿督斯里納吉表示,專才機構(Talent Corporation)將在明年1月正式啟動,以吸引海外大馬專才回國。

他說,專才機構將尋找在海外的大馬專才,並處理專才回國服務所面對的問題。


製造更多就業機會

“以前是我們等他們聯絡,這次,我們要去找他們回來。”

“我們要知道他們考慮回國的需求,同時也製造更多就業機會,並給予較符合國際薪金水平的薪金。”

納吉於星期日晚抵達比利時,以出席第八屆亞歐峰會。

他接受大馬媒體訪問時說,政府將實行多項措施,讓海外的大馬專才樂觀看待回國服務,為國家發展作出貢獻一事。

“他們已看到本身可扮演角色的機會,我相信一旦計劃推行後,他們的態度會更積極,因為他們已經喜歡我們的計劃與策略。”

首相說,有效及即時執行的計劃,將讓海外大馬專才考慮回國。

“我想,讓事情變得更好的方式是,我們如何更快地落實各項計劃,以及在鑑定的領域中製造商業機會;只有這樣,我們才有能力吸引海外專才回國。”

另外,納吉在出席特別為旅居當地的大馬人主辦的開齋節晚宴上,也告訴在場的250名大馬人,馬來西亞正要度過一個興奮的時刻,因為大馬正在轉型,並要進入最後衝刺階段,以在2020年成為先進國。

他也講解“一個馬來西亞”概念,並強調這不是一個口號,而是大馬制定政策與行動的領導哲學。
星洲日報‧2010.10.04

Monday, September 27, 2010

stock to watch from Sept 27 to Oct 1, 2010

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.百盛(PARKSON) 5657 6.20 4.96 5.35 6.20 5.68 5.68 5.78
經濟轉型計劃(ETP),批發和零售的投資額是2550億令吉,百盛及永旺集團被分析員點名。

2.肯油企業(KENCANA) 5122 2.51 1.26 1.56 2.51 1.63 1.63 1.60
經濟轉型計劃,石油、天然氣和能源的投資額佔2180億令吉,被點名的公司除了肯油企業之外,還包括華商機構、國油氣體、科恩馬及戴樂集團。

3.誠信太平洋(RPB) 8885 0.48 0.375 0.375 0.48 0.41 0.41 0.425
經濟轉型計劃,旅游的投資額佔2040億令吉,榜上有名會受惠的公司除了RPB之外,還包括雲頂、雙威及雲頂大馬。此股屬冷門股。

4.大馬交易所(BURSA) 1818 8.59 6.75 7.66 8.59 8.09 8.15 7.63
經濟轉型計劃,金融服務的投資額佔2110億令吉,榜上有名會受惠的股項除了BURSA之外,還有聯昌集團、馬銀行及大眾銀行。

5.金務大(GAMUDA) 5398 3.98 2.58 3.53 3.98 3.82 3.84 3.70
經濟轉型計劃大吉隆坡的投資額佔1720億令吉,榜上有名會受惠的公司除了金務大之外,還有馬資源、MMC、楊忠禮機構及實達集團。

Friday, September 24, 2010

雅京推出一站式服務‧38天辦妥投資准證

雅京推出一站式服務‧38天辦妥投資准證

* 國內

2010-09-24 11:19

(印尼‧雅加達24日訊)雅京投資統籌與促銷機構推出一站式服務,讓投資者申辦各種准證所需時間,從原先需時60天縮短為38天。

雅京省長法烏齊.勃沃在南區主持一站式綜合服務所啟用儀式時說一站式綜合服務能在雅京創出更佳的投資氛圍,此前,許多准投資者均抱怨申辦證件中經費不透明及需時太長問題。


他說:“在雅京申辦投資准證,此前需時60天,而經費高達印尼人均收入的26%,在泰國僅需時32天和經費占人均收入的6.3%。”

雅京專區地方議會第C委員會成員阿赫瑪德.胡辛.阿來德魯斯認為必須消除國內投資者與外資間的歧視,因所有投資者將對雅京提供經濟利益,尤其是國內投資者將帶來較多的資金。
印尼星洲日報‧2010.09.24

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

本週龍5榜stock to watch from Sep 20 to Sep 24, 2010

本週龍5榜
股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.泰達(DATAPRP) 8338 0.485 0.275 0.275 0.35 0.31 0.315 0.297
該公司說,將與大股東拿督林致華旗下VXL集團緊密合作,找尋海外投資機會,加上持有9000萬令吉累積訂單,相信今年可取得35%至45%營業額成長。

2.高產尼品(KOSSAN) 7153 8.55 3.06 3.06 3.58 3.29 3.20 3.34
僑豐預測此股2010財政年凈利可達1億1910萬令吉及2011財政年則為1億2900萬令吉,將在目標價降至5令吉25仙(之前為5令吉65仙)。

3.納因控股(NAIM) 5073 3.70 2.40 3.24 3.70 3.53 3.54 3.45
僑豐看好該公司在砂拉越基健發展的地位,迄今,砂拉越頒發予上市建築業者的合約量達12億6000萬令吉,按年成長了33.2%。

4.福勝利(HSL) 6238 1.71 0.945 1.55 1.71 1.67 1.68 1.59
市場消息說,福勝利將在一至兩週內獲頒總值1億令吉的砂拉越基建工程合約。

5.寶利機構(BONIA) 9288 1.79 0.97 1.26 1.79 1.56 1.77 1.38
該公司收購新加坡競爭對手JECO私人有限公司(JECO)的70%股權,受市場看好,認為彼此競爭將轉為互惠互利地位。使該公司在擴大亞太區域市場額更有利地位。

Friday, September 17, 2010

到期票據知多少

買進日期 主要板 創業板 總數 到期日 逼倉日(1) 逼倉日(2)
(百萬股)(百萬股)(百萬股)(百萬股)(T+3)(T+4)(T+7)

1-9-10 831.393 53.011 884.405 6-9-10 7-9-10 13-9-10
2-9-10 931.991 54.841 986.832 7-9-10 8-9-10 14-9-10
3-9-10 780.990 48.623 829.613 8-9-10 9-9-10 15-9-10
6-9-10 621.682 58.135 679.818 9-9-10 13-9-10 17-9-10
7-9-10 553.915 49.421 603.336 13-9-10 14-9-10 20-9-10
8-9-10 479.229 93.026 572.256 14-9-10 15-9-10 21-9-10
9-9-10 367.444 48.435 415.879 15-9-10 17-9-10 22-9-10

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Can M'sian equity market sustain interest of foreign investors?

Wednesday September 15, 2010
Can M'sian equity market sustain interest of foreign investors?
By FINTAN NG
fintan@thestar.com.my

US$307.7mil flowed into the local equity market in July alone

PETALING JAYA: There is a big question over how the local equity market can sustain the interest of foreign fund managers as the benchmark FBM KLCI has risen 18.06% since the May 26 low.

“That’s the million-dollar question,” CIMB Investment Bank Bhd research head Terence Wong told StarBiz over the phone yesterday.

Wong, citing Emerging Portfolio Fund Research data, said in a report dated Aug 26 that some US$307.7mil of foreign funds flowed into the local equity market in July alone, which helped to push year-to-date net flows into positive territory.
Terence Wong says US$307.7mil flowed into the local equity market in July alone

He said since these fund flows were erratic to begin with, “it is very hard to answer whether it will be sustainable since we don’t know what the fund managers are thinking as they won’t reveal their strategy.”

For the first five months of the year, the local equity market saw net outflows, which then turned positive in June when US$168.8mil flowed into the market.

Wong said foreign interest in Malaysian stocks was part of the “emerging-markets theme” which had been playing out over recent weeks.

“The region’s resilient economies are also seeing domestic demand growth as well as stronger currencies versus the US dollar,” he said, adding that economies in the region buttressed by strong growth in China and India were “better places for fund managers to place their money.”

Morgan Stanley Research analyst Jonathan Garner said in a Sept 2 report that focus in the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan regional benchmark was now shifting towards the lower-income/faster-growing countries in the region and away from the more advanced countries.

He said this was due to, among others, new and secondary listings, stock buybacks as well as mergers and acquisitions.

Garner said between the current situation and October 2007, the weightage (on the MSCI) of China, Malaysia, Indonesia and India had gained the most while Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong had fallen the most.

He added that the only exception to the trend was Singapore, which gained.

However, Fortress Capital Asset Management Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Thomas Yong was less sanguine, opting for fixed-income securities over equities.

He said the uncertain economic outlook could prompt investors into dumping stocks for safer bonds.

“In my opinion, growth will be fairly moderate for the rest of the year and next year, so investors may want to manage their risks,” Yong said, adding that yields in Malaysian fixed-income securities were higher than in the region and against US dollar instruments, making it a more attractive investment.

Monday, September 6, 2010

stocks to watch from Sep 6 to Sept 9, 2010

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.雙威城(SUNCITY) 6289 4.28 2.88 3.56 4.28 3.94 3.99 3.81
此公司以2860萬令吉增持雙威水上樂園(Sunway Lagoon)的45%股權,此有助增強盈利水平,並調高2010財年財測達2%

2.雙威控股(SUNWAY) 4308 1.73 1.16 1.57 1.73 1.61 1.63 1.62
此公司轄下聯營公司以1億6500萬新元(3億8400萬令吉)標獲新加坡建築發展局位於義順美弄(Miltonia Close)的99年租借地段。

3.公共產業信托(ARREIT) 5127 0.925 0.765 0.765 0.925 0.885 0.885 --
此公司以2億7000萬令吉向雪蘭莪發展機構(PKNS)收購3項產業,而以1億6200萬現金及每股估價88仙,發行1億2272萬7273單位支付,此舉讓此公司長期受看好。

4.啟順之紙業(NTPM) 5066 0.625 0.50 0.575 0.625 0.595 0.59
紙業原料成本走高,此公司截至2010年7月31日止,首季凈利自前期1405萬5000令吉挫11.71%到1240萬9000令吉。

5.許甲明(KKB) 9466 7.22 1.43 1.76 2.06 1.83 1.83 1.80
大馬有9公司上榜《福布斯亞洲》200大10億美元以下最佳公司,許甲明榜上有名。

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

stocks to watch from Aug 30 to Sept 3, 2010

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.楊忠禮置地(YTLLAND) 2577 1.18 0.88 0.915 1.02 0.93 0.925 0.92
基本因素好,技術圖顯示可能是另一個小漲潮的開始。

2.森那美(SIME) 4197 9.24 7.47 7.48 8.31 7.78 8.10 7.75
該公司第4季雖不出所料做出龐大撥備,惟分析員一致預測“暴風雨已過”,潛在撥備風險已降低,加上重組進度如火如荼與其他核心業務強勢輔助,料2011財政年可迎接彩虹。

3.UEM置地(UEMLAND) 5148 1.82 1.21 1.57 1.74 1.66 1.64 1.66
歸功於高營業額,以及脫售一觸即通(Touch N Go)20%股權獲2560萬令吉賺益,帶動UEM置地截至2010年6月30日止首半年,凈利急增409.35%至4348萬8000令吉。

4.錦記鋼鐵(KINSTEL) 5060 1.18 0.77 0.77 1.18 0.875 0.865 0.85
在鋼鐵價格與鋼鐵需求走高下,錦記鋼鐵截至2010年6月30日次季轉虧為盈,凈利達817萬7000令吉,前期為凈虧損787萬8000令吉。

5.勇達集團(ENGTEX) 5056 1.21 0.88 0.93 1.21 0.95 1.00 0.97
2009年第二季業績季比回升,原因是國際及國內市場出現復蘇跡象。

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Why is there a lack of interest in the market?

Wednesday August 25, 2010
Why is there a lack of interest in the market?
Personal Investing - By Ooi Kok Hwa

THE FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index (FBM KLCI) finally touched 1400-level again. Despite high index level, the overall daily traded volume remained low at about 700 million-800 million. We believe, except for certain fund managers and day traders, not many retail investors were excited about the market. In this article, we will look into the reasons why investors are not investing at the moment.

We believe one of the main reasons is that many investors are still quite worried about the global economic recovery. Given that a lot of newspaper articles, media as well as some investment gurus have been saying that the global economy still has the possibility to have “double dips” or slip into recession again. Nevertheless, at this point in time, we believe nobody will know for sure whether the economy will enter into recession.

However, we notice that the current high FBM KLCI level was mainly driven by high stock prices of some key blue-chip stocks or fund favourite stocks. Investors need to understand that even though the FBM KLCI is surging to reach the recent 2008 peak of 1500-level again, there are still plenty of stocks selling at very cheap valuation.

A lot of second- and third-liners are still selling at 2008-09 low but with good values, i.e. price/earnings ratio of about six times, dividend yield of above 5% as well as selling below the owners’ costs (or selling below net tangible asset).

Despite the cheap valuation for lower liner stocks, not many investors are aware of their values. For those who may be aware of the values, not many are willing to inject fresh money into the stock market. One of the main reasons is many may still be holding poor quality stocks and these stocks are selling at 2008-09 low.

Given that they are not willing to cut their losses and worried about losing more money in the stock market, they prefer to stay sidelined while waiting for their existing poor quality stocks to recover one day.

In behavioral finance, we name this phenomenon as “snake-bite” effect.

Unfortunately, in most instances, the moment the prices of these poor quality stocks start to recover, this may indicate the end of the recent market rally because most fund managers, company owners and experienced traders will take the opportunity to liquidate their holdings to these retail investors.

Apart from the above reasons, some investors are quite worried over corporate governance issues in some Malaysian listed companies.

Incidents, like some companies being abandoned by their key owners, companies defaulting on their loan repayments, increasing number of companies being classified under Practice Note 17 and later failed to regularise their companies, are affecting the overall market sentiment. As a result, retail investors are quite careful in investing in new companies lately.

Except for Malaysia and a few other countries in the emerging market, the stock market performance of most overseas markets was weak since April this year.

Retail investors were quite concerned over the financial crisis in some European countries, the weak euro currency, weak US economic indicators as well as asset bubble in China. As a result, the retail participation in these markets, including Malaysia, was quite low. Hence, the current low buying interest from our retail investors is in line with the overall global market phenomenon. The buying interest will only come back when the global stock market starts to show signs of recovery again.

Another reason why investors are not buying stocks is that most retail investors have invested quite a big sum of money in unit trust funds. Even though they still have some savings to invest directly in the market, they prefer to keep those excess savings in fixed deposits rather than to buy stocks directly.

This phenomenon also happens in most developed countries where investors prefer to put money in unit trust funds rather than investing in the stock market. As a result, the fund size managed by unit trust companies grows faster every year.

Hence, we notice that the stock prices for fund managers’ favourite stocks or stocks covered by research analysts are surging to new high whereas the performance of the neglected firms remain low.

Unless investors are holding those fund favourite stocks, they will complain that they have not benefited from the recent market rally.

As mentioned earlier, we still have a lot of second or third liner stocks with strong fundamentals that are selling at cheap valuations. Investors are encouraged to do their own research to discover those companies.

● Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

Monday, August 23, 2010

stock to watch from Aug 23 to Aug 27

本週龍5榜

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.陳唱摩多(TCHONG) 4405 5.25 1.83 1.83 5.25 5.10 5.06 4.77
馬幣走強,加上本地化使汽車定價更具彈性,陳唱摩多截至2010年6月30日,第二季凈利揚升84.04%至6365萬5000令吉,促使上半年凈利按年增長68.48%至1億2832萬8000令吉。

2.實康(SALCON) 8567 0.805 0.49 0.49 0.805 0.70 0.72 0.68
該公司第二季業績雖然低於預測,但,建築業估計在下半年將帶來更高的貢獻,目標價格77仙。

3.匯華產業(HUNZPTY) 5018 1.85 1.16 1.16 1.85 1.40 1.40 1.29
由於Alila 2公寓將比預期早推出市場,加上Gurney Paragon購物中心的租金收入,股市分析員上修此股2012財年的凈利預測至3430萬令吉,增幅為16%。

4.頂級手套(TOPGLOV) 7113 14.54 5.98 5.98 14.54 6.08 6.05 7.53
該公司計劃在大馬設立3間新廠房,以及在大馬與泰國的現有廠房增設88條生產線,以在2011年5月份將按年產量提升25%,至412億5000萬隻。

5.華陽(HUAYANG) 5062 1.25 0.65 0.65 1.25 1.21 1.21 1.14
該公司計劃在未來3至5年內進軍中高檔房地產市場。

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Stock to watch from Aug 16 to 20

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.頂峰(SINOTOP) 8532 1.68 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.217
後門上市中國公司,成長前景良好。

2.華運(MSPORTS) 5150 0.89 0.385 0.385 0.89 0.545 0.54 0.45
華運本益比3倍,理論上,買入此股3年回本。

3.喜得狠控股(XDL) 5156 0.765 0325 0.325 0.765 0.48 0.49 0.43
喜得狼控股的PE,即本益比只有2.79倍。

4.星泉國際(XINQUAN) 5155 1.86 1.05 1.05 1.91 1.85 1.85 1.66
星泉國際的本益比只有4.3倍。

5.莫實得重工(BHIC) 8133 5.35 3.60 3.60 5.35 4.59 4.82 4.37
此公司獲大馬政府頒發約13億令吉合約,主要負責提供兩艘大馬皇家海軍首相級魚潛艘支援服務。

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

恆康資源驚爆淪為PN17 馬股企業揭露不足再拉警報

恆康資源驚爆淪為PN17
馬股企業揭露不足再拉警報

報導:李玉萍

更新: August 10, 2010 17:48


(吉隆坡10日訊)馬股上市公司狀況不斷,恆康資源(BASWELL,7156,主要板貿易)毫無預警下驚爆淪為PN17公司,導致股價直線下挫至9個月新低,企業揭露不足再拉警報!

立港工業(KENMARK,7030,主要板消費)醜聞末了,如今再有恆康資源因不堪虧損,9日起終止作為營業額主要來源的家具製造業務,陷入PN17公司的行列,兩家子公司違約付款逾280萬6075令吉。

市場人士認為,讓小股東或投資者感到震驚的是,恆康資源管理層從未預警或暗示,家具製造業務將會突然“喊停”的可能性。

事前未有預警

特別是該公司報備透露,截至去年9月尾財年錄得2056萬6000令吉營業額,家具製造業務貢獻57%或1172萬2620令吉;截至今年3月尾次季的285萬8000令吉營業額,家具製造業務佔53%或151萬4740令吉。

隨著主要財源遭砍,早從截至05年9月尾財年開始虧損累累的恆康資源,讓市場擔心究竟還能如何轉虧為盈。

但禍不單行的是,由于付款和盈利賺幅兩大條款無法談攏,該公司今年1月20日與香港Metroplex資源(Metroplex Resources)簽署的諒解備忘錄告吹。

但該公司早前5月26日報備備忘錄最新發展時,卻絲毫未說明任何風險或條款談不攏,導致可能失去1億美元(約3億1445萬令吉)建設合約的可能性。

欠款缺資金
洽商注入新資產

除了兩家子公司Baswood工業和Aimwood工業違約付款逾280萬6075令吉,恆康資源目前的貸款總額達1066萬6129令吉,約29萬9689令吉款額逾期未還!

恆康資源指出,由于缺乏資金,兩家子公司無力償還欠款,目前與一些單位洽商,注入資產至公司。

根據馬證交所報備文件,上述兩家子公司拖欠馬銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主要板金融)約280萬6076令吉。

Aimwood工業欠債203萬7856令吉,其中88萬5963令吉是定期貸款(term loan),另115萬1893令吉是銀行承兌匯票(banker’s acceptance)。

Baswood工業欠下的76萬8220令吉,則是透支(overdraft)銀行承兌匯票。

恆康資源報備說,截至8月9日,貸款總額高達1066萬6129令吉。

兩家子公司的逾期欠款總計29萬9689令吉,未償還的融資便利余額超過786萬令吉。

寫9個月新低
股價全日跌4仙

面對突如其來的連串壞消息,投資者迫不及待拋售,使恆康資源今早10時恢復交易時,即大跌5仙或26%,以14仙開市,為去年11月12日以來的9個月新低水平。

投資者急售使恆康資源成交量迅速擴大,晉升十大熱門股之一,休市掛15仙,跌4仙,計有622萬5100股易手。

閉市時,恆康資源報15仙,跌4仙,成交量達736萬8300股。

Monday, August 2, 2010

Jho Low, love him or hate him

ON THE BEAT WITH WONG CHUN WAI

Sunday August 1, 2010
Malaysians, and the world, will continue to hear about Low Taek Jho if his present flamboyant lifestyle continues.

LET’S admit it – a lot of us would like to be in the shoes of businessman Jho Low. He is flush with cash, parties with Hollywood celebrities and rubs shoulders with the most influential and powerful.

You either love or loathe the 28-year-old businessman who has been dubbed the international mystery man by the world media for his parties with Paris Hilton and Megan Fox and his penchant for expensive champagne.

I had the opportunity to meet this chubby Penangite last week at his office in one of the top floors of Petronas Twin Towers.

He was more interested in talking about how he made his money, mostly in the Middle East, and his friendship with Arab princes who studied with him at Harrow, an English boarding school that has produced seven prime ministers, and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.

I was more interested in asking him about his exploits, if the word is appropriate, with Paris Hilton and his Hollywood friends.

It was obvious that Low Taek Jho wanted to clear the many media stories, mostly fabricated, that had been reported about him.

He tried to play down the hefty bills for his champagne, his parties and the limousines at his New York apartment, which he said he shares with 11 others.

But I couldn’t help feeling that Low wanted to say that as a single, young man who has made millions, he has the right to be a party animal.

Never mind if he is using his own money – or that of his Arab friends. His lifestyle may be seen as excessive and a waste by others in conservative Malaysia.

Low, who described himself as a businessman and entrepreneur, makes his money by making money for his clients. That’s what people who handle funds do, and he has a portfolio of rich clients.

He puts deals together for businessmen and even governments, using his extensive networking and mostly friendships from his school and university days.

No one can dispute his link with powerful Arab figures like Yousef Al Otaiba, who is currently the ambassador for the UAE to the United States and Mexico.

He talked about certain Hollywood celebrities as if they are his drinking buddies, which they are.

When asked if he had invited Mick Jagger, the Rolling Stones legend, to watch the World Cup in South Africa, his reply was: “I didn’t. I invited Leonardo (Dicaprio) who in turn invited Mick Jagger.”

Are actor Daniel Craig, who plays James Bond, and multi-millionaire rapper Sean “P. Diddy” Combs his neighbours at his apartments?

His reply was: “I don’t know but I have been inside the lift with Sean Combs.”

He denied having any romantic links with Paris Hilton nor any interest in her sister Nicole, saying he was a family friend of the Hiltons and that he handled their investment portfolio.

Low talked of bringing his Hollywood friends to visit Malaysia to promote the country, saying these people had millions of followers on their Twitter.

“Can you imagine the impact they can create for tourism when they promote Malaysia on their Tweets with their millions of followers?”

That would certainly be cheaper than placing advertisements on billboards and in the media, particularly when the international media would also follow these celebrities here.

An advocate of the Blue Ocean Strategy, he has put that on his status message of his Blackberry.

He also sees West Asia and China as massive markets.

Low sees himself as a loyal Malaysian who wants to bring Arab investors to his country, including to Johor’s Iskandar Development project.

But he has also invited criticism with his new-found fame.

His detractors have questioned his credibility and integrity and there are unflattering comments about how he conducts himself and his business deals.

Some have said he is hardly the brilliant financial strategist he has made himself out to be, brushing him off as merely a good salesman. They were outraged by the media prominence accorded to him, including by this newspaper.

But many of these critics have also admitted that they do not know him personally but picked up the negative remarks from friends or friends of friends or the blogs.

His friends, including some powerful figures, say he does not need to open himself to these criticisms as he could choose to stay away. After all, New York and Abu Dhabi are his two working bases.

Malaysians, and the world, will continue to hear about him if his present flamboyant lifestyle continues. He will make good copy for the media.

Hate him or love him, he has attracted attention. This writer has received endless telephone calls from media and business people who want to know him personally, and they include those who hate his guts.

Dr M: Don’t expect much FDI this time

Dr M: Don’t expect much FDI this time

Monday August 2, 2010

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia cannot expect much foreign direct investment (FDI) unlike before, said former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

He said this was because currently, many countries and foreign businessmen did not have the funds to invest in other countries,

Dr Mahathir said at the same time, these countries and foreign businessmen also wanted to invest in their own countries due to the high level of unemployment there.

“So, we cannot expect much foreign direct investment today,” he told reporters when asked to comment on the World Investment Report 2010 by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Develop-ment.

According to the report, the FDI inflow to Malaysia had dropped 81% from RM23.47bil (US$7.381bil) in 2008, to RM4.43bil (US$1.381bil) last year, trailing behind countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore.

In May, International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Mustapa Mohamed had announ-ced that investments in the country for the first quarter of this year amounted to only RM5.2bil, mainly from Singapore, Taiwan and Japan.

Dr Mahathir was speaking to reporters after marking the fourth anniversary celebrations of his bakery The Loaf at its fourth outlet at the IOI Boulevard in Puchong near here yesterday.

Earlier in his speech, Dr Mahathir, who is also chairman of The Loaf, said the company intended to set up franchises at the right time and would be opening its fifth outlet in Bangsar by the end of the year. — Bernama

Stock to watch from Aug 2 to 6

股項 代號 高 低 支持 阻力 開 閉 14日平均價

1.怡保置地(IJMLAND) 5215 2.68 1.54 2.05 2.62 2.25 2.40 2.26
近日有異動,2010財年收入增加64%,主要因產業發展部門的貢獻提高,抵消了酒店業務部門業務量的跌幅,再加上其他營運收入提高,使盈利翻逾1倍。

2.亞洲航空(AIRASIA) 5099 1.57 1.07 1.07 1.55 1.53 1.49 1.42
該公司預期2010財年每股盈利增長12%至22仙,並因2009年的附加股計劃而沖稀。

3.和達工業資源(HPI) 7919 2.00 1.11 1.45 2.00 1.87 1.83 1.75
2010財年業績超越市場預期,全年凈利2280萬令吉,按年增長28.39%,激勵2011財政年凈利調漲58%至2570萬,2012財年達2880萬。

4.史格米工程(SCOMIEN) 7366 1.70 1.00 1.19 1.33 1.25 1.26 1.39
隨著單軌火車的需求有增長的趨勢,該公司除繼續競標印度及其它工程,也將會在巴西、中東等國競標工程。

5.喬治肯特(GKENT) 3204 1.57 0.63 1.17 1.57 1.42 1.39 1.34
該公司向馬交所報備,已與商務伙伴聯洽爭取到一項總值達1億2980萬令吉的工程合約。

Friday, July 30, 2010

天安门学运领袖 李禄或成股神接班人

天安门学运领袖
李禄或成股神接班人


更新: July 30, 2010 17:57

(美国‧华盛顿30日综合电)美国《华尔街日报》报道,中国八九民运学生领袖李禄,可能成为股神巴菲特的接班人,执掌巴郡公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)。

21年前,李禄是天安门广场上抗议活动中的学生领袖,现在则是一名对冲基金经理,并有望成为巴菲特的投资旗舰巴郡公司的继任者。

巴菲特旗下的巴郡投资副董事长芒格透露,担任对冲基金经理的李禄,可能成为其中一位,接手管理巴郡1000亿美元(约3200亿令吉)投资组合的经理。 芒格说,在他看来,这是预料中的事情。

继承巴菲特的事业,是现代企业史上最惹人关注的继任故事之一。

一个月后将过80岁生日的巴菲特说,目前没有退休计划,在他离开公司后,可能将目前的主席职务,分拆成为行政总裁和投资业务两部份,其中投资业务,可能由两名或以上的经理负责。

已加入美国籍的李禄成为监管巴郡投资业务的竞争者,也是第一个被点名可能将接替巴菲特执掌投资部门角色的人。

巴菲持拒绝直接评论接班人计划,但他并不排除在他仍在为巴郡掌舵期间,引入李禄这样的投资经理。

拥有3个学位

现年44岁的李禄在华尔街的晋升非常富有戏剧性,天安门事件后,他逃到法国,辗转流亡到美国,在哥伦比亚大学取得经济、法律及商科三个学位。

李禄说,1993年在大学听过巴菲特演讲,令一直不相信奉金市场的他改变看法。 他1997年开设对冲基金公司,之后担任经理,主力投资亚洲市场。

他的对冲基金的投资者,包括美国企业一些资深高管及音乐人史汀,后者认为李禄“工作勤奋又聪明”。

李禄为毕菲持忠实支持者,同为逆向投资者,喜欢人弃我取的投资策略。 他2003年认识芒格后,向巴郡推介入股中国汽车制造商比亚迪,令巴郡有关投资自2008年起,获利12亿美元。

六四后逃到美国

李禄的另一个身分是中国八九年民运的学生领袖、天安门广场副总指挥。

李禄出生€于1966年文革开始的那一年。 他说,他9个月大时,他当工程师的父亲被送到一个煤矿接受“再教育”。 母亲则被送到一个劳改所。

有好几年,他都在不同家庭之间辗转,直至到了家乡唐山一个文盲矿工的家。 李禄说,小小年纪就与家人分离,这教会他生存的技能。

李禄后来上了南京大学,专业是物理。

1989年4月,23岁的李禄到北京天安门广场遇到在那里集会悼念胡耀邦的学生。 他参与了学生的组织工作,并参加了绝食。

1989年5月21日,解放军透过电台发放消息,要天安门广场清场。 决定流守天安门广场的李禄,当时就有一份危在旦夕的感觉。

此时李禄南京大学同校的女友赵敏来北京探望他。 他想一生苦难,死前若有憾事,即中国人传统的“人生大事”尚未完成,便突发奇想求婚,即获女友首肯。

一个小时内,婚礼便办起来了。 婚礼举行后当晚,他便托人送新娘子回南京,以免同遭不测。

六四事件后,李禄逃亡到巴黎,辗转到美国哥伦比亚大学读书。 赵敏遭中国官方多次干扰,没有人敢聘用她。 她后来嫁给一名美国人,移民到美国。

Low’s interview captures world attention

Low’s interview captures world attention

Saturday July 31, 2010


PETALING JAYA: The world exclusive on Jho Low by The Star has caught the attention of the global media.

Gawker, an American website based in New York City, carried the interview of Low with The Star on its story “Paris Hilton’s mysterious Malaysian party boy tells all”.

The website reported that according to news, Low was paying US$1mil (RM3.18mil) to hang out with her in St Tropez but he told The Star he knew Paris primarily through her parents, whom he had met through his good friend.

The website picked up Low’s explanation on rumours of him renting an apartment in Park Imperial as well as Paris and her sister Nikki accompanying him to St Tropez.

The Newkerala.com, based in India, published the story on Low with the headline “Paris Hilton is just part of group, says Malay­sian businessman”.

The website reported that Low spent a long time in the interview dismissing talk that he was “wasting a lot of money partying”.

A Singapore website asianone.com published the interview with the headline “Paris Hilton’s Malaysian tycoon made his 1st million at 20”.

Singapore’s The Straits Times, in its headline “US$1m before graduation”, also summarised the stories published in The Star.

Local dailies as well as news portals and television stations also picked up the interview. Petaling Jaya-based portal Malaysian Mirror headlined its lead story, “Big spender Jho Low speaks up”.

A day after the interview was published, the 28-year-old multilingual Penangite Low continued to get media attention.

New York Post in its story “Paris parties with Jho Low for free”, reported that Hilton denied she had been paid US$1mil to party with Low in St Tropez. Its website quoted a Hilton representative as saying that they were just friends and that Low had invited Paris and her sister Nicky out as friends.

Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng is proud to note the accomplishments of Penangites who are based overseas, including the “well-connected” Low.

“Low is among many Penangites who have excelled internationally. This augurs well for the state as Penangites have shown they have a tremendous ability to succeed when given the necessary opportunities,” he said after opening the three-day National ICT Asso­ciation of Malaysia trade fair at the Penang International Sports Arena here.

The right place, right time and the right people

 
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A millionaire before graduating

 
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No Ordinary Jho

 
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US Recovering added new doubts

 
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SJ Aasets Management has nothing to do with SJ Securities Sdn Bhd.

SJ Assets Management has nothing to do with SJ Securities Sdn Bhd

 
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Property stock coming up soon

 
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Thursday, July 29, 2010

10 myths in the stock market

 
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World Growth Cooling down

 
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KPJ looks positive in a longer term

 
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OFI expanded its capacity

 
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If ETS Programme is successful, Maybank's profit can be all time high

 
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Plus sold PT Cimanggis Cibitung--its toll highway in Indonesia to reduce exposure

 
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Sime trapped in two unclear factors

 
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Pepsi continues its contract with CIHLDG for 10 more years

 
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Measat to take private at RM 4.20

 
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Tanjong to take private for 4.4 Billion ringgit

 
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郑丁贤‧二公子两则

郑丁贤‧二公子两则
2010-07-29 19:07

亲爱的马荷加尼:

我很希望能够像刘德祖一样,和时尚名媛在游艇上晒太阳,在豪华餐厅喝香槟,住月租10万美元的豪宅……,这才算是不虚此生。

请问,我怎样才可以过这种生活?

小强

亲爱的小强:

你羡慕刘二公子,这是步入资本主义世界的第一步,恭喜你,也欢迎你。

如果你是富二代,那么,基本上,这条道路,你已经走了一半。

然而,我相信你并不是,否则,也不必写信给我了。

但是,不要灰心,即使你自己来不及了,也要让下一代完成这个愿望。

要跻身名流社会,其实有一套公式可以跟随。

首先,要进入贵族学校,譬如二公子的母校哈罗公学,或者是伊顿公学;从小就接受薰陶,改变气质(财力若有不及,至少也要进入本地的国际学校)。

大学要选择美国的华顿商学院,或是哈佛商学院(牛津、剑桥之类的不要也吧,它们培养了太多的学究、反资本主义左派,现在不流行了)。

念一个MBA之外,最重要的是认识权贵家族,尤其是阿拉伯石油王子,或是中国贪官子弟、共青团留学生等。

在校期间,要努力和他们一起吃喝玩乐;没有小组学习没关系,最重要的是每周都要开派对,才会培养革命情感。

毕业后,务必要加入华尔街,汲取基金管理和各类金融衍生工具的窍门。

要多攀关系,经常为特殊朋友订餐厅,买香槟。

结交好莱坞女星和时尚名媛,设法搞一些桃色新闻,刻意让狗仔队偷拍。

只要能够做到这几点,成为名流指日可待。

亲爱的马荷加尼:

刘德祖算是什么? 只不过是有钱的公子哥儿吧了;媒体不需要抬举他。

雷峰

亲爱的雷峰:

我可不这么认为。

刘二公子德祖先生的出现,已经提升全球华人的形象,也大大改变了马来西亚华人的地位。

在过去,不管多么出色的华人,在西方国家,永远进入不了主流社会;即使有钱,有学问,也会遭到有意或无意的排斥和歧视。

不管成龙的电影多么成功,他的搭挡都是黑人;不管周润发多么英俊,片中女主角也不可能是金发碧眼。

这是白人的优越感,也折射了黄种人的自卑感。

因为集体自卑,所以李小龙在《猛龙过江》片中,必须把罗里士打得鼻青脸肿;甄子丹在《霍元甲》把英国人打成猪头炳,全球华人都拍烂手掌。

大家在虚拟世界中找到发泄的管道,通过电影来完成现实中不可能做到的事。

然而,当芭莉丝希尔顿娇媚的身躯,躺在刘二公子宽厚的胸膛;她的香唇触及二公子多肉的脸颊时,华人百年来的羞辱、委曲,刹那间,已经获得解放。

你说,我们不正是需要更多的刘二公子吗!
星洲日报/马荷加尼‧作者:郑丁贤‧《星洲日报》副总编辑‧2010.07.29

Bringing Hollywood to Malaysian shores

Bringing Hollywood to Malaysian shores

Friday July 30, 2010

KUALA LUMPUR: Making Hollywood movies in Malaysia is an important part of Jho Low’s plans to help attract investments to the country.

In an interview, Low tells of how he was getting his Hollywood friends like Academy Award winner Jamie Foxx and Leonardo diCaprio to use Malaysia as a location for movies.
DiCaprio: Among Low’s Hollywood friends who are interested in using Malaysia as a location for their future movies.

“They are very interested. It will have a tremendous impact on our tourism profile when this happens,” he said.

Low’s own entertainment company could be investing in such movies as they plan to set up a special entertainment fund that will invest in ventures from fashion to movies.

He also tells of another superstar friend – Usher – who wants to help him start a charity programme for children here to learn the business part of the entertainment industry.

Q: Where does the Wynton Group go from here?

A: Since I am now in the limelight, we expect to launch our new fund sometime in October. Firstly, there is an initial US$1bil real estate and hospitality fund, mainly for investing in real estate, hotels and hospitality projects around the world.

Secondly, we are also looking to launch a US$250mil entertainment fund because we believe there is some synergy between real estate and entertainment.

Q: Are we talking about movies, music or the whole spectrum?

A: The whole spectrum. So anything from fashion to movies and so forth. Lastly, we are also looking into a US$250mil general fund. When I mention all these fund sizes, it is initial first phase equity commitment that we are securing which means that actual fund sizes and purchasing power could be much larger.

An equity of US$1bil could have a potential purchasing power in excess of US$2bil or more after leverage. Coupled with this, our new headquarters will be based in Abu Dhabi and we have committed to 20,000sq ft in Sowwah Island in Abu Dhabi.

We are excited at the growth proposition of Abu Dhabi as a financial hub for the Middle East.

Q: Where is this fund set up?

A: It’s Cayman-based with a fund manager potentially based in either Abu Dhabi or the Caymans.

Q: What is this about you and Usher?

A: I have known Usher for a long time. I met him in New York and I was working with him on Usher’s New Look Foundation which is a charity that assists children who want careers in the business side of the entertainment industry.

I mentor these kids in terms of giving advise on writing business plans, which are things I learnt while at Wharton Business School. We have been talking for the last few months about bringing that programme to Malaysia.

Sometimes it appeals to the younger generation to get inspired by not business people but celebrities who have business acumen.

Q; Do you have a girlfriend?

A: Yes, my girlfriend is my work. Ask my friends and business partners and they will tell you that I sleep only three to four hours a day and I am always working. I love my work.

Q: A businessman once said that to find out where a business is based, all you have to do is to find out where the secretary is based. So, where is your secretary based?

A: My secretary travels with me everywhere I go. So I guess I am based all over the world, although my heart shall always be in Malaysia.

Low dispels talk he received RM500mil airbase job

Low dispels talk he received RM500mil airbase job

EXCLUSIVE
By WONG CHUN WAI, WONG SAI WAN and LESTER KONG

Friday July 30, 2010

Low: ‘I have been getting good feedback from Arabs who have invested in Malaysia’

KUALA LUMPUR: Well-connected businessman Jho Low has dispelled talk that he is involved in the redevelopment of the TUDM Sungai Besi airbase.

“I am not involved – that part I want to make clear. I understand that there are some allegations that I received a RM500mil contract for the Sungai Besi project. That is absolutely not true. I have no involvement whatsoever in the Sungai Besi project and from what I was made to understand, it is a project by 1MDB,” he said in an exclusive interview.

Low also spoke extensively about Middle East investments in Malaysia and what the country needed to do to get more Arabs to invest here.

Q: What do you think Malaysian companies can do in the Middle East?

A: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had great vision when he was Prime Minister with a lot of money that was spent building Malaysian infrastructure which also resulted in Malaysian-based construction companies that have gone on to be leaders in the global construction arena.

There are now many Malaysian companies doing sophisticated construction work in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and all over the Middle East. Overall, Malaysian companies have gained a good reputation there.


Q: What was your first involvement in a government-type project in Malaysia?

A: My first was actually the Iskandar Development Region investment. A friend from Khazanah called me and mentioned that they were looking to invite some Middle Eastern investors to be the core investors and asked if I knew of potential blue-chip investors.

So that is where it started. Eventually, both Mubadala and Kuwait Finance House’s USD1.2bil entry into Iskandar was a big boost for Malaysia.

They have shown their commitment as long-term investors and it is my view that Khazanah and Iskandar Investment Bhd have done a good job.

I have heard some arguments that projects in Iskandar are behind schedule. However, I have been told by a lot of major Middle Eastern developers that it is very important that large development projects are sustainable in the long term. It is better to take your time to be prudent with careful planning and proper execution as opposed to a rush job.

The Iskandar project so far has paced itself well as a long-term project, and the critics sometimes need to appreciate the fact that the objectives of Iskandar is to achieve long-term sustainability.

Q: Have you also been asked about other Malaysian investments?

A: I had also been asked by the previous chairman of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) for my input and opinion on RHB Bhd and its potential which I was very bullish on for the long-term. ADCB eventually invested a significant amount in the Malaysian bank. That is one of the key investments Abu Dhabi made in Malaysia which continues to show that Abu Dhabi is investing in Malaysia for the long-term.

Q: What about 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and what was your role in the Terengganu Investment Authority (TIA)?

A: I was involved in the setting up of TIA from January 2009 to mid-May 2009. The Yang di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Mizan (Zainal Abidin) was kind enough to ask me to assist, given my relationship with the Middle East and insight I had on how they had set up their sovereign wealth funds.

In addition to me, there was an important committee comprising key Malaysians such as Tan Sri Azlan Zainol amongst others, who provided important guidance. There was also input from blue-chip foreign consultants and advisers.

Subsequently, as I understand from news reports, TIA was federalised to become 1MDB. I don’t play any role in 1MDB, and I did not get compensated by 1MDB or any other government-owned entities although some blogs have mentioned that I did. That is untrue.

However, I do from time to time speak to friends in Khazanah and 1MDB to get their input and ideas on how to better facilitate investments from the Middle East to Malaysia or vice-versa.

Q: How did you get to know the Yang di-Pertuan Agong?

A: His Majesty’s sister Tunku Datuk Rahimah introduced us. She is the chairman of Loh & Loh Corporation Bhd, whom I met as a fellow shareholder of Abu Dhabi-Kuwait-Malaysia Investment Corporation (ADKMIC).

Q: How did you get involved in UBG Bhd and what is the latest on the sale to Petro Saudi?

A: In January 2008, I was invited to participate as a shareholder of ADKMIC. The other investors included Sheikh Sabah, Yousef Al Otaiba, and few other prominent Middle East and local investors. I had a 10% share.

This private investment company was set up for investments in Malaysia, and it participated in the UBG transaction because we saw UBG as a good company in terms of growth and the construction business. Un-fortunately, the world was hit by the financial crisis and infrastructure jobs in UAE slowed down.

We subsequently received an offer from Petro Saudi and we decided to exit this investment. We were informed by Petro Saudi that they believed that companies like Loh & Loh and Putrajaya Perdana had good potential to expand in Arabian markets.

Q: One of the biggest problems Malaysia has is attracting FDIs. What are the things we need to do?

A: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s recent announcement on liberalisation have been tremendously helpful in building investor confidence for Malaysia. However, there are some investors who are taking a wait-and-see attitude to be convinced of actual implementation.

Previously, there had also been complaints about bureaucracy but this has improved tremendously. I have been getting good feedback from a lot of Arabs who are investing in Malaysia and thus I am bullish in the long-term on our ability to attract FDIs.

Attracting FDIs is not just about going abroad and doing roadshows to sell publicly-listed shares. The FDIs that Malaysia should be pushing hard to attract are those which clearly indicate a commitment for the long-term which result in real multiplier effects and benefits the country.

Malaysia can also be more effective in locking in FDIs by having a more streamlined, coordinated and systematic approach in which heads of states, government officials and private businesses target key investors and offer attractive investment propositions in strategic areas for Malaysia which maximises the short-term economic impact for Malaysia, but also fits the bill of sustainable development in the long-term.

It is also important that all Malaysians make the extra effort of explaining to investors about the potential of Malaysia and clarify some of the negative perceptions of our country.